Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 282144
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
544 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will push south of the area tonight. High
pressure will build over the central Great Lakes on Monday and
slowly sink south on Tuesday. Another cold front will move south
across the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection becoming quite active across the central portions of
the the forecast area. More activity is trying to push into the
western portions at this time as well. Major update to increase
POPs across portions of the areas where thunderstorms are expected
to move especially from southern Cuyahoga county into Holmes east
across the inland areas of the forecast area. Will be monitoring
for flash flood potential inland northeast Ohio where precipitable
water values are quite high. Storms are beginning to slow in
forward motion with some back building taking place. Duration
should be short lived so will not issue a flood watch at this
time. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour are possible in the
thunderstorms due to the high moisture content of the atmosphere.

Previous discussion...
Area of showers and thunderstorms that developed out ahead of the
cold front continues to move east along the south shore of Lake
Erie. Coverage has decreased across northwest Ohio as the gust
front has pushed south towards the Findlay area. We are also
finally starting to see some storms developing across northeast
Ohio where bands of cu have developed. The better upper level
support will continue to shift to the east but 2000 J/kg of ML
Cape remain across much of the area where thunderstorms have not
occurred yet. Expect scattered storms to continue to fire this
evening along outflow boundaries and the weak front sinking south.
Shear should not be insufficient for too many storms to approach
severe limits to the south but cluster along the lakeshore remains
energetic and a few severe storms are possible. Activity should
greatly diminish by 9 pm. Temperatures will bottom out into the
upper 60s most areas with locations downwind of Lake Erie holding
closer to 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build over the central Great Lakes on Monday.
North to northeast winds will bring lower dewpoints from Canada to
the forecast area and a break from the humidity. Subsidence will
ensure dry conditions through at least Tuesday with highs in the
lower 80s.

The next in a series of upper level troughs will slide southeast
from Quebec into Ontario on Wednesday. The associated surface low
pressure system will move across James Bay into Ontario with a back
door cold front settling south across the area on Wednesday. Will
carry a low chance of thunderstorms in the forecast as the front
comes through. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 80s on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather during the long term.  The
models are in decent agreement with high pressure over the area.
Will end up going with four dry days.  The only day this may be
problematic is Thursday.  Cold air advection will be ongoing across
the area but think it will be too dry for precip. The models tend to
underestimate the dry air advection with the northeast flow
expected. Temperatures will average below normal Thursday and Friday
but readings will climb back to the lower 80s for the holiday
weekend as the surface ridge slides off to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
A line of storms has developed along the OH/MI border. This will
be the main concern the next several hours. The majority of the
new guidance shows this line moving southeast across the western
half of the area and will go with tempos at the western TAF sites.
Areas further east will get vicinity mentions and will update as
needed. Given the juicy airmass expect VSBYs to dip to IFR with
any of the thunderstorms. The cold front responsible for this
activity should push south of the area around 00z and that should
end the precip threat. Overnight just expecting a few clouds with
patchy MVFR fog. Monday will see dry NE flow at low levels thus
only a few cu. Light flow will become NW to N behind the cold
front but speeds will remain under 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR thru Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will push south of the lake tonight. Northeast
flow will develop by morning but sustained speeds should comfortably
remain under 15 knots.  Northeast flow will continue late Monday
then winds will become light and variable for a time as high
pressure settles over the region.  Another cold front will arrive
sometime Wednesday with northerly flow returning during the
afternoon.  There will be good push of cold air behind this second
front. Suspect the models may be under doing the winds and we may
briefly get close to small craft criteria.  Northerly flow will
continue into Friday and then become northeast to east as another
high builds in from the north.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina



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