Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 021345
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH UNFAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS...

CURRENT-TODAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH EAST WINDS AT 41009 & 41010 WHILE GRAND BAHAMA
HAD WEST WINDS.  THERE WAS LITTLE/NO AIR MASS DEFINITION THOUGH AS
ONSHORE FLOW WAS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.6
TO 1.8 INCHES.  THE CAPE SOUNDING DID HAVE 1.95 BUT THAT WAS NEAR AN
ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE LINE WHERE SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON
AND OFF.  THE TAMPA SOUNDING HAS AN INVERSION TO OVERCOME AROUND
750MB AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE MINUS 6.

THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND HRRR INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
MORNING 0-6KM MEAN WINDS ARE NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS DO NOT SHOW
PUSHBACK TO THE COAST...SO THIS INDICATES THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT
GENERATING VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
MORNING SOUNDING PARAMETERS AND EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG KVRB-KFPR WILL BE DISSIPATING SOON.  HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS CUMULUS START FORMING THIS MORNING.  EXPECT IFR CHANCES
IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS AND BE BRIEF IN DURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WAS
CAUSING A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH CHANGE EXCEPT TO SWING WIND AROUND IN THE SOUTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY. BUOYS INDICATE SEAS 2-3 FEET AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE.  DOMINANT WIND WAVE PERIODS AROUND 5 SECONDS WILL CAUSE AN
UNCOMFORTABLE CHOP FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
LATEST GAUGE INFORMATION SHOWS THE CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FURTHER RISES.

THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE AT LAKE HARNEY TODAY
AND ON FRIDAY AT DELAND. IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP OVER
OR UPSTREAM FROM THESE AREAS...THERE WILL BE FURTHER AGGRAVATION
OVER THE BASIN.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...SHARP










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