Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 052018
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
318 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016
Tonight...Moisture continues to increase tonight ahead of low
pressure that will lift northeast from the western gulf coast
region. Latest meso model runs trending toward the higher rain
chances in local area holding off until late night and have trended
PoP timing this way...and the only low thunder mention in overnight
will be far northern sections late tonight. The warm southwest flow
will keep low temperatures well above early Dec normals in the lower
70s...even a few areas in the mid 70s.
Tue...Local area will be in the warm sector early Tues as low
pressure lifts toward northeast from TN/AL region around daybreak.
Southwest winds will become breezy with 15-20 mph and occasional
higher gusts. Moisture will be deep over the region with
precipitable water approaching two inches by early Tues. Some upper
level jet ascent and approaching shortwave to the north will allow
scattered to numerous showers to form along with the potential for a
few embedded thunderstorms. Instability continues to be the limiting
factor. High temperatures expected to climb into the low to mid
80s...unless early clouds/precip put more of a damper on high temps.
Tue night...Deeper prefrontal moisture will support isolated showers
across srn sections into Tuesday evening with much drier air moving
toward nrn portions of central FL overnight as a frontal boundary
moves through the area by Wed morning. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s far nrn areas from The Villages to Lake George with 60s
across srn sections.
Wed-Thu...The front will stall across south FL Wed into Thu with
deeper moisture lingering just south of the forecast area with a dry
airmass across central sections. Low level northwest flow Wed will
be reinforced by late Thu afternoon with stronger pressure gradient
from high pressure building southeast from the Plains. Will continue
a low shower chance across far srn areas Wed with a low chance of
showers continuing across southern sections on Thu.
Thu night...12z ECM guidance still indicates a frontal wave may
bring a a band of showers across the area during the period with the
GFS continuing flatter aloft and drier. Will keep a chance of
showers for now. Lows mainly in the 50s.
Previous extended discussion...Fri-Sun...Models in better agreement
Friday and into the weekend, with drier/colder air building in
behind the front late into the week/early Saturday. Highs in the 60s
Friday and lows in the 40s Friday night over much of the region will
be possible. Low level winds then become onshore into the weekend as
high pressure over the southeast U.S. shifts toward the Mid-Atlantic
coast and offshore. This will gradually warm temperatures back to
more normal values by Sunday, and also keep a slight chance for
onshore moving showers along the coast.
.AVIATION...VFR outside of isold shra through 06/06Z, then expect
development of MVFR/IFR low stratus cigs through daybreak Tue. Shra
becmg sct/nmrs daytime Tue along with potential for isold tsra.
SW winds increase to around 15kt with ocnl gusts above 20kt daytime
Tonight-Tue...Winds will pick up through the overnight as
lowpressure near the western gulf coast deepens and lifts toward
theNE. Will need to add in a caution headline for late tonight for
atleast the offshore legs, which will likely be expanded to
includeall legs Tue...and may need to upgrade at least the
northernoffshore segments to Small Craft Advisory by early Tue.
Showers anda few offshore moving storms possible, especially by late
tonight and Tuesday.
Wed-Sat...Boundary stalls across south Florida into mid week with
winds and seas decreasing. However winds will increase again out of
the north late in the week with the passage of a second stronger
cold front, producing poor to hazardous boating conditions that will
linger into early weekend as winds veer onshore.
Daytona Beach has reached 85 degrees so far this afternoon setting a
new record for the date. The previous record was 83 in 2013.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 81 58 74 / 40 70 10 0
MCO 71 82 61 78 / 30 60 10 0
MLB 73 83 63 78 / 30 70 10 10
VRB 74 82 64 79 / 20 60 20 10
LEE 71 81 59 77 / 40 70 10 0
SFB 72 83 59 78 / 30 70 10 0
ORL 72 83 61 79 / 30 70 10 0
FPR 73 82 66 80 / 20 60 20 10