Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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898
FXUS64 KTSA 061711
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
some increase in south winds after 15z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming nicely under mostly sunny skies, with light
south winds developing on western side of sfc high. No changes
needed to the forecast at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Light and variable winds will becoming more southerly this
afternoon as high pressure begins to shift east of the region.
A few scattered high clouds are expected, otherwise VFR
conditions are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure will reign supreme across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Today at the surface and aloft. This will result
in most sunny skies and slightly above normal temperatures across
the area Today.

The Omega block pattern that has been in place in the upper levels
will begin to unravel this weekend as a potent shortwave moves out
of Canada and across the upper mid-west. This will allow the upper
level low currently spinning off the California coast to move into
the plains by late in the weekend and into Monday. Thunderstorm chances
will increase Sunday as a lead shortwave associated the main upper level
low moves out of the southern Rockies and across the southern Plains.
This feature will help initiate thunderstorms along the dryline across
western Oklahoma Sunday afternoon. This activity could move into eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday night.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon/evening
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a dryline moves further
east into Oklahoma and another upper level shortwave moves across the
region. Some of these storms could be strong to severe as the airmass across
the area become increasingly unstable.

The weather pattern will remain unsettled through the end of the week
as a frontal boundary lingers over or near the area for several days.
Have at least some pops in the forecast from Tuesday through Thursday
as a result.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  59  86  64 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   83  56  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   82  57  85  64 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   83  55  85  62 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   79  50  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   79  54  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   82  56  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   82  57  84  62 /   0   0   0  10
F10   81  57  84  62 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   80  55  84  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14



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