Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 291408 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...WEAK AREA ON ENHANCED MCONVG HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS SINCE ABOUT 1030Z. ASCD WITH THIS IS INCREASED
CLOUDS AND ISOLD CLUSTERS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAVE PUSHED
ONSHORE SOUTH OF KMLB. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUDS/SHRA DECREASE
AGAIN BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH...AS SEEN IN SAT/RADAR IMAGERY...
HOWEVER SPOTTY PERTURBATIONS REMAIN EMBEDDED WELL UPSTREAM WITHIN
THE PERSISTENT LONG FETCH EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...INHERITED FCST ALREADY ADJUSTED FOR TREND TWD
LOWER OVERALL POPS WITH BETTER CHCS OVER THE SRN CWA. ONLY CHG WILL
BE TO NUDGE NUMBERS TO 30 IN THAT AREA. OTRW...CLOUDS/TEMPS/WINDS
LOOK GOOD.

&&

..AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SHRA/SHRA OVER THE VRB-
FPR-SUA CORRIDOR THROUGH AROUND 17Z-18Z SPREADING WEST OF THE AREA
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...STATUS QUO REMAINS AT THE BEACHES AND OVER THE ATLC. SEAS
3-4FT NEAR SHORE AND 5 TO OCNLY 6FT WELL OFFSHORE IN AN 8-9SEC PD
WINDSWELL.

 &&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

TONIGHT... LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LVL MOISTURE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND KEEP INTERIOR AREAS DRY. LOWS AROUND 70
NRN AREAS TO LWR-MID 70S SRN SECTIONS.

SAT-SUN...
THE WRN FLANK OF A DEEP AND ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
GEORGES BANK TO THE WRN GOMEX WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT IS SQUEEZED BY
AN ERLY WAVE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND WRLY FRONTAL TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. E/SE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE H100-H70
LYR ON THE FRONT SIDE THE APPROACHING WAVE...BUT H85-H50 STEERING
FLOW WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS ITS WRN EXTENSION PINCHES OFF INTO
A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ERN GOMEX. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
LVL WILL BE IN PLACE AS H30-H20 WINDS ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES ARE
ON THE WEAK SIDE...TOPPING OUT ARND 50KTS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE WEAKER MID LVL WINDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL STORM POTENTIAL AS THE
ANTICYCLONE BLOCKS OUT ANY ORGANIZED VORT MAXES WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
LIMITING ANY DEEP LYR MOISTURE ADVECTION. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ERLY WAVE AND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WILL GENERATE A STEADY E/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR...PROMOTING
THE EARLY FORMATION OF A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE THAT WILL PUSH WELL
INLAND BOTH DAYS.

LOW PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL FL WILL REQUIRE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE
THAN SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA COVERAGE THRU THE WEEKEND. INDEED...MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIS HAPPENING WITH PWAT VALUES ARND 1.5" BY
00Z MON... BUT IN A "TOP DOWN" MANNER WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
CONCENTRATING ABV THE H50 LYR WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT BLO 50PCT POPS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR THEIR CLIMO AVGS
(U80S/L90S)...MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG (U60S/L70S).

MON-THU...
A CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
REINFORCE  THE ATLC RIDGE...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE ERLY WAVE INTO
THE SE GOMEX. GFS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WETTER PATTERN AS THE
REINFORCED RIDGE WOULD TEND TO DEFLECT THE ERLY WAVE INTO THE
GOMEX...ALLOWING FL TO GAIN IT`S ASCENDING FLANK. ECMWF MODEL
SUGGESTS A CLOSED SFC LOW WILL DVLP OUT OF THE WAVE AND LIFT NE ACRS
S FL AND THE NRN BAHAMAS...A PATTERN THAT ALSO WOULD INCREASED
PRECIP FOR CENTRAL FL AS THE ONSHORE FLOW THAT WOULD PREVAIL ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF SUCH A SYSTEM WOULD PUSH THE WAVE`S DEEP LYR MOISTURE
ACRS THE STATE.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD THRU MIDWEEK...BUT WILL HOLD MAX
POPS AT 50PCT FOR NOW AS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHILE SIMILAR IN
RESULTS...DO ARRIVE AT THEM BY VERY DIFFERENT MANNERS. TEMP TREND OF
U80S/L90S FOR AFTN MAXES WILL CONTINUE...MIN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
L/M70S AS THE DRY AIR ERODES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA MOVING WESTWARD TWD CSTL
TERMINALS FROM KMLB-KSUA THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAVE
LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...E WINDS 12-15 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED TO NEAR 4 FT NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

SAT-SUN...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE WRN GOMEX
WILL INTERACT WITH AN ERLY WAVE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE ERLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AN ERLY SWELL INTO THE FL ATLC
COAST...KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT RANGE
OFFSHORE. DOMINANT PDS 8-9SEC. SLGT CHC OF SHRAS THRU THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY NOCTURNAL.

MON-TUE...LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE ERLY WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE.
SEAS SUBSIDING FROM 3-4FT ON MON TO 2-3FT ON TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...KBDI VALUES AND ERC NUMBERS HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP
ACROSS E CENTRAL FL WITH THE RECENT LACK OF RAIN. MIN RHS MAY DROP
TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH EAST WINDS TO 15 MPH
TODAY. HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  71  86  71 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  89  71  91  71 /  20  10  40  10
MLB  85  73  86  73 /  20  20  20  20
VRB  86  72  87  69 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  90  71  92  72 /  20  10  40  10
SFB  88  70  90  70 /  20  10  30  10
ORL  88  72  90  71 /  20  10  40  10
FPR  85  71  86  70 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.