Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 051446
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1046 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

The inherited forecast seems largely on track for today, so only
minor tweaks were made. It should be a sunny day with breezy
northwest winds and high temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [603 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A deep upper trough will be in place across the eastern states
today. We are on the west side of this trough with dry northwest
flow and the surface cold front through the area. Skies will be
mostly sunny day today with breezy northwest winds gusting to near
30 mph at times this afternoon. High temperatures are expected
to range from the lower 70s to near 80 across the area.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Deep low pressure over much of the eastern half of the CONUS will
move off the mid-Atlantic coastline through Saturday afternoon.
Expect mostly clear skies with light winds from the north and cooler
than normal temperatures through Friday returning to near normal by
Saturday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning,
warming to the mid-upper 70s during the day. On Saturday, morning
lows will be in the low 50s and afternoon highs will be in the low
80s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Stacked high pressure will prevail over the northern Gulf coast
through the weekend. Early next week, an upper level +PV anomaly
will eject out of the central plains and into the middle Mississippi
valley, pushing a weak cold front across the southeastern states by
mid-week.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. However, northwest winds will be gusty today behind a cold
front. Gusts around 25 knots are expected starting late this
morning and lasting until around sunset.


.MARINE...

Offshore winds around 20 knots will prevail through tonight allowing
seas to build to 6 to 8 feet today. By Friday morning, winds and
seas will lower and are expected to remain below advisory and
cautionary levels through at least Monday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will prevail today with fairly low RH values and
breezy northwest winds. However, forecast ERC values are not at
potential red flag levels with the exception of Dixie, Lafayette,
Bay, Washington, and Walton counties, and in these areas, the
combination of low RH and winds appears too borderline to go with a
warning at this time.


.HYDROLOGY...

All of our area rivers remain below action stage and should remain
so through at least the weekend with no rain in the forecast until
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   78  50  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  57  76  60  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        72  49  75  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        72  48  76  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  48  76  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  50  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  56  76  59  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Lamers
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Moore


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