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000
FXUS64 KLCH 200458
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...WITH SOME BREAKS EVIDENT FARTHER TO THE EAST
OVER KAEX AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA TERMINALS. ALL SITES ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING MVFR...AND EXPECT THAT THESE CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS THUS FAR ON TARGET.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER N GULF WITH
LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST...KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW 5-10
MPH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECTING LOWER/MID 70S. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO CHANGES.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MVFR ALREADY PRESENT AT KLCH AND KBPT...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS 20-30KT LLJ AND ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STRATUS. ONSET
OF MVFR AT REMAINING SITES WAS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH LIKE TODAY...SPORADIC
MVFR OBS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACRS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS ATTM. AS SURFACE LOW OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS STATES HAS A FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WITH
A DRY LINE DRY INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION WITH BRISK WINDS. THIS WILL SETTLE DOWN
TOWARDS SUNSET AS WINDS LIFT OFF SURFACE. AN INTERESTING NOTE
AFTER TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACRS THE UPPER PLAIN STATES SEVERAL DAYS
AGO TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OVER 20 DEGREES AND ARE HOVERING IN
THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THE SUNRISE
BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SR. LOWS IN THE 70S.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
WITH BRISK WINDS 0N MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
OVER OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO WORK IT`S WAY INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA LATE ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
AND THE MOISTURE THAT WAS POOLING OVER THE REGION WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED WELL AT LEAST FOR THIS COMING
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  74  87 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  74  86  74  86 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  72  89  72  89 /  10  10  10  20
KLFT  73  88  72  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$