Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 260441
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1141 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
26/06Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few SHRA/TSRA developed just sw of KLCH during the past hour or
so with some sctd storms further sw off the se TX/sw LA coast.
With abundant moisture over the area and modest lift associated
with a cold front and upper low west of the region, cannot rule
out some isltd showers overnight so have gone ahead and inserted
VCSH at KLCH and KBPT. Otherwise, few changes for the 06Z TAFs
with the cold front expected to move through Monday evening.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 934 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

..Fall looks to be arriving late tomorrow...

UPDATE...
Isolated showers cont acrs sw La coastal parishes and the adjacent
coastal waters this eve. Overnight lows will drop into the lower
70s most locations but will remain a bit higher at the beaches.
Also look to see some overnight shwrs... they will stay mainly
south of the I-10 corridor. Latest sounding indicates precip water
has climbed above two inches.

Tomorrow will be the last day of summer "weather wise" and fall
looks to be finally arriving. Aftn temps acrs the region will
climb into the 90s ahead of the cold front which is now located
south of DAL/FTW metroplex. Shower activity incrg drg the aftn/
early eve hours w/ the approach of the front. The cold front looks
to move thru the lakes region in se Tx around the noon hour and
moves offshore drg the eve hours. Shwr actvty drawing to a close
on Tuesday with morning lows Wednesday starting out in the mid
60s. Enjoy

Current zones look fine at this time.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
26/00Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
A few SHRA/TSRA continue late this aftn but are expected to
diminish through the next couple of hours. Conditions are VFR acrs
the area with BKN/OVC mid and high clouds over se TX and more sctd
clouds acrs LA. Expect VFR to prevail through the period with the
exception of some patchy fog forming near KAEX again late
tonight. A cold front will move into the region Monday, and this
will bring VCTS to all terminals during the day, although the best
chc looks to be acrs se TX so included PROB30 for KBPT Monday
aftn. Lt and vrbl winds tonight will gradually trend more NEly on
Monday.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low is located over the northern plains along the
Canadian border, with an upper level trough extending down from
this system through the plains to an upper level low over the
southwest U.S. near the Mexican border. Low level southerly flow
is allowing Gulf moisture to stream ahead of the trough...and
daytime heating has combined with some of this moisture to
produce mainly scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over
Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas. Only isolated showers and
storms are occurring over eastern portions of the forecast area,
as an upper level low that is filling in over the Western Florida
Panhandle is brining in some mid level dry air.

Rua

DISCUSSION...
Summer-like conditions to give way to more fall like weather this
upcoming week.

The upper level low over the northern plains will continue to move
eastward to the eastern Great Lakes over the next couple of days,
with an upper level trough rotating around the low through the
plains and Mississippi valley to eventually the east coast. This
will help push a cold front into the forecast area late Monday and
into the coastal waters early Tuesday.

Ahead of the front, plenty of Gulf moisture will be found to
combine with the frontal lift to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Looks like best moisture feed and lift will be
found over western portions of the forecast area, and will have
slightly higher pops in that area for the next 36 hours.

Drier air will filter in on Tuesday behind the front, ending rain
chances for awhile.

Meanwhile, the upper level low will deepen as it slowly moves
toward the east coast from the middle latter part of the week, as
an upper level ridge amplifies over the middle part of the
country. Thus, a deep northerly flow will develop over the region,
and allow a dry continental airmass to settle over the forecast
area. The result will be the first, nice taste of fall weather
from Wednesday, through the end of the forecast period.

Rua

MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico that
is bringing mainly light onshore winds, will gradually break down
through tomorrow. A cold front will approach the coastal waters
late Monday, then through the coastal waters on Tuesday. A chance
of showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front.
Behind the front, rain chances will end a light to moderate
offshore flow will prevail for the remainder of the forecast
period.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  91  67  84 /  20  40  20  10
LCH  74  92  71  85 /  20  40  30  10
LFT  74  92  71  86 /  20  30  30  10
BPT  74  92  71  87 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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