Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 252013
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
313 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
In the wake of the cold front, cool air will spill in overnight on
light northwesterly winds. Expect the light winds to keep lows in
the lower 40s across north Florida and the upper 30s elsewhere.
Frost is not expected do the fact that winds are not expected to go
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Deep layer high pressure will be in place over the southeast on
Sunday. With a cool, dry airmass in place and mostly cloudy
skies, we`ll see afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s that
will drop to the 40s overnight. On Monday, high pressure will
move east out into the Atlantic as a trough of low pressure
sweeps across the lower Mississippi valley. This approaching
trough will bring a return of southerly flow and thus warm, moist
air from the Gulf. Chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the surface trough will be 20-40% across much of the area.
Temperatures will peak in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday
afternoon, falling to around 60 overnight.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Low level flow from the south will prevail through mid-week,
allowing moisture to steadily increase over the area. At the upper
levels, an amplified longwave trough will move through the Plains
Wednesday and Mississippi valley on Wednesday night. This upper
level system will develop our next cold front, which will push
through Wednesday night through Thursday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be highest Wednesday night in southeast AL and
southwest GA at 40-50%, with chances around 20-40% across N FL
Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures ahead of the front will
peak around 80 and lower into the 60s overnight. Behind the front,
highs will return to the mid 60s to around 70 and lows will return
to the 40s.
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this afternoon, and will
continue through the TAF. The back edge of VFR ceilings associated
with a cold front will clear TLH and then VLD in the next couple
of hours. A brief shower remains possible at VLD. Gusts around 15
to 20 knots area-wide will continue until closer to sunset.
Winds will be from the north tonight at around 15 to 20 knots.
While the direction will change as we head into the next week,
winds will generally be around 15 knots or greater through Monday
morning, which will build seas up to 3 to 5 feet by Sunday night.
Winds and seas will lower Monday, but are expected to ramp up
again Wednesday evening as our next cold front approaches.
A very dry airmass will filter into the region behind a cold front with
minimum afternoon relative humidity values on Sunday dropping into the
upper teens to the lower 20 percent range. However...winds and available
fuel moisture will not meet red flag criteria. Low level moisture will
significantly increase on Monday as winds swing around to the
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown will fall below action stage
this evening. The Choctawhatchee is still rising in Florida from
Caryville through Bruce, but it is expected to remain in the action
category through this weekend. With less than an inch of rainfall
expected over the next 5 days, there are no river flood concerns.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 41 72 46 78 59 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 47 67 54 73 63 / 0 0 0 20 20
Dothan 38 66 47 73 60 / 0 0 0 40 30
Albany 38 67 44 74 59 / 0 0 0 30 30
Valdosta 40 70 47 79 60 / 0 0 0 30 10
Cross City 42 74 47 81 60 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 46 68 55 74 63 / 0 0 0 10 10