Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 240523
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES...EXCEPT LFT-ARA WHERE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGS IT DOWN TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. THIS WILL
IMPROVE BASED ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE...STARTING IN SE TX
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM AROUND AUSTIN
TO PARIS, TEXAS THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA
A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN LOWER ACADIANA BY
SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS RUNNING HIGH WITH
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH LA AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER AS THE FRONT PASSES. A SCA HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT
FORECAST BETWEEN 07-12Z AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF THAT AFFECTED THE AREA LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO
QUICKLY EJECT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. ON ITS HEELS...A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROF IS POISED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF PROGGED TO
SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE WIND ADVISORY OVER ACADIANA CONTINUING
UNTIL 6 PM. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A FT POLK TO HOUSTON
LINE BY MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST OVER THE FAR SE MARINE ZONE BY 6 AM.
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS
ALREADY ENSUED THANKS TO THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE...AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TAKE
CARE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE 30S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL...WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE NORTH WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF PIVOTS THROUGH THE
AREA. ACCOMPANIED BY PERHAPS SOME DRY/MID LEVEL CLOUDS...THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AMID
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BECOMING
WEST OVERNIGHT AND FINALLY NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. A MORE PREVALENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  65  41  61  39 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  50  65  42  62  40 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  48  62  37  60  36 /   0  10  10  10  10
KLFT  54  65  42  60  39 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

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&&

$$







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