941
FXUS64 KMEG 140712
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
212 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Scattered thunderstorms continue each day, mainly in the
  afternoon hours to early evening hours. Some storms could
  produce heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain across the Mid-South, with
  high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
  will likely exceed 105 degrees for some by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A bit more of an active overnight period with thunderstorms
moving across NE AR and the MO Bootheel. Storms have been able to
tap into some lingering instability, but are expected to continue
moving out of the area with southwesterly flow aloft. Will keep
some PoPs running mainly north of I-40 through the remainder of
the early morning hours, but the best coverage will likely remain
just north of our CWA. In addition, some patchy fog could develop
through sunrise near bodies of water and locations that have
experienced rainfall over the past few hours, with improvements
shortly after sunrise. For the remainder of the day, we will turn
our eyes westward to a lingering MCV as it slowly pushes towards
the area. While our daily, afternoon thunderstorm trend will
continue, this could bring an additional push for more coverage of
storms by the afternoon to early evening. Will continue to carry
40-70% PoPs, with the highest chances along and north of the I-40
corridor. Similar to the past few days, can`t rule out a strong
storm or two with periods of heavy rainfall (rainfall rates > 2")
and strong winds (30 to 50 mph). Coverage should wane following
sunset, with patchy fog in some locations again overnight.

By tomorrow, largely zonal flow aloft with little forcing will be
the main story for the remainder of the week. What this will mean
for the Mid-South is a continued hot and humid pattern, with
daily, afternoon thunderstorm chances. Surface southwesterly winds
will allow some additional WAA to the area by midweek, with high
temperatures creeping into the mid-90s by Wednesday and Thursday
for much of the area. This coupled with dew point temps remaining
in low to mid 70s will likely warrant the need for heat headlines
for at least some portion of the Mid-South. These oppressive
conditions may continue into Friday, although the forecast does
become somewhat more uncertain heading into the weekend. Of note,
through this week a weak disturbance will be trekking across the
Gulf, eventually moving into the deep south by the end of the
week. While no direct impacts are expected to the Mid-South, the
influx of moisture from the Gulf to the area will be something to
watch and observe how guidance evolves. Majority of guidance does
have a stout high pressure building into the region around this
time, which should curb any type of issues for our area. As such,
will continue to carry daily, afternoon thunderstorm chances
(30-50%) into the weekend with highs generally spanning the low to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A complex of TSRAs will affect JBR over the next couple of hours.
A eastward propagating thunderstorm outflow may trigger
additional SHRAs or isolated TSRAs near MEM through 08Z.
Thereafter, mainly dry conditions at all sites through 14/18Z.

MKL will see a mix of MVFR/IFR VSBYs due to fog through the
overnight period. Afternoon TSRAs will be mainly scattered and
confined to MEM, MKL, and JBR. Southerly winds will remain 3 to 7
knots through the period.

AC3

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

No fire weather concerns anticipated for the foreseeable future.
Hot and humid conditions will continue with minRH values remaining
above 40%. Daily, scattered thunderstorm chances are expected.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AC3