Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 181804
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1204 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains stretched SW to NE
across the coastal waters and into the lower Atchafalaya.
Scattered convection has fired along/near the boundary this
morning, though there is much less coverage than was anticipated
earlier. PoPs were adjusted to fit latest radar/short term
guidance trends, which resulted in a net downward adjustment for
most of the area. Temperatures were also nearing or slightly
exceeding the previous forecast, and were raised accordingly.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1145 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/

AVIATION...

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon with
ceilings ranging from 1-2.5 kft. VCSH will be possible across the
entire area while KBPT/KLFT/KARA could see isolated VCTS through
00Z.

Ceilings will begin to decrease later this afternoon and are
expected to fall below IFR after 00Z. In addition to the low
stratus, fog is expected to begin developing around 00Z at all TAF
sites. The fog and stratus will likely result in prevailing
IFR/LIFR conditions from 06Z through 13-15Z Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/

AVIATION...A moist low level south to southwest flow will
maintain lower ceilings through the day as well as visibility
restrictions from BR/FG mainly through mid-morning. A few showers
can be expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical jet continues to stream moisture in from the
eastern Pacific as the warm front has push inland over the region.
This can be seen in the wide range in temperatures this morning
with lower 50s in the lakes region of southeast Texas with lower
60s down along the coast from Orange into Morgan City in south
central Louisiana. Areas of dense fog across a wide area of
southern Louisiana including the coastal waters. Areas of dense
fog have also spread into southeast Texas around Orange with fog
noted in Jasper. This is expected to become denser over the next
several hours. Showers are also continuing over south central
Louisiana and the adjacent coastal waters. In short it`s a mess
out there.

Conditions will improve through the late morning hours but the
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase
through the day with daytime heating. Look for areas of fog to
return this evening first along the coast then inland. The threat
for storms will also linger into the evening and overnight hours.
This weather pattern will continue into Tuesday ahead of a cold
front that will move through on Wednesday morning. The weather
will improve through the day on Wednesday as fog and showers exit
off to the east and northeast. At this time the heaviest rains
look to fall across northern Louisiana and Arkansas.

We are going to get a short break but rains return on Thursday
afternoon and continue into Friday morning ahead of a stronger
cold front that will push through. That front is expected to drive
temperatures back into the 30s by Sunday morning. In addition the
threat for rains will also linger over the weekend and into
Christmas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  61  73  60 /  20  30  40  70
LCH  70  64  74  61 /  40  20  30  50
LFT  69  66  75  64 /  50  20  20  70
BPT  70  64  74  60 /  40  30  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$



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