Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 021111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.