Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 160433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TAF SITES
AND SOUTH OF KAEX...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87  72 /  20  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  88  74  87  72 /  20  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  88  70  89  70 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  87  73  88  72 /  20  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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