Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 020424
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1124 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EXITING ACADIANA.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL BE
DISSIPATING/EXITING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL RETURN THE AREA TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM SOUTH TEXAS CONVECTION EARLIER
TODAY HELD TOGETHER AS IT SPREAD OUTWARD...GENERATING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AS IT SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OR SO OF THE AREA...AS IT CONTINUES TO DO SO ACROSS EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS THIS IS WRITTEN. FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BAND
OF CONVECTION...WITH SMALLER CHANCES TO THE WEST FOR TRAILING
STRATIFORM RAINS. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BY 06Z...BUT DID LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF WATERS WHERE THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IS NOT AS FAST...AND THE BOUNDARY IS TAKING ON A TILT
LESS PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST. ALSO LEFT SMALL POPS INLAND FOR
THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAINS.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS
MANY OBS ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW THE PREVIOUS FCST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AREA
AND CENLA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES FARTHER NORTH. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT,
HOWEVER A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER MID
LVL AIR MASS TO MOVE IN AS WELL HELPING TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES
FROM THU INTO FRI. DURING FRI AFTERNOON A FEW MORE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK WEST, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW INTO THE 4TH. THE BIGGEST CAVEAT DURING THU AND
FRI WILL BE THE HIGHER APPARENT TEMPS (100-105) AS ACTUAL HI TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S TO POTENTIALLY MID 90S ACCOMPANIED WITH THE
LACK OF COOLING STORMS.

DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION.

NEXT WEEK GENERALLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTH.

MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS LOW THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  74  94 /  30  10  10  20
LCH  73  92  77  91 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  74  93  76  92 / 100  10  10  10
BPT  73  93  77  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23


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