Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 110852
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A MIXTURE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF AS IT PROVIDES A
COMPRISE BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF TIMING
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
OUR REGION WILL LIKELY SEE AN INFLUX OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...MOST LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PIVOTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION BRUSHES OUR NW FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS AND THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW
CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS REGION...LEAVING OTHER
LOCATIONS DRY. THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY
GIVEN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THIS...
WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM UP SOME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH
TO NEAR 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SCALE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BEING TO DIG/ROTATE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT DOES...IT WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE
THE ECMWF WAS USED AS A COMPROMISE AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT AND THE CMC IS A LITTLE FASTER. WILL KEEP A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES) AND THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THESE THREATS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO
PRODUCT AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED. DEPENDING ON MORNING
CLOUD COVER...LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY GET
SNEAKY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FORECAST. HIGHS WILL DROP
OFF TO THE LOWER 80S TOWARD OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE PREVALENT ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION
FIRST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THIS SECONDARY FRONT MAY PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER LIKELY POP
EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW IN TERMS
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. WILL EMPLOY HIGH CHANCES
POPS WITH THIS BOUNDARY FOR NOW. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
60 NW TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHILE LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
THREAT FOR PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS
CAA OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S NW TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST BACK INTO EASTERN CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COOL AS WELL...LOWER
TO MID 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BY THURSDAY AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO UNDERGO MODIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING VARIABLE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME CIRRUS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY.

LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLUK THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS





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