Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 030219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
919 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DIED OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL ADJUST THE POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH LATEST
PWAT FROM THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING AT 2.14 INCHES WITH MID LEVEL
RH OVER 75 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DECENT RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE BEFORE DAY BREAK UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY LOOK GOOD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP JUST PAST THE I-10
CORRIDOR. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C LA...MAINLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LEFT VCSH
THRU 01Z. OVERNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
09-13Z AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DAMP GROUND AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND S OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR THU. THUS...BEGAN VCTS ~14Z...WITH A PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA/MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS FROM 18-24Z FOR
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  74  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



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