Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 210525
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1225 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...

Conditions becoming mostly MVFR tonight with patchy fog expected.
Vis will likely remain above 2 SM in most locations. Low CIGs
will be slow to lift in the morning. VFR is expected to return in
the early afternoon hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [747 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As expected, light scattered showers have developed across portions
of the Wiregrass and even into the Florida Big Bend at this hour.
Expect this activity to move northward, yielding very light rainfall
accumulations across these areas. The overall synoptic pattern will
remain stagnant through the period, as the region will remain
situated on the western periphery of deep layer high pressure. This
will keep muggy conditions in place through the evening and
overnight hours, with low clouds and patchy areas of fog -
particularly in areas that see any shower activity this afternoon.
Mostly cloudy conditions will keep low temperatures in the mid 60s
tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail through the short term with little
to no chance for measurable rain. Though rain is not expected,
cloudy conditions are forecast Wednesday and at least part of
Thursday. High temperatures will continue to run well above
average, with records being threatened each day this week.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail through the end of the week and
possibly into Saturday. Then, a pattern shift will occur as a
shortwave moves through the Mississippi Valley and Midwest. A cold
front will drop into the Tri-State region by the end of the
weekend, bringing our best chance for rain in quite some time.
Rain chances will continue through mid-week as the tail end of the
front stalls out across the Gulf coast. While still expected to be
above average, highs will run a few degrees closer to normal once
the ridge breaks down.


.MARINE...

Easterly winds are forecast to remain just below Cautionary
conditions through the end of the week, with little to no chance
for rain.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RHs will remain well above critical thresholds through this weekend,
precluding any hazardous fire weather risk through this period.


.HYDROLOGY...

All area rivers are below flood stage with falling or steady
water levels. Measurable rain is not expected until late this
weekend, and even then, current estimates through 7 days are for a
half inch or less.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  63  84  62  82 /  10  10   0   0  10
Panama City   77  65  77  64  77 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        83  64  84  62  81 /  20  10   0   0  10
Albany        82  64  83  62  81 /  10  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      83  64  83  62  82 /  10  10   0   0  20
Cross City    86  64  83  64  82 /  10   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  76  65  75  64  76 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Pullin


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