Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281115
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
715 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY END TODAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY OFF THE MARK AT MORE THAN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A FEW RAIN
AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER
PUSH OF WARM AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS BEEN
FASCINATING OVERNIGHT WITH A WELL DEFINED MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH OFF
THE LAKE AND PASSING BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THIS FEATURE HAS
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM ROCHESTER WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS INTO A FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW. FORTUNATELY THE FEATURE REMAINED PROGRESSIVE...WHICH HAS
LIKELY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO IN MOST AREAS.
BEHIND THE MESO-LOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE AGAIN DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. DRIER AIR BUILDING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH SOME SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF THE MESO-LOW WILL LIKELY PROVE TOO DETRIMENTAL TO ALLOW
ANYTHING ORGANIZED TO FORM AGAIN.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOTTY
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN
FINGER LAKES...SUPPORTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW...MAY PRODUCE A DUSTING TO
AN INCH LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION.

CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH THE
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING PLENTY OF
STRATO-CU. THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE NEAR THE LAKES AS STRONG MIXING ATTEMPTS TO FLIP THE LAKE
PROCESS FROM CLOUD GENERATOR TO MORE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY OFF THE MARK TODAY...WITH MID 20S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER TEENS ON THE HILLS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20F
BELOW NORMAL. NORTH WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS AT TIMES MAKING IT FEEL LIKE MID-WINTER.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CLEARING SKIES...RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...AND A COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH...BRINGING INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER AFTER THE COLD DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH LATE-DAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH SOME LOW 40 DEGREE READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE
VORT MAX WILL SPREAD A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL ACT TO HELP TO BETTER ORGANIZE THE PRECIPITATION.
THIS MAY BE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED/SHOWERY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD
BECOME PRIMARILY RAIN AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS TO MODIFY A VERY
MARGINAL AIRMASS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SUPPORT A CORE OF 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB. LOW-LEVEL
LIFT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE FULL MIXING POTENTIAL OF THESE STRONG WIND ALOFT...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL RESULT IN WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE LAKES AND LAKE
SHORES / THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DUE TO WINDS FUNNELING UP LAKE ERIE /
AND INTO THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OUT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT NORTH/SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE WAVE... WHICH ENHANCES THE
FORCING AND ALSO PULLS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THAN THE GFS SUGGESTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEEING
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT. ALSO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR THE SYSTEM
CAN TAP INTO...PTYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. EVEN IF IT WERE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR INSOLATION MAY
BE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ACCUMULATIONS. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPERATURES BACK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S. THE TRADE
OFF FOR THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS. FOLLOWING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF...THE SOLUTIONS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND ON SHOWING A
STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THE TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW HAVE RANGED FROM JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO A COASTAL LOW TRACK / AND SOME OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS LOSING THE SYSTEM AT TIMES. THE EC AND SEVERAL
OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING THIS STRONGER SYSTEM...WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING
A TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TIME FRAME FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF
DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. CIGS ARE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH MVFR FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR.
CIGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE FROM AREAS OF MVFR IN THE MORNING TO MAINLY
VFR BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING. TONIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAINLY EAST OF KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
PEAK OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END GALES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ030-
         042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





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