Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 280200
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the
weekend...keeping heat index values near 100 in some areas.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
through the early part of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
We will likely continue to see some mid to high level cloudiness
from time to time overnight. With some partial clearing and light
winds, some patchy fog development will be possible later
tonight. Temperatures are already down into the low to mid 70s
across much of the area but they will probably not fall too much
more given dewpoints are mainly running in the lower 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mid/upper level ridge again dominates the weather for
Sunday in especially the southeast...with the expectation that
daytime heat index values could approach 100 again in the
southeast forecast area with afternoon thunderstorm development
again...with enough instability and the potential for higher DCAPE
values bringing gusty winds with slow storm motion and moist
environment also bringing potential for heavy rain.
Will have to monitor closely...as if enough activity
develops...may diminish high heat index potential.
A weak shortwave will skirt to the south of the area on the back
side of the ridge on Monday...which will again serve as a focus
of thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Temperatures will
moderate some with the ridge beginning to retreat.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig
southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States.
This will push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. There
is not much moisture with this front and forcing looks weak...
although cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms in northern
counties. Warm and humid conditions will persist ahead of the front.
But a cooler and drier airmass will spread in for the rest of the
week...with temperatures at or slightly below normal.
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pcpn has ended this evening across the area with mainly just some
mid and high level cloudiness lingering. With light winds and some
clearing overnight, expect to see some patchy MVFR to locally IFR fog
development later tonight into early Sunday morning. The best
chance for this will be at the climatologically favored KLUK and
Through the day on Sunday, we will remain on the periphery of the
mid and upper level ridge that extends into the Tennessee Valley.
As we destabilize through the day, expect some isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development to be possible once again.
Since it should be somewhat unorganized though and difficult to
place...have left the thunder mention out of the TAFs this far
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.