Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 260340
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.MARINE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR INLAND
WATERWAYS AND BAYS AS LEVELS ARE RUNNING SUFFICIENTLY LOW ENOUGH
TO EXCEED CRITERIA AROUND THE UPCOMING LOW TIDE. LATEST GFS
SHOWING INCREASING WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH.
ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
AND EXTENDED THE CURRENT SCA. ALSO HOISTED CAUTION OVER THE INLAND
LAKES AND BAYS UNTIL EARLY MORNING FOR CALCASIEU LAKE AND NOON FOR
SABINE LAKE AND VERMILION BAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA
AND WILL BE HEADING THROUGH ACADIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS DRY, THE EFFECTS ARE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT AND
A GOOD DROP IN DEW POINTS. THE POLAR JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT.
DUE TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND UPSTREAM DEW POINTS, WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO.

GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED, ZONES TO FOLLOW.

MARINE...SCA LOOKS GOOD. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LOW WATER ADVISORY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE A DECISION OVER THER NEXT HOUR.
LEVELS WERE RUNNING A HALF FOOT BELOW PREDICTED NEAR HIGH TIDE AS
WINDS BECAME NORTHERLY. THAT SAID, WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING THRU SE TX AND WILL MOVE INTO SRN LA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS TO REMAIN UP INTO THE EVE HRS.
OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES TO HOLD AS VSBY TO STAY ABV P6SM AND
CLOUDS TO REMAIN ABV 200 THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT LOOKING SHORT WAVE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT...THAT IS CURRENTLY POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA...IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...ALLOWING MIXING FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE AIR
MASS...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH NO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE MAIN AFFECT TO SEE WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS PREVAILING. THIS SHOULD MEAN MAINLY SUNNY
DAYS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...AND SEASONALLY COOL NIGHTS.

BY MID WEEK...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF HELPING TO CONTINUE A WARMING
TREND...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME...MAIN DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH THIS FRONT...AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALSO.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IS NOTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL HELP INCREASE EAST PAC MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO...LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF SOME OVER-RUNNING
RAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

RUA

MARINE...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
HELP MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...SOME RIG REPORTS ALREADY SUGGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS...SO WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND NEAR SHORE ZONE AROUND
MARSH ISLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
REMAINING NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST.

EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  62  44  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  41  66  46  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  38  59  42  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  40  60  44  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE.

&&

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&&

$$







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