Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 261345
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
945 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
High pressure to our east will build back west toward the area today
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Continued the trend to lower pops for today. convection to the
west over illinois is moving east but growth is toward the
southeast and will likely remain south of the area. we can not
rule out other widely scattered convective development in the
afternoon but for now will lower pops to the chance to slight
chance categories. rather warm airmass is in place with 850 mb
temperatures near 15C which should support max temperatures in the
lower to mid 80s. will raise max temperatures a few degrees.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No real change in short term expectations with building heights
and increasing moisture through Saturday. Moisture remains for
Sunday as heights begins to drop off just a bit as a short wave
moves into the central plains. Not a lot of forcing tonight
through Saturday. Current model runs suggest a bit more dynamics
coming into play Saturday night and Sunday as an upper trough
approaches from the west and the upper high shifts east over New
england. For now will go with diurnal trends having chance pops
for the afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Will continue
with chance pops saturday night and Sunday but pops may need to be
raised if short wave continues to focus energy across the area.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast continues to show a strong upper level ridge
over the eastern third of the United States. This will promote high
pressure over the East Coast, which will in turn give our area warm,
moist southerly flow in the low levels. Temperatures for the
forecast period will be about 5 to 10 degrees above average hovering
around the 80 degree mark, certainly giving the feeling of summer as
we enter the month of June. However, this warm, moist airmass will
allow for a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon with diurnally driven convection and perhaps a weak
shortwave or two going over the upper level ridge. Do note, however,
that no day will be a complete washout as convection would be
isolated/scattered in nature and the possibility of a dry day early
next week is certainly possible. Cloud cover will generally vary
throughout the forecast period as it will be dependent on how much
moisture gets into the region and if any convection develops.
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A mid level shortwave trough is sparking some isolated showers
around the Lake Erie region this morning. Along and behind this
trough, some pesky MVFR clouds are moving in, mostly few/scattered
in nature, but occasionally showing up in some observations as a
broken layer. This trough and associated showers and clouds will
move east through the mid to late morning hours. The MVFR clouds
should lift and dissipate with daytime heating and the showers are
extremely isolated in nature that a vicinity shower isn`t
necessary. Winds will be southerly throughout the day today.
After the early afternoon, the forecast gets fairly uncertain,
as models aren`t very bullish on rain/storm chances today. The
remnants of an old storm complex moving across central Illinois
this morning will progress east and will likely dissipate
throughout the day, but there may be some remaining clouds or
light showers that could make it into the area by late day. In
addition, another piece of energy in the mid levels may generate
some scattered rain showers late in the day. Thus, went with a
vicinity shower in the TAFs for the late afternoon into the early
evening following the timing of this mid level wave, but
confidence in timing, coverage, and thunder chances is low and
will need to be monitored at future TAF issuances. For the
overnight, some MVFR fog is possible before daybreak as the
airmass over the region will be fairly saturated. Any sites that
see rainfall on Thursday will be even more likely to see fog
before dawn on Friday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.
Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure begins moving in from the
southeast. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly
through Memorial Day with the exception of a brief period of 10 to
15 knot winds early Friday, which will then likely be followed by a
lake breeze Friday afternoon. Waves will be 2 feet or less and no
small craft advisories are expected through the holiday weekend.