Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210832
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
332 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Increased Rain Chances This Week...

Today...The ingredients are coming together for high rain chances
today as east central FL will be on the ascendant side of mid/upper
level trough across the Gulf of Mexico, under the right entrance
region of the upper jet and also in a pattern of low level warm
advection as winds become SE-S in the H9-H8 layer as the remnants of
an old frontal boundary lift back northward across srn sections into
the afternoon. Mid level temps will remain cold from from -12 to -13
C at 500 mbs increasing instability which should allow lightning
generation with deeper convection and a few strong storms. Expect
initial convection to develop across the south this morning and then
transition to central/nrn sections from mid day into the afternoon.
Will continue rain chances in the likely range with 70 percent
across much of the forecast area. Highs will reach the mid 70s north
to upper 70s to around 80 south.

Tonight...Deeper large scale lift associated with the upper jet and
mid level vort energy will move northeast into the Atlantic through
midnight but ongoing convection may linger across nrn sections into
evening before moving offshore. GFS/NAM indicate a sfc low pressure
area developing offshore across the Atlantic well northeast of the
forecast areas with a trailing stationary boundary into the area. A
light pressure pattern, elevated low level moisture and clearing mid
level cloudiness should allow late night stratus and fog to develop
across nrn interior sections. Lows will be in the lower 60s.

Wed...A quasi-stationary weak frontal boundary remains across
central Florida Wednesday. Deeper moisture will have lifted
northeast by early morning with initial disturbance to cross the
region. However, models still have sufficient moisture in place with
the lingering boundary for the development of scattered showers and
possibly a few storms across the area, mainly into the afternoon
when daytime instability will be maximized. Highest rain chances, up
to 40 percent, will exist across northern portions of central
Florida where greatest moisture will reside. Highs will range from
the mid to upper 70s across northern areas where rain chances and
cloud cover are forecast to be highest, with low 80s farther south
of Orlando. Lows are forecast in the low to mid 60s.

Thu-Fri...Mid level S/W trough crossing the Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to induce a weak low across the eastern Gulf, along the
stalled boundary extended across the area. Latest GFS takes this low
farther north across north FL Thursday, while the ECMWF remains more
consistent with a slower and farther southward progression across
the state into late week. Regardless, rain chances will remain high
across the area Thursday, up to 60-70 percent, with isolated storms
developing. Cold mid level temperatures and a more disturbed flow
aloft, may lead to a few stronger storms, but cloud cover and
limited instability should keep any severe potential low. Base of
trough shifts across the state Friday, keeping rain chances
elevated, and also keeping the potential for isolated storms across
much of the region.

Sat-Mon...Mid to upper level troughing across the eastern U.S. will
gradually push eastward and offshore into early next week. Low will
shift east and drag front south of the area by early Saturday with
drier air ending rain chances across the area into the weekend.
Another dry reinforcing cold front will then cross the area into
late weekend/early next week. Highs will range from the low to mid
70s Saturday to mid to upper 60s Monday behind reinforcing surge of
cooler air. Lows in the low to mid 50s Saturday night will drop to
the 40s to low 50s over much of the region into Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mid level cloudiness will increase into late morning with scattered
convection initially developing from KVRB-KSUA and then
transitioning northward by mid day into the afternoon. Prevalent
cloudiness will mostly be VFR above 3000 ft though lower cloud
cigs/vsbys will be associated with scattered SHRA with low chance of
TSRA into the afternoon hours. A chance of showers will linger
across nrn terminals into the evening with stratus and fog
development expected for nrn terminals mainly aft 08z.


&&

.MARINE...
Today...ESE winds to 15-20 knots offshore into the morning will
decrease some into the afternoon with seas slowly decreasing. Will
continue SCA for Sebastian to Jupiter offshore segments into the
afternoon otherwise SCEC conditions expected.

Tonight...A weak boundary across the waters and weakening pressure
pattern will allow winds to lighten and seas to continue to
decrease, ranging from 3-4 ft near shore to around 5 ft offshore
past midnight.

Wed-Sat...Unsettled weather pattern to persist through mid to late
week with rain chances remaining elevated as weak low develops over
the eastern Gulf, along stalled boundary across the region, and
shifts eastward through Florida. Wind direction across the waters
will highly depend on where boundary stalls and where low crosses
the state, but overall wind speeds expected to remain below 15 knots
for the most part with seas 3-5 feet. Northerly surge as front
shifts south across the waters late week may build seas up to 6 to 7
feet Friday and Saturday, mainly across Volusia waters and offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  62  76  64 /  70  40  40  50
MCO  77  62  79  63 /  70  30  40  30
MLB  78  63  79  66 /  70  30  30  40
VRB  80  63  80  66 /  70  20  30  40
LEE  75  61  77  62 /  70  30  40  40
SFB  77  61  78  62 /  70  40  40  30
ORL  77  63  78  63 /  70  30  40  30
FPR  80  63  80  65 /  70  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.early

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
MID-LONG TERM....Weitlich



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