Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 311945
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
245 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are ongoing early this
afternoon across far southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of the mid
level moisture plume, well in advance of the synoptic surface
front positioned just north of the Interstate 44 corridor. The
afternoon activity is generally pushing slowly to the south and
east, likely clearing the area by late afternoon into early
evening. It will also serve to stabilize this area into at least a
portion of the overnight. Additional afternoon and early evening
development may occur along the synoptic front, where some
clearing has allowed CAPEs near 2000 J/kg to develop across parts
of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. If this does
occur, these will tend to diminish with the loss of daytime
heating.

It is very possible that a good part of the overnight will be
largely dry for much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas,
with a likely MCS in northern and central Texas preventing much in
the way of convection northward into Oklahoma and Arkansas. The
best chance of overnight development in this region will be along
the front.

The front will remain stalled across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas through the latter part of the upcoming week,
with a slow moving upper low creeping its way eastward to the
south of the region. The highest thunderstorm chances will focus
along and south of the front, with some potential for locally
heavy rainfall given expected slow storm movement and unseasonably
high precipitable water values. A Flash Flood Watch may become
necessary at some point if confidence increases that the same
places will receive multiple rounds of heavier rainfall. Although
a watch was considered this afternoon, that confidence is not
there at this point.

By the latter part of the weekend, the western CONUS ridge builds
enough to allow the front to finally move south of the region,
bringing several days of dry weather and near to above normal
temperatures by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  77  62  77 /  50  70  50  50
FSM   67  80  66  80 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   64  76  63  77 /  50  70  70  60
BVO   62  77  61  78 /  50  50  40  30
FYV   62  77  61  76 /  50  70  70  60
BYV   62  78  61  75 /  50  60  70  60
MKO   64  77  62  77 /  50  70  70  60
MIO   62  78  61  78 /  50  50  30  30
F10   64  76  62  76 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   66  78  66  78 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22



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