Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 181801
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CARRIED THE PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR
EXPECTED RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BIT OF A TROF EXTENDING SW-NE KINDA BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE DEMARCATION LINE
BETWEEN LOW CEILINGS (<1K FEET) AND VFR CIGS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE MVFR OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING IFR OR WORSE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT. LOCAL 88DS SHOW RAINS
LINGERING OVER MAINLY CNTL LA BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY
PASSED KAEX. AS FAR AS THE SRN SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
WATCH AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE GULF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE SERN
SITES ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE JUST RETAINED A VCSH MENTION THERE AS
TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO CARRY THIS PRECIP S OF THE AREA. EXPECT
PREVAILING RAINS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINS PUSHING NWD...AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ALSO WORKS INTO THE MIX.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OFF THE COAST MAKING FOR A MESSY
WEATHER PICTURE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND FILL IN SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AS WELL AS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR WHICH ARE BOTH SIGNALING RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...ONLY ADJUSTED DOWN
ONE TINY NOTCH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL...IT IS GOING
TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CEILINGS NOW
OVER OUR TERMINALS OF AEX AND BPT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW
OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE
INLAND AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON TAP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CARRYING VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS AT VARIOUS
TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  55  64  46  57 /  60  60  90  30  10
KBPT  69  57  66  47  58 /  50  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  50  70  90  50  10
KLFT  66  56  65  48  58 /  50  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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