Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 201413
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1013 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS OCCURRING FROM KISSIMMEE
AND ORLANDO AREA NORTHEAST TOWARD SCOTTSMOOR IN VICINITY OF VORT
MAX IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENT MSAS ANALYSIS AND
OBSERVATIONS GIVE INDICATION THAT WEAK LOW IS TAKING SHAPE WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT N/NE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE AND SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THIS EXITING LOW TODAY WITH A CONTINUED DISTURBED FLOW ALOFT.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO REDEVELOPING AREAS OF
RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO
AREA SOUTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN POPS AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE
REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TODAY BUT A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
EXPECTED IN LIGHT RAIN AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
LEADING TO VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE N/NW NORTH OF BUOY 41009 AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SPEEDS (UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS) OUT OF THE W/SW FARTHER
SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST






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