Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 120735
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINATE LCL WX FEATURE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROF OVER THE NE GOMEX/FL
PANHANDLE. TEMP PROFILE IS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST
24HRS WITH H70 TEMPS BTWN 7/8C...H50 TEMPS BTWN -7/-8C. RESULTING
LAPSE RATES THRU THE LYR BTWN 5.5-6.0C/KM. ALOFT...THE LCL AIRMASS
IS LARGELY NEUTRAL WITH H30-H20 PENINSULA WIND AOB 25KTS. UPSTREAM
H85-H50 VORT FIELDS ARE PRETTY FLAT AS WELL...THE ONE NOTEWORTHY
KNUCKLE OF INSTABILITY OVER NE FL IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC
RIDGE AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR CENTRAL FL WX. EVENING SOUNDINGS
SHOW NO SIG CAPPING IN THE H85-H70 LYR...SUGGESTING AN QUICK START
TO DIURNAL CONVECTION ONCE SFC TEMPS REACH THEIR RESPECTIVE TRIGGER
POINTS.

BAND OF DRY AIR S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE LACK OF
ANY SIG MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE BLO
50PCT. WRT THE 12/00Z RUN OF THE GFS MOS...EXPECT THAT WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN BLO 10KTS...SO MOST
STORMS WILL BURN UP THEIR LCL ENERGY BEFORE THEY CAN ADVECT INTO AN
UNMODIFIED AREA. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30PCT S OF CAPE CANAVERAL...
40PCT ELSEWHERE. EARLY FORMATION AND DEEP PENETRATION OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO
(U80S/L90S). SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S SUGGEST SIMILAR MIN TEMP
READINGS BY DAYBREAK SAT.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...
THE 500MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEVADA UTAH EAST TO FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA WEAKENS AND SPLITS INTO AN EAST AND WEST PORTION AS A 500MB
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
RESULTS IN THE WIND SHIFTING FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL AREAS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH OF
ORLANDO. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK DUE TO THE RIDGE AXIS
LYING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER START FOR THE
SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST AND AN EAST WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION
WEST OF ORLANDO AND OVER LAKE COUNTY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SLOWER MOVING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN ON ROADS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE
COAST DUE TO AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PUSHING ASHORE AND LIMITING DAYTIME
HEATING TO AN EXTENT. INLAND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 90S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO ORLANDO AND REACH MID 90S IN SOUTH
LAKE COUNTY WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO REACH
LATE AFTERNOON.

STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR LINGER AROUND PAST SUNSET TO LATE EVENING
OR MIDNIGHT AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE
DISSIPATING SEA BREEZES OVER AREAS FROM SOUTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY TO
ORLANDO AND DAYTONA BEACH. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 70S AND LOW/MID 70S IN URBAN AREAS AND AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHSIDE LOCATIONS COCOA BEACH SOUTH.

MON-FRI...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MON IS PUSHED SOUTH BY AN
ADVANCING WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUE. THE WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON TO THE SOUTHWEST WED AS THE WEAK FRONT
DRAWS CLOSER BUT AS CLIMATOLOGY HAS SHOWN...FRONTS THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR SLOW DOWN AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA. HIGHS START OUT MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S MON THEN SLOWLY INCH
UPWARD INTO PREDOMINATELY MID 90S WED AND THU DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND NOT ONLY DELAYING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION
BUT ALSO HAVING THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.

THE COOL FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC TO REBUILD WEST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDFLOW DURING THE DAY TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH FRI NIGHT AS THE RIDGE TRAVELS NORTH/UP THE PENINSULA.
SEASONAL 30 TO 40 AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S INTERIOR AROUND 90/UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
COASTAL SITES: THRU 12/13Z...VCSH BTWN KTIX-KSUA WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS. BTWN 12/13Z-12/16Z...SFC WND SHFT FM S TO E/SE BLO 12KTS
ASSOCD WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BTWN 12/16Z-16/20Z...SCT IFR
TSRAS/ISOLD LIFR +TSRAS DVLPG ALNG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY DRIFTING
N/NW ARND 5KTS. BTWN 16/20Z-16/24Z...VFR WITH PREVAILING CIGS AOA
FL100...CONTG THRU 13/06Z.

INTERIOR SITES: THRU 12/18Z...VFR WITH LGT/VRBL SFC WNDS BCMG E/SE
AOB 8KTS AFT 12/12Z. BTWN 12/18Z-12/24Z...SCT IFR TSRAS/ISOLD LIFR
+TSRAS DVLPG ALNG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...DRIFTING N/NW ARND
5KTS. BTWN 13/00Z-13/02Z...BCMG VFR WITH PREVAILING CIGS BTWN
FL100-120...CONTG THRU 13/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BROAD ATLC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN FL
PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL
ATLC. LATEST C-MAN/DATA BUOY OBS MEASURING WINDS AOB 10KTS WITH SEAS
AOB 2FT...NO SIG CHANGE TO OVERALL CONDITIONS THRU DAYBREAK SUN.

SUN-TUE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
MON AND TUE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. STORMS COMING OFF THE MAINLAND MON/TUE
MAKE AFTERNOON BOATING A BIT OF A CHALLENGE ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

WED...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS WEAKENING COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  90  76 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  91  74  94  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  89  73  89  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  88  71  89  75 /  30  20  40  20
LEE  90  73  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  91  73  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  91  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  88  71  90  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER




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