Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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928
FXUS61 KCLE 221422
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
922 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Superior will move across the Great Lakes.
The trailing cold front will sag over the forecast area Thursday
then lift back north as a warm front Thursday night. A strong low
will cut across the central Great Lakes Friday night forcing a
strong cold front across the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers have blossomed over the eastern half of the region this
morning with some low level moisture advection and the influence
of a 3H jet that is moving across NE OH into western NY state.
Have nudged POPS up across the eastern half of the region mainly
for the morning hours. Otherwise temperatures are in the
ballpark so have only made some minor changes to the hourly
temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
Think clouds will be a little slower to erode so "lowered" high
temps to the lower to mid 60s...which is roughly 25+ degrees
above normal. Tol and Yng will approach the record highs for
today of 66 and 64 respectively. Record highs for rest of
forecast area from upper 60s to lower 70s so those records still
appear safe. Dense fog remains across Michigan and NW IN.
However believe cloud shield will remain over NW OH this morning
so do not expect dense fog to develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term forecast. Models track low
pressure currently over Lake Superior...East across the Great
Lakes. A very weak cool front will make its way into northern
portions of the CWA Thursday morning. It will stall out
somewhere across northern Ohio before lifting back north as a
warm front Thursday night. Expect a few showers to develop with
the best chances near Lake Erie.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures soaring
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. But change is on the way.
Models continue to track strong low pressure system across the
Central Lakes Friday night...dragging a strong cold front across
the forecast area. Model timing a little slower today...but
still potential for a few strong to severe storms NW OH Friday
evening. The low cape high shear environment would support
damaging winds.

Much colder air behind the front will plunge temps to near normal
for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Volatile weather pattern will continue during the extended portion
of the forecast with near normal temperatures on Sunday returning to
well above normal values by Tuesday. Long range models vary with
respect to how fast the ridge can build overhead on Sunday which
will have an impact on coverage of snow showers downwind of Lake
Erie. The airmass will trend drier during the day before moisture
arrives with the passage of the next shortwave on Sunday night. This
should cause an increase in snow showers but still too much spread
in the details to have much confidence in potential for
accumulating snow.

After that a warming trend will resume as southwesterly flow
develops ahead of a trough taking shape over the western United
States. Moisture will advect north towards the area with increasing
chances of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
MVFR clouds are expanding across northwest and north central Ohio
while mid-level clouds and a few showers remain in northeast
Ohio. Mid-clouds are clearing from the west and visibilities may
drop to a mile or two at FDY if this occurs before lower clouds
thicken. Otherwise expect MVFR clouds around 2500 feet to expand
to all terminals by late morning. Clouds will linger through the
day but may briefly improve to VFR before lowering again
overnight. IFR ceilings will develop at many sites after 08Z as
low pressure approaches from the west.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues Thursday/Thursday night then returns
again on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds near 10 knots will continue today. Low pressure will
approach the Great Lakes from the west this evening with southwest
winds increasing to 10-20 knots overnight. As this system continues
to the east into Thursday a weak cold front will settle south across
the lake with waves building to 2 to 4 feet.

A stronger low pressure system will track out of the Plains on
Friday. Easterly winds will increase to 10-20 knots on Friday
morning then shift around to the south as a warm front lifts north
across the lake. Winds will increase out of the southwest with the
passage of a cold front Friday night into Saturday and Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed on the lake, continuing into Sunday
on the eastern half.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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