Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 241355
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
955 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
A weakening cold front will move southeast across the area
tonight into monday. High pressure will cross the eastern Great
Lakes Tuesday into Thursday. Low pressure is expected to move out
of the plains across Ohio Friday into Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Lots of variables today with the weather, especially in the
potential for thunderstorm development. The old convective complex
(from early last night) has left a MCV in mid levels drifting
across the western part of the forecast area. This will likely
spawn new thunderstorms today as it drifts east southeast. These
storms could make it as far east as Youngstown later in the day.
The latest thunderstorm complex will send weakening thunderstorms
toward Toledo which may or may not try to redevelop in the heat of
the day as the outflow translates east and south. The forecast
will be somewhat general and call for a chance of thunderstorms or
scattered thunderstorms. There will be enough heat and sheer for
locally strong to severe storms.
The extra clouds and showers may suppress temperatures enough to
fall short of the heat advisory criteria but will not make any
changes until we get a better feel for how the day will evolve.
No other changes for the late morning update.
Original "today" discussion...
The question is how far east will the leftover vort be before
daytime heating causes new convection to develop. Also, how much
new convection will develop with the vort as it heads east into
air that is not as warm and unstable.
This may lead to a lot of the cwa seeing little rain but a lot of
leftover debris clouds which would limit daytime heating thus
affecting how much new development occurs with daytime heating and
whether we still need the heat advisory. Generally agree with
ongoing pops that mainly run 50% or less and qpf mostly a quarter of
an inch or less. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm.
As mentioned previously...highs today will be tricky due to
uncertainty with how long debris clouds with hang on from initial
convective system. Have decided to still let highs get into the
lower 90s for all but the far ne. With dewpoints into the lower 70s
still have heat index values getting around 100 for the current
advisory area as well as the sw part of stark co. Based on
collaboration will add stark co into the heat advisory and
reluctantly leave rest of heat advisory still going.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Slow moving, dissipating cold front probably won`t move se of the
cwa until mon eve which will keep a good threat of shra/tsra going
for much of the cwa tonight then for mainly the se half by mon
afternoon and finally tapering off in the far se during mon evening.
Temps mon should be a little cooler do to widespread cloudiness then
lows mon night should finally back down into the 60s for all but the
High pressure builds over the region to produce dry conditions for
tue and tue night with temps a little above normal.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will weaken by Thursday as the next upper level trough
approaches. It appears that there will be a frontal boundary stalled
near the area with chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
through the weekend. Each piece of jet energy moving through the
trough will be able to enhance convective development but do not
trust the timing of this at this point. Chances of a significant
rainfall for portions of the area are definitely on the increase.
Seasonal temperatures are anticipated through the long term period.
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Concerns about thunderstorms have increased this morning as
convection seems to be organizing over Lake Michigan into western
Michigan. Confidence has grown enough to have a tempo period of
thunder across the west. This area of thunderstorms may then move
eastward across the remainder of northern Ohio through the
afternoon. Confidence is not as high with this at the moment so
have only placed a vicinity thunder for the time period they may
be moving across each TAF site. Expect to see some 5000-6000 foot
ceilings develop ahead of any thunder. Where the thunderstorms can
occur brief mvfr/ifr conditions will be possible. As a weak cold
front approaches tonight into Monday morning there could be some
thunderstorms. Have placed a vicinity thunder at KTOL around 09Z
then spread it slowly eastward through sunrise.
Winds will be mostly from the southwest at 10 to 12 knots this
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Monday in thunderstorms...especially
east. Non-VFR in fog/mist possible each morning.
High pressure will begin to lose its influence on Lake Erie today as
it moves eastward. Lake breeze should be able to develop from
Cleveland to Erie today but the southwesterly flow should increase
across the western basin. Still does not look like it will be much
above 10 knots away from any thunder that can develop. Southwest
winds will become westerly in the wake of a cold front that will
cross the lake early Monday. High pressure will then settle back
over the central Great Lakes with light winds expected into
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>011-