Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 211724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

MVFR ceilings will be possible early in the forecast period at
the northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

Current forecast for Today is on track and have only
made a few minor adjustments to the short-term grids
to better reflect current trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 602 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/


The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites thru the period. Some
low IFR stratus could produce a cig at KFSM over the next several
hours. Confidence wasn`t high enough at KMLC and the other NW AR
sites, so a scattered low cloud mention was added. South winds
will increase by mid morning, with gusts 15 to 25 kts at the NE
OK and NW AR sites. Winds should subside by 00Z this evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

The heat and humidity will continue for the next couple of days,
but a pattern change is coming for early next week. Stationary
front extends across northwest Oklahoma through northeast Kansas
this morning and will continue to wash out as the new synoptic
boundary forms to the north. Convection which moved into southwest
Oklahoma from TX weakened quickly after midnight, and we will just
have some of the convective cirrus across eastern Oklahoma this

Thermal axis will shift west of the area by Friday, so today will
be the last day for triple digit heat index values. Above average
temperatures will continue through the weekend, before cold front
arrives by Monday in the central Plains. Will continue with
precip chances beginning Monday for continuity, but the trend has
been for slower progress of the western upper trough, and this
may delay the significant precipitation until Tue/Wed.
Temperatures Tue/Wed will be several degrees cooler behind the
front and may be even cooler when combined with cloud
cover/ongoing precip.




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