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000
FXUS62 KMLB 191416
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...METARS AND MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SW TO SSW FLOW IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
ECFL. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS MOST OF THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS OVER THE CWA HAD DISSIPATED BY SUNRISE.
EXCEPTION IS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WHERE A RESIDUAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) HAS BEEN DRIFTING TWD THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE. LIFT GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE HAS CAUSED SKIES TO CLOUD BACK
UP IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LAKE. ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING
...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE SRN THREE COUNTIES LATER TODAY FROM THIS FEATURE. MORNING
RAOBS SHOW A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO EARLY TUE...WITH
NEAR SEASONAL PWATS ~1.7"

TODAY...EXPECT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SIMILAR TO TUE...WITH ISOLD LATE
MORNING WCSB CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD
THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. ECSB WILL REMAIN PINNED NEAR COASTAL
VOLUSIA/BREVARD...BUT MAKE BETTER INLAND HEADWAY TOWARD THE TREASURE
COAST...ALTHOUGH FLOW PATTERN THERE LIKELY TO BE DISTURBED BY CLOUDS
AND EARLY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO NUDGE POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH TO 50 GIVEN
PRESENCE OF MCV AND SHOWER BAND MOVING IN FROM THE S-SE. OTRW...
POPS ELSEWHERE LOOK FINE...AS DO CLOUDS/TEMPS/WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MCV NEAR LAKE OKEE COULD SPARK EARLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TS
VCNTY SUA-FPR-VRB THROUGH 15Z-18Z. OTRW...PREV FORECAST ADVERTISES
MID TO LATE AFTN TS FOR LEE-ISM-KMCO-SFB AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
DAB-TIX-MLB-VRB AS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BACK TO SE IN AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE COAST..ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. SEAS ~2FT
NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 3FT WELL OFFSHORE. BASED UPON CURRENT BUOY AND
C-MAN OBS...SHAVED A SOLID FOOT OFF OF THE GRIDDED SEA HEIGHTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...WIMMER