Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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215
FXUS62 KMLB 052004
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...
...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE ALABAMA TWD
THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NE/ENE
ALONG THE COAST LATE. MARINE STRATOCU WILL PUSH ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
ALLOWING ATLC SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR BUT WILL TREND
CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUID WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER
ALONG THE COAST PAST LATE EVENING. LOWS 50S ACROSS CSTL AREAS AND 45-
50 OVER THE INTERIOR.

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
IMPACT WEATHER/LONG TERM...ULRICH



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