Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 261524
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1024 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS...AND WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER LOWER ACADIANA ALONG
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. CARRYING LOW END POPS THROUGH TODAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SEABREEZE REMAINING THE PRIMARY
TRIGGER. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INHIBITED BY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF RELATIVELY DRY MID
LEVEL AIR. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES REQUIRED.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SSW WINDS 8-10
KTS AFTER 15Z. WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA ACROSS SC LA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PLACED VCTS FOR ARA/LFT BEGINNING 16Z AND
DIMINISHING BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CNTL GULF RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINTAINING A LIGHT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FLAT RIDGE IN
PLACE FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS LOCAL 88DS
NOT SHOWING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY SLIM TODAY WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
HELPING CAP AT LEAST THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ARE CARRIED ACROSS ACADIANA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED.
THIS PATTERN HOLDS INTO SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING LARGELY IN
PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOKS TO BE THE
HEAT WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S INLAND...AND APPARENT TEMPS
ECLIPSING THE 100-DEGREE MARK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING THE NEED TO ISSUE ANY HEAT-
RELATED PRODUCTS...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
IS PROGGED TO FURTHER DIG THE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE.
MEANWHILE IT WILL ALSO HELP SHOVE YET ANOTHER JULY COOL FRONT
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. COMBO OF THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THEN
LINGERING THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP SOMEWHERE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS FRONT SHOULD HELP
SHUT DOWN THE WEEKEND WARMTH WITH HIGHS BARELY HITTING 90.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS A SERIES OF DECENT SHORTWAVES DROPPING
THROUGH THE TROF CROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...
OTHER THAN SOME VARIABILITY NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. NO
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
KBPT  93  76  93  76  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
KAEX  96  73  96  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  93  76  92  76  94 /  30  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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