Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 280532
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
132 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

Lingering -SHRA has diminished at ABY at this hour. However,
weaker than expected winds will allow for fog development at
nearly all TAF sites overnight in addition to low CIGS. Widespread
IFR to LIFR conditions can be expected through sunrise, before
conditions begin to gradually improve. VFR conditions expected
once again by mid to late morning, with southerly winds prevailing
generally AOB 10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [936 PM EDT]...

.NEAR/SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night ]...

A low pressure system over the Great Lakes continues to lift
northward into Canada. It`s associated cold front continues to move
through our region with the majority of the rain affecting our
western Panhandle, SE AL and SW GA counties. Most convection is
expected to end around midnight. As the front lifts northeastward,
high pressure begins to build in from the south. With an increase in
cloud cover overnight, lows will be relatively warm in the low 70s.
Cloud cover then decreases allowing temps to rise into the low 90s
on Friday and Saturday. These high land temperatures and southerly
flow will likely allow for a seabreeze circulation to form. However,
with a dry airmass over the region, showers and storms are likely
to be isolated and few. Kept rain chances less than 20% each
afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

A strong shortwave over the Southern Plains Sunday morning will
lift northeastward to the Great Lakes Monday night. The associated
cold front and convection will reach our Alabama and Florida
panhandle counties Sunday night, exiting the southeast Big Bend
sometime Monday night or early Tuesday morning. While the latest
run of the global models show the convection weakening as it
pushes across our CWA, there is the possibility of a severe
weather threat with this system, especially should it slow down or
speed up to take advantage of maximum instability due to daytime
heating. A brief dry period is expected Tuesday through most of
Wednesday before another low pressure system brings rain chances
to the region on Thursday. Highs will begin the period above
average and then become closer to normal from Monday through
Thursday. Lows each night will be above seasonal levels.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will gradually elevate to advisory levels by
Saturday night and continue through Sunday night as a cold front
approaches and pushes through the local waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty winds this afternoon will decrease tonight. RH will stay above
critical thresholds so there are no fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Average rainfall amounts with today`s storms are expected to be
around a half of an inch or less, with isolated amounts between
1-2" inches in stronger storms. These totals should mainly be
confined along and northwest of a line from Albany through Destin.
Early indications are that average amounts with our next system
late in the weekend/early next week could average around 1" with
isolated amounts up to 2" possible. These values appear as though
they`ll mostly be confined along and west of a line from Albany
through Tallahassee. River levels remain quite low, with ensemble
guidance not indicating any river flooding across the region over
the next 7 days. Even though ensemble guidance is using the lower
end of the QPF envelope, the higher end estimates likely would not
result in much more than action stage along our most sensitive
rivers. Thus, at this time flooding is not a concern over the next
week or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  67  88  68  85 /  10   0  10  10  10
Panama City   81  72  81  72  80 /  10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        87  68  89  69  87 /  10   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  69  91  70  89 /  10   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      91  67  91  67  89 /  10   0  10  10  10
Cross City    90  67  91  66  89 /  10   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  81  70  82  71  81 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Barry/Chaney
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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