Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 271030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]...

THERE WAS JUST TOO MUCH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS TO ALLOW ANY SORT
OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THOUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [417 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH


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