Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 070236
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [REST OF TONIGHT]...

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS RATHER SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAD
DIMINISHED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z. THIS HAS SET UP CLEAR
SKIES, OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, OTHERWISE THE
OUTLOOK IS FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY
AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [327 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE LAST WEEK WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER A RIBBON OF
REMNANT +PV WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE FOUND IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR FLORIDA
AND LOWER TIER GEORGIA ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AREAS BOTH DAYS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT RETROGRADES TO THE FOUR CORNER`S AREA ON
MONDAY. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS AND BELOW CLIMO POPS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO THERE
ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  94  73  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   77  90  76  89  76 /  10  30  10  30  20
DOTHAN        72  95  74  95  73 /  10  30  10  30  20
ALBANY        72  95  74  95  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
VALDOSTA      72  94  74  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  94  73  92  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
APALACHICOLA  77  93  76  90  76 /   0  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN


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