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000
FXUS64 KMEG 191130 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a 1027 mb ridge
of high pressure centered over Virginia and the Carolinas. A cold
front extends from the Great Lakes region back through portions of
Kansas. Meanwhile, the Mid-South is on the western edge of surface
and upper level ridging with mostly clear skies prevalent early
this morning. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South
range from the lower 40s to lower 50s with the coolest temperatures
over portions of West Tennessee and North Mississippi.

Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the
Lower Mississippi Valley Today into Friday resulting in continued
rain free weather across the forecast area. Highs this afternoon
and Friday are expected to be in the 70s with lows tonight in the
middle 40s to lower 50s.

Surface and upper level ridging is expected to shift east by Friday
night with southwest flow aloft returning to the region. Short
term models suggest a potential for a few isolated showers and or
thunderstorms mainly west of the Mississippi River Saturday
afternoon. However, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms
should hold off until Saturday night into Sunday as an upper
level trough and associated cold front begins to approach the
region. Long term models are initially in decent agreement as the
upper level trough approaches but diverge as an upper level low
develops at the base of a deep upper level trough. The ECMWF has
been trending a bit slower than the operational GFS and have
blended rain chances between the solutions until models come into
better agreement.

As the upper level low departs, another reinforcing cold front
will move through the region by next Tuesday with cooler air
filtering into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Highs may potentially
struggle to reach 60 degrees with lows in the 40s and perhaps some
30s especially for mid to late next week.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

VFR and light winds to continue through the next 24 hours.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$