Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180849
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR DEPICTING JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVER EAST TEXAS JUST CLIPPING OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
STRATOFORM PRECIP EXTENTS EAST FROM MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INCOMING EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES AT BPT AT 18Z...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM
AT AEX COMING IN AT 1.8 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY FROM CATEGORICAL FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO JUST A CHANCE ADVANCING
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. INCREASED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING HEAVIEST RAINS OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE
BEAUMONT AREA. QPF SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES.

WITH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SHORTWAVE AND AMPLIFICATION OF MID-CONUS
TROF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
SHUNT THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE GULF WATERS RESULTING IN DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH EXTENT OF
DRIER AIR INCOMING...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEW WEEK...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SIMPLY CARRYING LOW END POPS
AT THIS TIME. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER FROPA TO
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE LOOKING
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. THIS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE...IN CONCERT WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ADVANCING THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DISPLACE SOUTHWARD
WITH PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-CONUS
RIDGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  86  71  89 /  80  30  30  10  10
KBPT  82  72  85  73  88 /  80  50  50  10  10
KAEX  85  69  87  69  91 /  40  20  20  10  10
KLFT  85  72  86  71  89 /  60  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.