Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 310223
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. BUT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
WITH STEADY OR RISING READINGS LATER. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA...WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DECREASE IN
THE LATE DAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERAL
CLEARING WILL PERMIT LOWS TUES NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60
AND THEN WARM ADVECTION WILL HAMPER NIGHTTIME DROP OFFS AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS HERE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST OF CINCY AND LOWER 40S NORTH AND EAST OF
COLUMBUS METRO.

NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE BEYOND FCST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WITH
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAY THERE WAS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A
CDFNT WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS
LAGGING WELL BEHIND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. WELL...BEGINNING
WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUING INTO THE 12Z THE GFS/CMC
HAVE SNAPPED BACK TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. SO NOW HAVE
THURSDAY STARTING OFF DRY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MORNING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON UPPED POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS A 50 KT H8 JET WILL HELP FOCUS THE
LIFT. BUMPED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

FRONT DROPS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
THE SLOWEST/FARTHER N WITH THE FRONT BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
H5 TROF WILL CAUSE A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
FRIDAY...PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S IN THE NW...RANGING UP TO LOWER 60S IN THE
SE.

PCPN WILL END FROM W TO E FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE PLAINS. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. A SFC TROF/WEAK CDFNT DROPS THROUGH THE
ERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. KEPT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NORTHEAST OF THE FA FOR NOW. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL PUSH A
WRM FRNT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS COULD SET OFF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST.
THESE WILL MOVE OFF WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY EARLY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 09Z.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...






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