Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 260155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF QUITE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME QUITE
SPARSE. THE ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS REGARDING CLOUD
COVER AND IS INDICATING A BIT OF A SWD SURGE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL THROTTLE THE CLOUDS BACK A BIT
BUT KEEP THE OVERALL FLAVOR THE SAME. BELIEVE THE PREVIOUS
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS PUT THINGS IN THE RIGHT BALLPARK AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY LIMITED POPS...MOSTLY 15 PERCENT OR
LESS...IN FAR WRN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR A SPRINKLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

QUITE THE WIND CONTRAST BETWEEN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVELS HAVE
DECOUPLED VS WHERE THEY HAVE NOT. LATEST OBS FROM KBCB ARE 3KT
WHILE KROA IS 14G24KT. WILL ATTEMPT TO INDICATE THIS AND GIVE THE
WINDS A LITTLE BUMP UPWARD. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AND HILLTOPS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. HIGHER WINDS
MAY ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH DECOUPLED LAYERS PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT
ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH THIS FRONT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG
RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM WSW TO WNW OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SPEED AND LOW END GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFT 04Z...BUT THE
MAIN INCREASE IN THE WIND WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...WITH
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE WNW 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-25KTS
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. SCT-BKN MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND AT TIMES SPILLING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN WV TOWARD MID/LATE MORNING SUN...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL
SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND AT
ALL SITES AFT EARLY AFTERNOON SUN. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL TAF SITES.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED TODAY...OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS/SK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RAB/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS



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