Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 221049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL EARLY THIS
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE/BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE
FIGURING OUT THE COVERAGE OF CAA STRATOCUMULUS AND HOW FAST THEY
WILL EXIT THE AREA. HAVE USED THE RAP MODEL AS A GUIDE TO FIGURE
THIS OUT WHICH KEEPS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE...DRYING
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INCREASE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ARRIVAL OF AUTUMN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MAKE
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
THE ADJUSTED MAV GUIDANCE AND CONSENSUS RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURES
TO TRY TO CAPTURE THE NORMALLY COOL SPOTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S IN THOSE COOL SPOTS TO THE MID 40S AT RIDGE TOPS AND
NEAR URBAN AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. SUNNY SKIES AND A
MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS.
DIURNAL SWINGS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH RIDGING
OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY/WARM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD RUN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. OVERALL CLOUD BASES GENREALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 2000-3000
FEET...WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1500 FEET. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.

NNW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 KNOT RANGE
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS






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