Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 190957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
357 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Areas of fog have been present across southwest Oklahoma this
morning. Opted not to issue a dense fog advisory for now as most
stations have been >= 1/2 SM; however, intermittent areas of
dense fog will possible. Most high resolution guidance suggests
fog may continue to develop northeastward into central Oklahoma
the next few hours. Otherwise, low cloud cover is forecast to
decrease from southwest to northeast today with seasonably warm

On Friday, even warmer weather is forecast as both the 19/00Z GFS
and ECMWF have 850 mb temperatures ranging from 8-10C with south
to southwest low-level flow. As a result, high temperatures are
forecast to be in the 60Fs and to near 70F (~15F above average).
Opted to increase wind speeds slightly above blended guidance for
Friday afternoon as 925 mb winds are progged to be 25-30 knots. As
a result, near critical fire weather conditions are forecast across
southwest Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas.

Seasonably warm weather will continue in Saturday. Increasing
ascent with the approach of the next shortwave trough will be
sufficient for isolated showers across southwest Oklahoma/western
north Texas Saturday afternoon. Added a mention of thunder as the
GFS has progged MUCAPE of 150-200 J/kg.

By Saturday night/early Sunday, the trough is forecast to evolve
into a closed mid/upper level low as it approaches the Southern
Plains. The outlier is the NAM12, which keeps the wave open with
minimal precipitation. Opted to disregard the NAM for now as the
GFS and ECMWF have been consistent with their solutions the last
several days.

The low is forecast to track across southern Oklahoma/near the
Red River. This would place the northern half of Oklahoma in the
deformation zone within an area of rain. Additional showers would
be possible across southeast Oklahoma in a region of DPVA and
isentropic ascent. Lowest chances will be across southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas with this area potentially dry
slotted. Isolated thunder will also be possible as some elevated
instability will be present--especially across southeast Oklahoma.
Breezy northwest winds are forecast in the system`s wake, which
may result in near critical fire weather conditions.

For Monday, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate a 925-850 mb thermal
ridge with veering low-level flow with height. Therefore, raised
high temperatures above blended guidance for Monday.

On Tuesday, a closed-low is forecast to track north of Oklahoma,
keeping the primary ascent for precipitation to the north;
however, veering surface winds/dry air advection as an associated
Pacific front/dryline pass may result in near-critical fire
weather conditions--perhaps as far east as central Oklahoma.
Increased wind speeds for Tuesday afternoon beyond blended
guidance based on 925-950 mb winds.

The airmass behind this system is progged to be colder than
Sunday`s, which will result in at least slightly below average on



Oklahoma City OK  62  40  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         62  38  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           57  35  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  41  62  37 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         65  46  69  48 /  10   0   0   0




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