Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 020351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN BR NEAR KOKC...
KOUN...KPNC...AND KSPS 08-15Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. THE
SFC LOW HAS NOW MOVED INTO CENTRAL LA RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS C/SE OK...WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER NW OK ALONG
A SFC TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE OVER WEST TX AND THE
SW...WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CONUS. OUR FA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. OVERALL...A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THICKNESSES INCREASE
WITH THE PREVIOUS. INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT APPEARS
THE RIDGE MAY BECOME A DOMINATING FACTOR...AND BOTH MOS AND RAW
GUIDANCE AGREE.

BY WED...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE PANHANDLE AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ITS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE...BUT THINK SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR THE EXTREME NE
ZONES STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURS AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE...SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS THE E AND NE. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO OUR REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK NOW APPEARS IT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR KS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED SO HAVE REMOVED ANY HIGH POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  88  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  89  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         66  88  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



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