Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
532 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR TORONTO. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THIS LOW. AT 09Z
THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOUND SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSFERS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE
OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF ON AN INCH IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION. BY
DAYBREAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH IFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL
WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

LATER THIS MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH






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