Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270359
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1059 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to add 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...This morning`s disturbance has moved well east of the
Mid-South. Skies have cleared for the most part and temperatures
have climbed to the upper 70s and lower 80s with dewpoints in the
upper 50s making for another very comfortable day. The next upper
level disturbance is pushing through Missouri with showers and a
few thunderstorms developing near and south of the I-44 corridor.

Tonight...The upper level disturbance will push through
overnight. Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to continue to
develop and push into Northeast Arkansas this evening spreading
east across the northern tier of the Mid-South overnight. Elevated
instability is pretty meager so do not expect much in the way of
thunder at this time though a few rumbles are possible. Rain
chances will taper off from west to east later tonight. Best
chances will be along the MO/KY borders with only a slight chance
in Memphis. Lows will be in the 60s.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...A few showers are possible near
the TN River early then clearing skies as another reinforcing dry
surface high builds in behind the departing system. Another
spectacular June day on tap for Tuesday with highs in the 80s and
very comfortable humidities. Tuesday night will be clear with
lows in the 60s...a few 50s in the cooler spots. By Wednesday the
upper flow transitions from a NW to a more zonal flow and the
surface high tracks from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic. As
a result surface winds turns southerly and humidity levels start
their inevitable upward climb though no rain is expected on
Wednesday. Much milder Wednesday night under light southerly
flow.

Thursday through Monday...By Thursday dewpoints will be back up
to around 70F and we should start to see some afternoon showers
and thunderstorms across at least north MS spreading further north
on Friday. A cold front presses south toward the Mid-South Friday
night into this weekend with multiple upper level disturbances
moving through. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place and
as a result rain chances look pretty healthy for the upcoming
weekend.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

A shortwave trough over Missouri will drop into Arkansas/Tennessee
overnight into Tuesday morning bringing rain shower chances to
JBR, MKL, and perhaps MEM. VFR conditions are anticipated to
prevail through much of the period with light winds increasing to
NE to ENE winds between 5-7 kts and becoming light by Tuesday
evening.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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