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000
FXUS64 KMEG 182003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
THERE IS NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEK WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME OCCURRING ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE RISK
REMAINS RATHER SMALL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (18/18Z-19/18Z)

IFR CEILINGS AT KTUP AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 21Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES TIL 00Z. STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP /
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER
WILL BE IFR OR MVFR. INDICATED BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...AND
KJBR WITH CEILINGS AT 1000 FT AGL WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5 MILES IN
FOG. AT KTUP...INDICATED IFR WITH CEILINGS 800 FT AGL AND
VISIBILITIES 3 SM BR. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18/16Z. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON SW 6-8 KTS EXCEPT STARTING OUT FROM THE SE AT KJBR.
WINDS TONIGHT FROM THE SE AND S 3-6 KTS. AFTER 19/14Z WINDS S-SW
8-13 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  89  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
MKL  68  88  69  88 /  30  10  10  10
JBR  69  88  70  86 /  10  10  20  30
TUP  69  89  68  89 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$