Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017


Today...Morning soundings show just a bit more moisture in place
compared to yesterday. PW values some 1/4 inch higher than this time
yesterday. Still values only near of just below 1.5 inch at XMR to
near 1.8 in TBW. Soundings also continue to show relatively warm air
aloft due to ridge still being nearly stacked over region.
Pronounced cap around H7 with temps +11 to 12C over central FL, and
H5 readings -4 to -5C. The affects of the ridge will continue to
supress convection, but increased moisture should increase coverage
compared to yesterday. Ongoing SHRA activity over coastal waters
support this idea.

Short range guidance, both local ARW-WRF and HRRR depict SHRA first
developing near or just inland of the coast south of the Cape with
more vigorous storm development over the interior by late afternoon
due to east and west coast sea breeze interaction. Low level ridge
position a bit south of past days should support more focus closer
to the coast north of the Cape (along I-4 coridor), but
aformentioned models have backed off on coverage compared to
previous runs. Will continue to monitor trends. Weak steering flow
from south to north will support localized heavy rainfall,
especially along breeze collision and secondary boundary
interactions...again mainly over the interior.

Will keep forecast largely as is with SHRA/TS coverage, and
soundings support temp fcst. Only minor tweaks to winds made for
ongoing trends.


VFR into midday with scattered TSRA developing this afternoon
focused on northern terminals (MCO/SFB/DAB) where breeze boundary
interactions will be more pronounced late. Will consider TEMPO
period with 18z update.


Prev... Today...Atlc ridge axis draped across central FL and
adjacent Atlc will produce a southerly flow turning SE near the
coast in a sea breeze this afternoon. A small (2 ft) east swell will
be the primary contribution to wave height in addition to a small
wind chop. Combined seas up to 4 ft well offshore (beyond 20 nm)
Volusia and Brevard coasts.





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