Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 290113
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
913 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A drier
airmass will settle into the region heading into Monday before
some lower chances of precipitation return through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mid level s/w to pivot through the the srn Great Lakes tonight
as low develops over the western Great Lakes. ILN/s FA was in
the warm sector today with 00Z sounding showing marginal
instby with CAPE only around 600 j/kg. The sounding also shows
convective inhibition which kept ILN/s FA dry through the
afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms developed along and ahead of weak sfc
cold front approaching from the west.

These storms are weakening as they push into western Ohio into
a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Expect these storms
to track east across the FA through about midnight with the
passage of the front. With lack of favorable instability the
severe threat is very marginal and continues to diminish as the
storms push east.

Drier air will then work in overnight, leading to decreasing
clouds from northwest to southeast in the wake of the front.
Expect lows from the upper 50s west to the lower 60s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The drier airmass will continue to settle into the region
through the morning hours on Monday. Some energy rotating around
an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will
push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday
night. This will help push an associated weakening surface
trough down into northern portions of our area. Forcing and
instability appears to be fairly weak so will just hang on to
some slight chance pops across the area for mainly Monday
night. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday in the vicinity
of a weak cold front, affecting mainly eastern counties. A similar
scenario is indicated for Wednesday near the stalled boundary, with
thunderstorm chances enhanced by increased short wave energy
rounding the base of a broad upper trough. High pressure and dry
weather to start Thursday will decay rather quickly as another
frontal boundary forms across the Great Lakes, allowing for a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to return by Thursday night.
Thunderstorms will affect mainly northern locations to start, with
convection chances spreading south and persisting Friday through
Sunday as the front meanders over the region.

Temperatures are likely to be near normal through the period, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level s/w to pivot through the the region tonight as low
develops over the western Great Lakes. ILN/s FA is in the warm
sector with weak associated cold front approaching from the
west. Cloud cover has held instability in check with blyr CAPE
values up to 1000 j/kg. Forecast starting out with VFR cigs
between 4000 and 5000 feet. Also, CIN has prevented the
development of widespread thunderstorms due to lack of forcing
in the warm sector. Broken line of storms has developed to our
west invof the front, where there is a lack of CIN. Expect these
storms to track east across the FA through the late evening
with the passage of the front. A few of the storms could contain
strong gusty winds with DCAPEs up to 1000 j/kg. Have a tempo
group for a couple of hours to account for these storms.

Pcpn will taper off through late evening as we lose the instability
and a cold front moves through. A drier airmass will move into
the area behind the front with VFR conditions expected through
the remainder of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR


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