Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 310824
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. BR/FG LOOKS MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AT BOTH MKL AND TUP DUE TO INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. IFR
CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT TUP. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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