Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 131045
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
645 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Increased rain chances across southeast Alabama this morning as
pre-frontal convection is holding together better than expected.
Expect another round of showers and isolated storms to develop
later today along the cold front. Previous discussion follows:
A shortwave trough will dive south along the back side of the
large eastern CONUS trough through today, forcing a cold front
into the Tri-State region. With most of the moisture focused below
600mb expect the probability of thunder to remain low. Average
rainfall amounts for locations impacted by showers will be around
a quarter of an inch, with very isolated amounts as high as an
inch. As far as timing is concerned, expect showers to reach our
southeast Alabama and Panhandle counties by mid-afternoon and the
Big Bend and south-central Georgia by early this evening.
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...
Fog development didn`t pan out this morning. This morning`s
updates include a tempo for TSRA at DHN this morning and removal
of visibility restrictions. VFR will prevail at all sites away
from the approaching cold front. Near the front a brief period of
MVFR ceilings should be anticipated. Clouds will clear with the
passage of the front.
.Prev Discussion [349 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Overnight, a thin band of clouds and isolated to scattered rain
showers should gradually diminish as it transitions across the
forecast area. Models suggest a small amount of instability in the
evening (and through the night over the coastal waters), so
thunderstorms were included in the forecast as well. Clearing
skies behind the front should arrive in the northwest third of the
forecast area early enough tonight to allow for cooler lows
reaching into the low 50s in some locations.
After that, high pressure will settle across the region, with
highs relatively close to seasonal normals. The lows on Wednesday
Night should be below normal, aided by calm/light winds, high
pressure, a dry air mass, and clear skies. Lows were trended down
in the direction of cooler MOS guidance, which places the official
forecast in the lower 50s in most areas away from the immediate
coast. However, some models do indicate the possibility of upper
40s, which is not out of the question in some locales.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
In general, dry high pressure will prevail through the extended
period. A reinforcing (but dry) cold front will be possible this
weekend, which should drive temperatures below normal. Highs could
be in the 70s on Sunday and Monday in the wake of the cold front.
West winds around 10-15 knots will shift to the north behind a
cold front either late tonight or Wednesday morning. Wind speeds
should not increase substantially, though, until Wednesday Night
when SCEC headlines may be required for 15-20 knot winds.
Northeast winds should then continue through the foreseeable
future, although they will subside into the 10-15 knot range.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. That being said, relative humidity values will
fall to near critical levels across parts of Alabama and the
Florida panhandle one Wednesday and Thursday, though other
necessary criteria will not be met.
Given the dry forecast overall, area river levels should remain
fairly steady or slowly fall with no flooding expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 86 61 84 51 83 / 30 20 0 0 0
Panama City 81 64 81 59 80 / 30 20 0 0 0
Dothan 83 53 81 51 80 / 50 10 0 0 0
Albany 85 54 81 51 80 / 40 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 85 61 82 52 81 / 30 20 0 0 0
Cross City 83 65 85 54 83 / 10 10 10 0 0
Apalachicola 81 66 81 56 80 / 10 30 0 0 0