Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 281104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

A large upper level height ridge will remain the dominate weather
feature for the Midsouth for most of this week.

This upper ridge was centered over the Carolinas early this
morning, but will retrograde to the southern plains by midweek in
response to height falls over the northeast U.S.  Above normal
temperatures to continue, despite the passage of a weak back door
cold front Wednesday into Thursday.

Minimal thunderstorm coverage expected today, with a continued
slight reduction in precipitable water (PW) values. PW values edge
up slightly toward midweek, but thunderstorm coverage should
remain limited under the upper ridge. Given the positive midlevel
height anomalies, official forecast max temps are slightly above
00Z model blends.

ECMWF and GFS show upper level energy arriving to the Pacific
northwest this weekend, eventually resulting in downstream height
falls over the plains. Such a pattern suggest more seasonal temps
and perhaps bump in rain chances as we enter the second week of




12Z TAF Set

Fog is currently reducing conditions at KMKL to LIFR/IFR. Fog
should lift by 15Z. Expect fog to redevelop after 5Z at KMKL.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to occur over the next 24
hours. Can`t rule out some isolated thunderstorms developing along
and north of I-40 this afternoon. Not enough confidence to include
VCTS wording at KMEM, KMKL and KJBR. Easterly winds between 6-8
KTS will occur today. Speeds will become light after 1Z.




.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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