Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251734
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
PLACE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MISSOURI. THIS IS PRODUCING
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
NORTH OF I-40. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY...5-10 MPH EAST OF THE MS
RIVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

TODAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LIFTED INDEX VALUES ACTUALLY FALL TO NEAR
ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 18Z-00Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS...NOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW ARKANSAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY. WILL ALSO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE INSTABILITY ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. NW WINDS WILL ACTUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOW CLOUDS
WILL INVADE THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...BEGINNING TO THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A
WHILE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NEAR PARIS TO AROUND 50 IN CLARKSDALE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT PERIOD TRANSITIONING
FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT FROM SOME 20S ALONG THE TN RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS OVER 20KT. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURING AT MEM AND
MKL....SHOULD BEGIN AT TUP IN AN HOUR OR TWO...AND HAVE ENDED AT
JBR. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SOME GUIDANCE HINTING THAT LIGHTENING IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE TS AT ANY STATION FOR NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACTUALLY OCCURS. PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.
SHOWERS SHOULD END AREA WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR LEVELS IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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