Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 140919
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR REMAINS ABSENT OF ANY
PRECIP. SATELLITE DEPICTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES NOW ESTABLISHED.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
THUS MAINTAINING LOW END POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER...AND SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE NORM FOR TONIGHTS LOWS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR
MONDAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINS THIS
WEEK. DEEPENING UPPER TROF SIMILARLY PROGGED BY MODELS TO ADVANCE
THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COMBINATION OF FEATURES WILL
YIELD A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINS EARLY IN THE DAY...TRENDING DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL SEE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SYSTEM BUT THIS WILL BE SEEN MORE IN A DECREASE OF DEWPOINTS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE TO WARM ABOVE THE
NORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

DRY PATTERN FOLLOWING MONDAYS RAINS WILL BE DICTATED BY A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AMPLIFYING
WESTERN RIDGE YIELDING A EXTREMELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MID-WEEK. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TRANSLATES OVER AND EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW IS NOW REESTABLISHED OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF BRINGING A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY. A BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS DRY
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  55  70  44 /  20  40  70  10
LCH  68  57  72  48 /  20  30  50  10
LFT  68  58  71  49 /  20  40  60  10
BPT  71  59  75  50 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23


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