Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 300000
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
700 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to increase pops and for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level shortwave will continue to move across the Mid
South this evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue to push across the area this evening with the greatest
potential across southern west Tennessee and north Mississippi. A
few strong to severe wind gusts are possible this evening as
moderate to strong instability remains in place ahead of the line
of storms. Storms should end by midnight with mainly dry
conditions anticipated late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Temperatures will cool quickly behind any convection.

Updated zones and grids have been sent.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

.Currently...

Low status clouds, which are typically rare for an
afternoon in late July in the Mid-South, have finally begun to mix
out. These low clouds have kept temperatures below average thus
far today, but expect temperatures to increase to near average
over the next few hours as some clearing continues. Current
surface analysis depict a surface front moving through Central
Arkansas while a upper level shortwave is clearly over Eastern
Oklahoma using satellite imagery. Storms, some severe, have begun
to fire along and ahead of the surface boundary in Arkansas and
continue to slowly track towards the Mid- South.

.Short term...

The latest run of the HRRR suggests the convective complex
currently over Central Arkansas holding together long enough to
impact the Mid-South. Clearing ahead of this complex will result
in a very moist and unstable atmosphere supportive of strong
thunderstorms. Dewpoints are currently in the mid to upper 70s
and CAPE values could increase to around 4000 j/kg as storms near.
The main threat with any storms today will be straight line winds.
Small hail will also be a concern but with KNQA estimating a -20
degree height at 27,500 ft, large hail seems less likely.
Precipitation chances will remain overnight as the upper level
disturbance weakens and moves through the Mid-South. Tomorrow and
Sunday will be much like today as several shortwave disturbances
move through the Mid-South. Strong storms and heavy rainfall will
be possible each day with temperatures near to slightly below
average.

.Long term...

Upper level heights will start to build over the Central U.S.
late in the weekend. By early next, this broad upper high will
extend to over the MSV Region. Southerly flow near the surface
will continue to pull warm moist air into the lower levels of the
atmosphere. This will result in a return to above average
temperatures and increased humidity. Heat index values above 100
degrees are likely from Monday throughout the workweek. However, a
high moisture content will result in possible diurnally driven
thunderstorms each day. Also of note, the NHC has identified two
areas of concern in the Atlantic Ocean and have given them a low
and medium chance of cyclone formation in the next five days.
However, these disturbances are expected to encounter a less
favorable environment as they near the Americas.

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Set

Numerous storms will continue to impact the KMEM and KTUP sites
this evening...with scattered storms around KJBR and KMKL. Storms
may produce strong wind gusts and significantly reduced vsbys as
they reach KTUP later this evening. Storms should end areawide
later this evening with cigs/vsbys returning to VFR. There will be
a period of northwest winds at 7 kts or less for a few hours
behind convection before becoming light southwesterly again. Patchy
fog will be possible towards sunrise which may again reduce vsbys.

Another active day expected by Saturday afternoon with numerous
showers and thunderstorms impacting the TAF sites again as another
shortwave moves through the Mid South. Winds will remain light
southwesterly.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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