Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 270218
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA PER METARS/OBSERVATIONS. PATRICK AFB AND MELBOURNE WERE THE
LATEST TO EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. RADARS INDICATING A PERSISTENT STREAM OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES. RAP/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT THE SHOWERS WERE MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE BACK RIGHT QUADRANT OF
A MID LEVEL/700MB JET LENDING ADDITIONAL FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NORTH...TO THE LOW/MID LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BOTH THE RUC AND GFS NOT IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE THE 700MB
JET OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SEBASTIAN AND SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET AND IN TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR NORTH DOES NOT WORK ITS
VERY FAR IF AT ALL INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THEREFORE WILL KEEP
SKIES CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...POST-FROPA TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THE MORNING UPDATE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON... REACHING 70 OR A LITTLE ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...MARKING THE SECONDARY
FROPA...HAS DROPPED READINGS BACK INTO THE U50S. KMLB 88D AND
CCAFS MESONET WIND DATA SHOW THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG COASTAL AREAS (BUT NOT YET INLAND)...REACHING
NRN BREVARD CO WITHIN THE LAST HR.

OVERNIGHT/FRI...SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOUNDARY BECOME BRIDGED BY DEVELOPING
NNE-NE FLOW FROM THE LARGE/STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CTRL-
ERN CONUS. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SWLY
H85 FLOW...WHICH ACTUALLY BACKS SOME TO S-SSE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS/OCCASIONAL
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL BUT NOT COLD...BUT
WITH A CHILLY N-NE BREEZE. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...SOME U40S PSBL
OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND L60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. FRI
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH L70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERLYING SHALLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST LOFT WILL KEEP MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...SIMILAR TO GFS MOS...BUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NAM MOS. WHILE QPF GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...DURATION OF LIGHT RAIN COULD RESULT IN NEAR 0.25 INCH TOTALS
IN FEW AREAS. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE 50S INLAND...BUT 60S
ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 FAR NW INTERIOR TO MID 70S FAR SE
COAST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
ONSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND...REBOUNDING TEMPS WITH GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY... AND
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE/WED...EXCEPT NEAR 80S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW MOVING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO THE
TAMPA AREA. MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND ABOVE 4000 FEET OVER NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WIND THAT WAS PUSHING A DRIER AIR MASS DOWN THE CENTER
OF THE STATE KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS THE REST OF THE NIGHT VERO BEACH
NORTH AND TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS VERO BEACH
SOUTH.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

SMALL AREA OF HIGHER END IFR (BKN-OVC007-009) DEVELOPED INVOF VRB-
FPR A LITTLE AFTER 18Z BUT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LOCALIZED AND
TEMPORARY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
BKN015-025. TO THE NORTH...CIGS VFR BKN-OVC040-060...BUT INCREASING
COOL NRLY FLOW MAY CAUSE THESE TO LOWER TO MVFR/020-030 AFTER 00Z.
CIGS TEMPORARILY BREAKING UP IN A SMALL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF LEE-DAB
BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS CIGS NEAR OVC015 PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THAT "SUCKER HOLE".


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. WINDS AT BUOY 009 AND TRIDENT PIER AT CAPE
CANAVERAL SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THOSE SITES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION AFTER COORD WITH MIA...MADE LATE CHANGE A
LITTLE AFTER 1PM TO BRIEFLY EXTEND SCA (FOR WINDS ONLY ) FOR ANOTHER
3HR (TIL 4PM) PLAN TO LET THIS EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
LULL IN WINDS/ SEAS TONIGHT TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH BUILDING TO
NORTH TIGHTENS LOCAL PGRAD...AND PUSHES SEAS BACK TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...AS
SEAS QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE
8-11 FT RANGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR BEACH EROSION
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER SE BY MONDAY AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY AND 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-8
FT OFFSHORE...THEN GENERALLY NEAR 4 FT NEARSHORE TUE/WED AND 5 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  63  55  70 /   0  10  20  40
MCO  51  68  55  78 /  10  20  20  30
MLB  58  68  62  74 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  61  70  66  77 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  48  64  51  75 /   0  10  20  30
SFB  50  66  53  73 /   0  20  20  30
ORL  51  67  55  75 /  10  20  20  30
FPR  61  71  68  78 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WIMMER



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