Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11 AM COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY THE ISLANDS BACK TO DEFIANCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SEVERE
CHANCES ARE PUSHED MORE SOUTHEAST...MARION TO AKRON TO CORRY PA
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST...LOWERING
POPS IN NW OH AND ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. SOME NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TOO WITH AMPLE MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME JUST KEPT THEM
CHANCE POPS AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NOT REAL
HIGH...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 60% POPS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FOR TUESDAY...GUIDANCE POPS ARE SOMEWHAT LOW BUT CONTINUED A
CHANCE OVER NE OH AND NW PA BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE GETTING CLOSE TO 14C.
ALSO INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY. A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. USED A BLEND WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER...SOME DRYING SHOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. A LOW CHANCE POP REMAINS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO CLIMB AND THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IN NE OH/NW PA WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE NW/CENTRAL OHIO WILL
START TO RECOVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES.

BY SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED CU FIELD AND MAYBE EVEN A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN MOISTURE RETURN TO ADD
POPS TO THE FORECAST BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER OVER
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT FROM KDKK TO KGKJ TO KFDY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR/FOG TOWARD SUNRISE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED ON THE LAKE WITH SOME LARGER WAVES APPEARING
AT THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE BUOY. AREA WEB CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING
WAVES BUILDING QUICKLY SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL LIKELY BE FROM NOW THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE
NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY LATER TODAY AND NW THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A SW OFFSHORE
COMPONENT THAT WAVES PEAK IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS
AND WAVE REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PENNSYLVANIA WATERS...AND MAY
STILL NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS GET CLOSE ENOUGH.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND WAVES WILL BUILD DOWN
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WAVE GROWTH AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY WITH
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC/MULLEN





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