Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 280247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE END OF DAYTIME CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO ON LOCAL 88DS...EVERYTHING APPEARS TO BE FALLING INTO PLACE
WITH INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWING FAIRLY STAGNATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER E TX/LA/MS. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS HAS DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND S OF I-10. A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP FURTHER INLAND...THUS
20-25% SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 90S ONCE AGAIN...MAYBE
A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING
FROM ~104-109 SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING TO SEE MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS WHICH WILL PUSH THE ADVISORY
CRITERIOR...SO WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY RIDE THRU 7 PM.

FOR THE EVENING HOURS...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH OF I-10. FOR TUE & WED...MORE
OF THE SAME...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. DEWPTS MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER...BUT STILL EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES 103-106
RANGE. WITH THE RIDGE STILL OVERHEAD...20% OF SHRA/TSRA AT BEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY FOR SC LA AND COASTAL WATERS. THE WEAK COOL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING
OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX
VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FOR WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  98  77  98 /  20  20  10  20
LCH  77  95  78  96 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  96  77  96 /  20  20  10  20
BPT  76  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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