Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 181522
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1022 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.UPDATE...

At 10 AM around the Mid-South, temperatures are generally in the
lower 80s with most of the region experiencing sunny conditions.
These conditions will continue throughout the day, with
temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon.
No updates are necessary at this time.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Drier air is beginning to work into the Mid-South early this
morning as a weak cold front slowly moves through the area. This
front isn`t moving fast and will take a while to clear the CWA,
but veered winds ahead of the surface boundary will limit low-
level convergence and keep rain chances at a minimum today. A few
sprinkles are possible this morning, but otherwise dry weather is
anticipated across the CWA today. Temperatures will approach
climatological norms, topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Fortunately, the drier air should limit heat indices to 90-95
degrees across most of the area.

Dry weather will continue this evening, but an area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop over MO overnight. Should
this complex of storms develop, it will move southeast,
potentially affecting northeast AR and the Bootheel toward
sunrise. Low PoPs were included west of the Mississippi River to
account for this scenario. Moisture will creep back into the Mid-
South for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain in the
upper 80s and lower 90s on Saturday and may be a few degrees
warmer on Sunday. This may result in heat indices at or just above
100 degree both days. The airmass will be rather unstable this
weekend so diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible both
days. That said, we`ll see a mid/upper-level ridge begin to build
over the weekend, limiting the coverage of any afternoon storms.

By Monday, the mid-level ridge is fairly expansive, extending from
the Southern Plains into the western Atlantic. We`ll continue the
slight chance for diurnal convection, but most of the area should
remain dry. The presence of the synoptic ridge should help limit
high clouds during the day but we should see a moderate Cu field
develop by 18z. Otherwise, eclipse viewing conditions don`t look
too bad. Be sure to check back as moisture is a field that is
often handled poorly bad by model guidance. Modified the hourly
temperature grids immediately following the eclipse to handle the
anticipated cooling..

The global models move the upper-level cyclone currently over
situated Cuba into the western Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning
but it remains to be seen if this feature will be a player in
gradually adding some deeper moisture to the column by midweek.
Looking to our north, a mid-latitude shortwave trough is progged
to slide east across the Ohio Valley late Tuesday. This will
depress the ridge sufficiently to support scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. It will also drive a cold
front into the CWA Wednesday or Wednesday night. PoPs will ramp up
as this feature moves through the Mid-South. Drier and slightly
cooler air is forecast to move into the CWA on Thursday, pushing
rain chances south of the area to end the work week. Afternoon
temperatures are forecast to fall back into the mid 80s Thursday
and Friday with overnight lows in the 60s.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should persist for the entire forecast period.
Winds will be mainly from the west at around 5 knots for much of
the forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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