Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 210300
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With the Tropical Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche sending
plenty of thick blow off cirrus well to the NE extending into our
Coastal Waters and CWA, ended up tweaking low temps up a few
degrees, especially to the south and east. These lows are very
close to our latest local CAM guidance, which is running very
near to the current observations. The only other change of
significance was to increase sky cover across the board,
especially in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct-
bkn cirrus will dominate the tafs through the period. The lone
exception may be a very brief period of MVFR Vis at VLD towards
sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.


.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD





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