Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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109
FXUS64 KMEG 020155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE PLANNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL
IN PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. STORMS NOT MOVING MUCH
PRODUCING A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN. SO PROBLEM IS IT STORMS STAY
OVER ONE AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
MEMPHIS...TO MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALMOST A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THESE
STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CAMDEN TENNESSEE
TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. MODELS INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE WET AND COOL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AS
A RESULT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT
AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HAVE ADDED POPS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

TSRA WAS SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
WEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 2330Z. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POISED
ROUGHLY ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE MS RIVER...WHILE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TSRA WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.

BOTH 18Z NAM AND 22Z RUC MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MEM NEAR 06Z. DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE 18Z
NAM AND 18Z GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A MEM/MKL LINE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AIDED BY
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT AT FL350. PERIODS OF MVFR AND
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH HAVEN/T GONE AS PESSIMISTIC WITH
CIGS AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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