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000
FXUS61 KRNK 172319
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
719 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EVENING UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING HOURLY GRIDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES
RADIATE DOWN TONIGHT...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
ALSO ADDED FROST TO THE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE TO COINCIDE
WITH FROST ADVISORY.


AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE SUCH
THAT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN AND MIN TEMPS MAY SLIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.
THUS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH EVEN ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT FOR
FROST...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY TO OUR COMMON BORDER
WITH THE RALEIGH WFO. ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH...TEMPS MAY VERY WELL REACH 32F OR BELOW AGAIN...BUT WILL
JUST KEEP A FROST INSTEAD OF A FREEZE FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST CONUS
DISTURBANCE...BUT PROBABLY NOT IN ENOUGH TIME TO STUNT DECOUPLING.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH REGARDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTHEAST CONUS DISTURBANCE TRACK...SUCH THAT SOME SLT CHC POPS WERE
NECESSARY ACROSS NW NC BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TREND OF DEVELOPING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH
EURO/GFS SHOW A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN FL BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST UNDER
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO CHC OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED CHANCE THRU MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
WETTER SOLUTION THAN EXISTING FORECAST BUT LESS THAN HPC QPF
SOLUTION WITH HAS UP TO 0.50 INCHES OVER OUR NC COUNTIES. KEPT
AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO UNDER 0.25 INCHES BUT IF THE NORTHWARD MODEL
TREND SOLUTION CONTINUES COULD WELL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING MORE OR LESS DUE EAST HAVE
KEPT NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA DRY ON SATURDAY. SE LOW CONTINUES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY TAKING ANY PRECIP WITH IT AND
PROVIDING BETTER WEATHER FOR EASTER SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING SLOW TO DISLODGE FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SEE EASTERLY
FLOW PERSIST. IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER AS A RESULT GENERALLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MID/LATE APRIL CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WELL OUT
TO SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE
FORCING IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WILL THROW HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR
DIRECTION LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS...MEANING AN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MVF
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. VFR FOR SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS
AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...KM/RCS
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KM