Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 300103

803 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from
Huntsville, AL through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a positive tilted 500 mb trough associated with this front.
The base of the trough will barely graze our forecast area, which
usually means lackluster Q-G forcing. Thus the combination of
marginal forcing and deep layer moisture will keep the overnight
PoP in the 20-30% range, with QPF values of 0.05 in or less. With
the expected increase in clouds and onshore winds overnight, lows
will be considerably warmer than the past few nights- in the mid
40s (as opposed to near freezing).



[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions this evening will give way
to periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals, mainly between 06 UTC
and 14 UTC. There could even be some brief periods of IFR cigs,
though the likelihood of this was not high enough to include in the
00z TAF package. Scattered light showers and/or areas of drizzle
may reduce Vis to MVFR levels overnight. Winds will shift to the
NW at 10 KT late tonight and early Friday as a cold front moves
through. Clearing skies are expected Friday morning and early


.Prev Discussion [443 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.


Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
Friday in the western half of the waters. An active weather pattern
will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.

.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.


The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   47  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  30   0   0   0  10
Dothan        43  58  32  59  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
Albany        43  60  30  59  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    46  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  64  39  61  49 /  20  10   0   0  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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