Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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442
FXUS64 KLCH 292054
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
354 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS IS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE RED RIVER OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN SITUATED IN NORTHER LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ALL DAY
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY DIFFICULT AND
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AS WELL WITH WILDLY VARYING
AMOUNTS. WHEREVER BANDS SETUP...WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILES THEY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

TONIGHT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE NORTHWEST OF A
ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT LINE AND THUS WILL START THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THESE AREAS TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST TOMORROW AND THE WATCH WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST TOMORROW FOR
THE SAME POTENTIAL. RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS
WELL.

FRONT GRADUALLY PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TOO EARLY
FOR ME TO EXTEND BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING.

RIVER GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVERS TO GO INTO
MINOR FLOOD WITH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SABINE AND CALCASIEU RIVERS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE OR HIGHER FLOODING.

STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS
DEVELOPING...WATER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL WATER BODIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  81 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  83  72  82 /  20  60  60  70
BPT  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...27



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