Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KMEG 310455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1155 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016


Updated to include 06Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 929 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

GOES IR imagery showed a shortwave lifting east through north
central AR at midevening. Gradually-weakening showers and
thunderstorms were noted on radar over east central AR. This
activity was making slow progress east. NAM Bufr soundings
depicted a dry layer below 850mb across the Midsouth,
overspreading a developing steep thermal boundary layer

Expect the showers with isolated thunder to continue east, rooted
in a layer near 850mb, before weakening or dissipating late

Following a few updates earlier this evening, forecast remains on
track at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 658 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/


Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/


Very warm temperatures but less humid conditions have prevailed
across the Mid South this Memorial Day holiday under partly to
mostly sunny skies. A mid level shortwave over the Arklatex this
afternoon will lift slowly northeast through Tuesday. This feature
will help to enhance isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms...especially along and west of the Mississippi River
from later this afternoon through Tuesday. Moderate instability
this afternoon west of the Mississippi River could support a few
strong storms into early evening. Instability should wane later
this evening and overnight...reducing the threat for strong
storms. As daytime heating ensues again on Tuesday and the low
level airmass moistens further...a few more strong thunderstorms
will be possible again on Tuesday afternoon into early evening.

By mid upper level low pressure system over the
southwest United States will move slowly eastward towards the Mid
South. Deeper moisture will be drawn northward into the area ahead
of this feature. This will help to increase chances for showers
and thunderstorms over the region...with the greatest potential
expected areawide by Thursday as a weak frontal boundary drops
into the area and stalls. This should help provide a focus for
storm development. Considering increasing instability but modest
shear...a few more strong to potentially pulse severe storms will
again be possible. Overall the threat for significant severe
weather appears very low due to lack of stronger upper support and
shear. High temperatures should be a few degrees cooler due to
increased cloud cover and rain potential...with overnight lows
remaining mild.

The upper low stays to our west through the weekend with the
stalled frontal boundary remaining over the area. This will keep
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the
extended forecast period with near normal temperatures and
humidity expected.



The main concern within the 24 hr TAF period is isolated thunderstorm
activity tomorrow. Added VCSH for the next few hours at KMEM and
KJBR to account for shower activity moving into the region.
Showers will continue to weaken as they move closer to the MS
River. A slow moving upper level shortwave will move through the
region tomorrow increasing chances for isolated thunderstorm
activity. Expect thunderstorm coverage to be greater along and
west of the MS River. Only had enough confidence to add VCTS at all
four sites due to the isolated nature of these storms.



.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.