Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 132005
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
305 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As the base of the eastern CONUS trough flattens and lifts north a
bit, the local area will see an increase in high level cloudiness as
moisture transported along the southern stream feeds into the base
of the trough. At the surface, winds will generally be west-
southwesterly, resulting in a slightly more moist airmass and thus
slightly warmer overnight lows. Expect lows in the upper 30s across
south Georgia and Alabama, and in the lower 40s across north Florida
where high clouds are expected to be thicker.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

In the upper levels a longwave trough remains over the Central and
Eastern U.S. Flow over the region will be mostly zonal. At the
surface a weak cold front will move through on Friday. This boundary
will likely stall along the Gulf Coast as a very weak stationary
boundary through Saturday. POPs will be low except for on Friday.
Ahead of the cold front on Friday POPs will be 15 to 25 percent
(isolated showers) in most locations. Highs will be mainly in the
mid to upper 60s on Thursday with lows in the 40s Thursday night.
Highs on Friday will range from mid 50s in the northwest part of the
region to around 70 in the Eastern Big Bend Florida region as a cold
front moves through. Lows on Friday night will be colder mainly in
the 30s and lower 40s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels slight ridging will be in place until a trough
passes just north of the region on Monday. At the surface a Gulf Low
is expected to develop off the coast of Texas moving northeast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. This weak Gulf Low
may dissipate but a stronger low will develop near IL/MO. This
stronger low will eventually drive a cold front through the region
on Monday night. That is the ECMWF solution. The GFS has the Gulf
Low lingering a bit longer with a frontal passage on Tuesday night.
The best chance for rain is likely Sunday night to Monday. There is
uncertainty due to different model solutions but a wet pattern is
likely early next week. Highs will be a warmer in the 60s and 70s.
Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions and relatively light winds will prevail through the
TAF. High cloudiness is expected to spread eastward over ECP and TLH
later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Expect westerly winds of 15 to 20 knots tonight. Winds will become
light by tomorrow afternoon. Stronger winds will return on Saturday
night. A wet pattern will be in place by early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There will be a slight chance for rain on Friday. A wet pattern is
expected early next week. Forecast rain totals for the next 7 days
range from 0.75 inch in the easternmost counties to 3 inches in the
westernmost counties. This will be a slow steady rain of light to
moderate intensity over 2 or 3 days. Flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   42  68  47  65  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
Panama City   51  67  51  62  41 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dothan        38  65  42  56  35 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        36  64  42  58  35 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      39  66  45  65  38 /   0   0   0  20  10
Cross City    43  69  50  71  43 /  10  10  20  30  10
Apalachicola  50  68  53  67  44 /  10  10  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...McD



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