Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 282100
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Sctd showers and storms have developed acrs the area this aftn
due to interactions among nmrs boundaries within a warm, moist
and unstable airmass. Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows the
persistent weakness aloft between ridges over the swrn states and
off the se coast. A circulation was also noted over the wrn Gulf
with a weakening impulse on the east side of this feature moving
toward the LA coast. At the sfc, high pres extends east to west
acrs the nrn Gulf with light s/sw winds over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Late aftn convection will gradually diminish through early
evening, with the loss of daytime heating. Residual mid or high
lvl clouds will gradually decrease overnight, and some patchy fog
could be possible late tonight especially in areas that received
rainfall today. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions can be
expected with low temperatures in the mid/upr 70s.

Could see a bit of an uptick in convection over our sern zones
late tonight into early Friday as the disturbance over the nrn
Gulf approaches. However, model guidance shows this feature
continuing to weaken as it becomes sheared. Otherwise, little
change expected through the weekend with a primarily diurnally-
driven convective pattern to continue. The weakness aloft will
slowly become more oriented sw-ne as the subtropical ridge off the
se coast begins to build west. Widely sctd showers and storms will
be possible nr the coast early in the day, then transition inland
and become more sctd with the interaction of the sea/lake/bay
breezes. Expect overall coverage to trend downward somewhat into
early next week as ridging continues to build over the area.
Typical summertime temperatures can be expected with lows in the
mid/upper 70s and highs in the lower 90s. Daily heat index values
should remain below advisory criteria, but will still run in the
100-106 degree range.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pres will remain over the nrn Gulf of Mexico
through the period. This will result in a continuation of lt to
modt sly winds and low seas. Weak low pres will continue over the
region, resulting in widely sctd to sctd showers and tstms mainly
from late night into early morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  94  75  94 /  30  20  20  40
LCH  77  93  78  92 /  10  30  10  40
LFT  76  93  77  93 /  20  40  20  50
BPT  77  93  78  94 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



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