Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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439
FXUS64 KMEG 210818
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
218 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An area of rain continues to spread eastward across the Mid-South
early this morning. The rain is associated with an upper level
low pressure system that will track eastward from East Texas into
Louisiana by late this afternoon. As a result, rain will spread
across the entire Mid-South over the next couple of hours. By mid-morning,
the best chances for rain will shift east across areas of West
Tennessee near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi.
During the afternoon, expect redevelopment of showers to occur due
to diurnal heating. Best chances will occur south of a line from
Forrest City, Arkansas to Jackson, Tennessee. Although, can`t rule
out a shower developing at any given location at any given time
this afternoon due to the proximity of the upper level low.
Temperatures will be cooler today with highs remaining in the 60s
due to the shower activity and cloud cover. However, this is still
about 6-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.

The upper level low will begin to sink southeastward tonight and
will be located across the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning. As
a result, chances for showers will begin to diminish from
northeast to southeast across the CWA tonight into Wednesday. Some
clearing may begin to occur late tonight across Northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. If clearing takes place,
expect fog to quickly develop possibly becoming dense by Wednesday
morning.

Upper ridging will begin to occur on the back side of the
departing upper low and surface winds will turn back around to the
south. This will allow temperatures to creep back into the 70s for
highs on Wednesday.

Strong warm air advection on Thursday will bring high temperatures
back to into the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

Friday will be another warm day across the Mid-South ahead of an
approaching cold front. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s
across Northeast Arkansas to around 80 degrees across Northeast
Mississippi. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may begin to
develop during the afternoon hours on Friday across Northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee.

The chances for thunderstorms will shift east Friday evening to
West Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi. Cooler temperatures will
begin to filter into the area behind the front. Lows will be in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Cool high pressure will build over the region for the weekend.
Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the lower to mid 30s which
is near normal for this time of year.

Above normal temperatures will return for the beginning of next
week as a warm front will move through the area Sunday Night.
Highs on Monday will be back into the 60s. Chances for rain may
occur ahead of the warm front Sunday Night into early Monday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF cycle

Current VFR conditions will be ending soon as low clouds and rain
start to move into western sections of the forecast area and then
gradually move east through early Tuesday afternoon. While the
rain should end before Tuesday evening, low clouds will remain in
place through the end of the forecast period. Winds will remain
from the south at 5 to 10 knots for much of the period except over
northwest sections of the forecast area where be more from the
northeast at around 5 knots.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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