Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 031724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1224 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

High pressure tracks from the midwest to overhead through tonight.
An upper low across Mexico will shift to the lower Mississippi
Valley into early next week. Several disturbances ahead of this
feature will bring periodic chances of mainly rain.


As of 1015 am EST Saturday...

Will see a little more dense cirrus/cirrostratus at times this
morning across the foothills/piedmont of NC/Southern VA per upper
pattern and ongoing orographic effects. Will see the upslope
clouds in the west start to slowly erode during the afternoon.

A piece of shortwave energy will eject from the upper low over
Mexico today and move into our area late tonight with increasing
moisture and isentropic lift. At the surface, high pressure will
shift from the midwest this morning to over our area tonight.

Will see dry weather today, with still temps running about 5 degrees
below normal, except colder in WV where clouds will linger here
longer. Highs will run from the upper 30s to lower 40s across the
far western slopes of WV, far Southwest VA, to lower to mid 40s
elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, with upper 40s to lower 50s
Roanoke and points east.

Tonight will cloud up fast ahead of shortwave. Expect to see some
light precipitation work into the NC mountains with ptype questions
remaining. Also due to position of high pressure will lower pops a
little from previous and confidence not high that much qpf will
occur given the sfc high and dry air in place. Still models support
some wintry mix at the start. Soundings suggest mainly potential for
snow, maybe sleet, and rain. Temperatures will be around freezing
and do not see much impact if any for winter accumulation. Cannot
rule out a dusting on the higher ridges like Mt. Rogers and Beech
Mtn. Expect it to remain dry north and east of a Bluefield-Pulaski-
Stuart-Stoneville line.

Lows tonight will be somewhat warmer given more clouds with mid to
upper 20s in the Alleghanys and WV Greenbrier Mountains, to lower to
mid 30s elsewhere. As precip falls into drier air some areas could
drop cooler, mainly south of Bluefield to Floyd.


As of 345 AM EST Saturday...

Progressive and moist upper pattern will bring several chances for
precipitation into early next week. On Sunday, high pressure at the
surface will be sliding off to our east which sets up good isentropic
lift along a frontal boundary a some pieces of short wave energy flow
in our direction from the Gulf coast with a more vigorous northern
stream short wave shearing off to our north. This will spread a chance
of precipitation across the region from the southeast on Sunday
especially for northwest North Carolina into the Mountain Empire of
Virginia. Some wintry precipitation may also mix in west of the Blue
Ridge but no accumulation is expected.

By Monday high pressure will build into the Ohio valley and push the
front to the east, giving us a generally dry day. However, the high
will continue to build into New England and form a strong wedge down
the east slopes of the Appalachians by Monday night as a low pressure
system moves northeast out of the lower Mississippi valley. This system
will be supported by remnant short wave energy from a closed low
ejecting out of the southwest US along with substantial isentropic
lift. This good dynamic support will bring a soaking rain to the region
late Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures will fluctuate through the period with readings below
normal on Sunday, above normal on Monday, then back below normal in the
cool moist wedge on Tuesday.


As of 336 PM EST Friday...

A strong cold front will cross the region on Thursday. Behind this
front conditions will be windy and very cold with upslope snow showers
west of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures going into next weekend will
be in the 20s across the mountains and 30s east of the Blue Ridge.


As of 1220 PM EST Saturday...

Ceilings in the mountains, including at KBLF and KLWB, were IFR to
MVFR. Scattered to broken high clouds were over the rest of
Virginia and North Carolina. Ceilings will be lowering late this
evening and overnight.

Light rain will be spreading into southwest Virginia from the
southwest on Sunday morning. There is a small probability of
precipitation at KBLF and KBCB after 15Z. Not high enough to add
to the TAFs before 18Z at this time. High confidence that MVFR
ceilings associated with the rain will not reach KROA until after

Winds will be northwest this afternoon. As high pressure moves
from the Ohio Valley this afternoon, into Virginia tonight, the
wind will become light and variable. Sunday winds will be from the
southeast with speeds less than 10 knots.

Extended aviation discussion...

Rain will spread northeast Sunday afternoon and will continue
Sunday night.

A break in the rain into Monday may allow for some VFR with sub-
VFR returning late Monday night ahead of low pressure moving into
the Tennessee Valley with widespread rains expected into Tuesday.

Expect a bit of improvement after Tuesday as front moves offshore
with another front entering from the west, with mainly VFR
expected then though some MVFR cigs into BLF/LWB possible.




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