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000
FXUS64 KOUN 271042
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
542 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma should
gradually decrease through 14-15Z. Some light fog may
reduce visibility around HBR/LAW early this morning, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected with a breezy south wind.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A few strong to occasionally severe storms are moving southward
across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma early this morning.
Storms appear to be developing along a nose of slightly stronger
85h winds/warm air advection. Although storm motion is enhancing
inflow, storms are dissipating as they move southward into central
Oklahoma. At this time will keep low chances for storms across
northern Oklahoma early this morning.

A shortwave trough will move across the northern and central
Rockies today which will help flatten the upper ridge over
the western states.  This will also bring much warmer 7h temperatures
eastern into the southern Plains. Therefore, warmer temperatures
and rather low rain chances can be expected for much of today
through the first half of Thursday.

Late Thursday into early Friday, a cold front is expected to approach
northern Oklahoma, as another trough moves across the Rockies and
northern Plains. Better rain chances Thursday night will be north
and east of the area, but some storms may develop or move into
northern Oklahoma mainly during the overnight period. The front
may push far enough south to reach southern Oklahoma and north
Texas by late Friday afternoon. This frontal timing may favor
higher rain chances for southern Oklahoma Friday night into
Saturday. Will continue higher POPs farther north at this time as
the EC model develops storms in central Oklahoma near an elevated
frontal boundary. Regardless, it does appear the front will bring
much needed rain to at least parts of Oklahoma. Some of the rain
will likely be heavy which may cause some flooding concerns.

The trend going into next week is for more hot and dry weather.

Fire Weather...
A gusty southerly wind is expected Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. The wind will combine with rather low humidity in
western Oklahoma and north Texas to elevate fire weather
conditions during the afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  71  92  73 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         91  72  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  70  93  73 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           92  72  96  72 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     88  72  92  74 /  30  10   0  10
Durant OK         88  69  90  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$