Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KLCH 041019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
419 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...A surface trough remains along the Louisiana coast
this morning, however the trough is a bit farther east than it was
24hrs ago. Aloft an upper low is still slowly southeast over
Northwest Mexico.

Today, overrunning rain is expected to continue, however the
heavier axis is expected to mainly over Acadiana. Accumulations
are expected to be lighter than over the past 24hrs, however 1 to
3 inches may still occur on areas that have already received 2 to
8. With the 2 to 4 over Lafayette and southward and the potential
for another few inches the flash flood watch was expanded east.
Northern Hardin, Tyler, and Northern Jasper missed most of the
rain over the past day with totals under 3 inches. The heaviest
rain is also expected to generally miss these zones over the next
couple of days, but it is still not totally out of the question
some locations here may pick up a few more inches, so kept the
watch going.

Tonight and into Monday, the upper low will gradually turn east
then speed up while moving northeast. Another surface low will
develop along the South Texas Coast and move northeast. This low
is expected to move onshore in Jefferson County or Cameron Parish
then keep on northeast. To the right of the low warm and moist air
will spill in from the gulf. To the left cool over running rain
will continue. Areas across Acadiana and to the east may be
unstable enough to have a few isolated strong to severe storms.

Behind the low during Monday afternoon or night a drier air mass
will move in ending the rain into Wednesday.

By mid week an arctic air mass will spill out of the plains into
the gulf coast. Scattered showers will be possible along and ahead
of the front, but the main story will be the cold temps behind the
boundary. The end of the week temperatures will run much below
normal with a couple of nights of freezing temperatures expected.
Most of the area will fall below freezing by Friday Morning,
possibly even at the coast. Wind chills may be in the upper teens
to mid 20s. High temperatures will be around 20 degrees below
normal Friday with another freeze possible Saturday morning.


.MARINE...As low pressure develops along the South Texas coast
later today the pressure gradient will gradually tighten. East
winds will increase into Monday Morning as the low approaches.
West winds will remain above 20kts in the gulf waters through
early Tuesday.

A very strong cold front will move across the region Thursday.
Strong offshore winds will occur late in the week with gale force
gusts possible.


AEX  53  49  57  48 /  80  80 100  40
LCH  59  53  62  51 / 100 100  90  20
LFT  64  56  70  53 / 100  80  90  30
BPT  59  53  62  50 /  90 100  90  10


LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for LAZ027>033-

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ180-201-215-

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from noon CST today through late
     tonight for GMZ450-452-455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ470-472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from noon CST today through this
     evening for GMZ470-472.



PUBLIC...05 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.