Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 130435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO BIG CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST...EXCEPT TO CHANGE THE TEMPO TO
PREVAILING FOR MVFR VSBYS AT KLCH. THIS LIGHT FOG/HAZE SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z SUNDAY MORNING. REMAINING SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ALL SITES VFR
AWAY FROM CONVECTION TOMORROW. DID ADD VCTS TO THE COASTAL SITES
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INSERT PROB OR TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING/PLACEMENT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOWS ALL OF LATE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA HAS NOW DISSIPATED
..WITH ISO SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.
WITH FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING AT LEAST AN ISO CROP OF
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THE COAST...TYPICAL FOR MID JULY.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SE TX. WILL TEMPO TSTMS
AT KBPT THROUGH 02Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO OTHERWISE PREVAIL HERE AND
AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH DID INSERT A TEMPO MVFR FOR LIGHT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLCH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HELD OFF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SW LA/SE TX FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEVERAL TSRA & NUMEROUS OUTFLOW COLLISIONS
FORMING MORE TSRA...MOVING WSW OVER THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH GREATLY BY 8 PM AND DIMINISHED BY 10 PM.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER OK EAST ACRS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRES EXTENDS FM NC WEST TOWARD E TX KEEPING WINDS MOSTLY LT AND
VRBL. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS CNTL AND S CNTL
LA...MOVING SW. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 PM HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S ACRS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS.

DISCUSSION...
SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF CURRENTLY OVER
THE ERN GULF TREKS WEST BENEATH IT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDELY SCT TO SCT AFTN TSTMS AGAIN
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACRS THE NRN GULF. AFTN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
OVER SRN ONTARIO DIGS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEEPENING TROF WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIP
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NR 2 INCHES
TUESDAY. THIS AMPLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND LOW LVL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACRS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR IF EVEN THAT FAR.
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH CHANGE IN THE WAY OF
TEMPERATURES...AND MODELS PROGS EVEN SHOW DRIER AIR STAYING WELL
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...HELPING TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY NR 90 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND
LOW SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  93  76  93 /  40  30  10  30
KBPT  76  94  75  92 /  40  20  20  30
KAEX  75  95  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
KLFT  76  93  75  92 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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