Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 241730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1230 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A southerly flow will develop on the back side of retreating high
pressure allowing for dry conditions and warmer temperatures today.
A weak cold front will move through the Ohio Valley Saturday
morning offering only a slight chance of a shower. High
pressure will build in behind the front, persisting into the
middle of the work week, offering continued dry weather.


Not many changes to ongoing forecast this morning, with surface
high pressure pulling east. Return flow has already established
itself this morning with the low level gradient slowly
increasing. Looking at the latest 850 MB temperatures from the
KILN sounding shows WAA occurring with temps at 5 degrees C.
Low level thicknesses also support high temperatures in the mid
50s (esp southwest of the Ohio river). Have gone ahead and
raised high temperatures this afternoon by a degree or two. New
zones already out.

Prev Discussion->
Northwest mid level flow backs westerly with surface high
pressure building off the east coast. Southerly low level flow
increases between this retreating surface high and an
approaching cold front to our west. Southerly surface winds will
increase to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 20
mph. Expect a good deal of sunshine today with an increase in
high level clouds late. Temperatures will warm to readings a
little above normal today. Expect highs from the lower 50s north
to the middle 50s south.


Mid level s/w to track through the Great Lakes with a surface
cold front passing through ILN/s FA late tonight/early Saturday.
Expect to see an increase in clouds late tonight with the
approach of this system. Moisture is limited forcing is weak.
Therefore, will limit any mention of showers to slight chance
across the central and north, late tonight into early Saturday.
Temperatures will be milder tonight with lows from the upper
30s north to the lower 40s south.

Mid level trof will settle into the Great Lakes with a good deal
of clouds mainly across the north Saturday. Surface high
pressure nosing into the southwest will keep skies partly clouds
there. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs from the
upper 40s north to the lower 50s south.


At the beginning of the period, the area will be under a northwest
flow aloft on the west flank of a large upper trough. Surface high
pressure developing under the confluent upper flow will cover most
of the CONUS, providing dry weather conditions. As the upper flow
transitions to zonal by the middle of next week in response to a
closed low forming to the west, dry weather is likely to persist
through Wednesday under the massive and slow moving surface high now
centered to the east.

For Thursday, the upper low is forecast to shift to the Great Lakes,
while a surface low develops. Increasing moisture and forcing on a
southwest flow aloft will produce a chance of showers.

Temperatures will start near normal, with highs in the 40s on
Sunday. Under weak seasonal insolation and warm advection, expect
above normal readings for the rest of the period, with highs mainly
in the 50s.


Surface high pressure has pulled east this afternoon with
southerly flow increasing on the western side. Besides some
cirrus moving in from the west TAF sites will remain VFR through
this evening.

A weak cold front will move through the area Saturday morning
with most of the models keeping the TAF sites dry. Both GFS and
NAM forecast soundings do not saturate the low levels which
implies very low confidence in precipitation coverage. Just
ahead of the front low level winds will be on the increase
thanks to the tightening gradient. Low level 0-2 kft bulk shear
on the NAM maxes out around 45 kts and due to this have kept
the mention of llws in the TAFs.

Behind the front a potent mid-level disturbance will dive
southeast with low level moisture quickly pushing in. GFS and
NAM forecast soundings show MVFR cigs moving in between 14 and
17z across the TAF sites with KCVG/ KLUK being on the fringe of
the MVFR deck. Latest suite of the high res models has KCVG/
KLUK mostly lying just southwest of the MVFR deck, but have
included the mention due to low level flow.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
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