121
FXUS64 KMEG 012050
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry and warm conditions will persist through Thursday afternoon.
Thereafter, a cold front will move into the region and bring
unsettled weather to the Mid-South through this weekend. Expect
highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s. Unsettled weather may
persist through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Near record high temperatures are being reported across the Mid-
South at this hour. Readings are generally in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees. The latest GOES East Visible Imagery reveals a
weak MCV swirling over north central Arkansas. An area of showers
and thunderstorms has formed on the northeast side of this
feature and is lifting NE in southern Missouri. Some outflow from
this activity could move into eastern Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel, but coverage should remain below 20 percent through
early evening.

Dry conditions will persist overnight as weak upper level ridging
remains in place. A southern stream shortwave will traverse
the ArkLaTex Region tomorrow morning and lift north into the
Lower Mississippi Valley in the afternoon hours. A decaying MCS
over the ArkLaTex may reemerge as an MCV tomorrow afternoon and
lift northeast into the Mid-South by late afternoon. With up to
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE on hand and enhanced low level vorticity, a
few strong to severe storms are possible late tomorrow afternoon
and evening. In fact, a few SHARPpy RAP soundings suggest a
marginal threat of damaging winds. This activity will likely
persist through at least Friday morning.

By Friday afternoon, a cold front will approach the region from
the west and likely stall near the I-40 corridor. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
Another reinforcing front will push into the region on Saturday
and keep 30 to 40 PoPs over the region as a result.

Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday into early next week
as a series of shortwaves translate through the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Highs will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR across the Mid-South this morning. An MCV over western AR
will track across NE AR and the MO Bootheel this evening and this
feature could kick off a few SHRAs and perhaps a TSRA. Not
confident enough to add to the JBR TAF attm but something to
watch. Otrw expect quiet weather to continue into Thursday
afternoon when the next disturbance will push into the area with
isolated-scattered SHRAs and TSRAs.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...SJM