Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 041527
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1027 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will move east late today. Tonight a
disturbance aloft will move across the Great Lakes as a surface
trough moves through. High pressure will build back in for Monday.
Another storm system will bring rain for Tuesday. Colder
temperatures are on the horizon for Thursday through the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quiet weather expected through at least early afternoon as
ridging continues to build across the region. Shortwave lifting
from the Plains into the Great Lakes this afternoon/evening.
Models continue to trend slower with the arrival of precip today,
which not only complicates timing of pops but precip type as well.
Pretty strong WAA/return flow in the SFC- 850mb layer expected
ahead of the wave throughout the day, and expecting any precip at
the onset to be primarily rain, with perhaps a mix or all snow in
far NW OH.

With this mid morning update have raised precip chances...but
left the timing of the onset of precip intact.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave will be quick to move across the region tonight with
light precipitation around for 6 or 7 hours. Precip type concerns
revolve around precip onset evaporative cooling...and then later
the exit of the moisture in layers above -12C. Have made tweaks
with this mid morning update to raise precip chances...with timing
largely left as is. Tapered back on the snow across northwest
OH...but left around a half inch of accumulation mentioned if snow
does indeed become more predominant. Precip will be done there by
about midnight. Left the rain/snow mix for NE OH/NW PA for the
second half of the night as we do begin to cool aloft...but by
morning the deeper moisture will have exited so it will be hard to
support snow. Precip may linger across NW PA beyond 7 am MON with
a little lake enhancement...but high pressure quickly builds in.
Weak WAA and surface ridging should provide a fairly nice day,
with temps near normal.

Next chance of precip moves into the area Tuesday as southern stream
shortwave/attendant surface low tracks northeast through the Ohio
valley. GFS/ECMWF have trended a bit slower with onset of precip,
with the NAM noticeably faster, and have trended a bit slower with
pops. Held off with only slight chance before 12Z with likely/cat
pops expanding NE through the day Tuesday. Should be all rain for
the region aside from higher elevations in NW PA, where a mix cannot
be ruled out. The low pushes northeast of the area Tuesday night
with pops quickly diminishing. Much talked about arctic front begins
to slide southeast through the region Wednesday/Wednesday night. For
now, kept chance pops in the forecast Wednesday night as upper
jet/divergence tracks across the region despite little surface
forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The biggest cold air intrusion of the season so far is in store for
the long term. A deep trough will be across the eastern half of the
U.S. and its effects will be felt into the early part of the
weekend. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the teens both
Thursday and Friday nights, with high temperatures remaining below
freezing Friday and Saturday.

With this cold air coming across a relatively warm lake, there is
potential for significant accumulations from lake-effect snow,
especially on Thursday and Friday. More on this as we get closer to
the event. Another storm system looks as if it will be approaching
the area from the west on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Expect mostly VFR conditions across the area through about 21Z.
After this, precip will begin to move in from west to east, likely
initially in the form of a rain/snow mix, but will shortly
thereafter transition to snow in most locations. May stay a
rain/snow mix along the lake shore. Expect widespread MVFR
conditions and possibly some IFR conditions into tonight.

OUTLOOK...Frequent non-VFR conditions Monday and Tuesday
afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A number of systems will affect Lake Erie this upcoming week as
an active pattern continues. A high building over the area will
shift off to the east later tonight with winds turning out of the
southeast. Winds will turn back around to the west Sunday night
into Monday as a trough passes through. This will create a choppy
late, especially on the eastern half. An area of low pressure will
approach from the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and will pass just
south of the lake. This will turn winds out of the southeast and
then east on Tuesday. Westerly winds Wednesday and Thursday will
gradually increase as a deep area of low pressure moves into the
region. Windy conditions can be expected and lake-effect snow will
likely begin by Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt/Oudeman
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Mottice


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