Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 250806
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LUCKILY MOST VEGETATION
HAS NOT CURED YET OR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE
THREAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM/BREEZY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY WITH FROPA. QPF AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOLLOWED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
FRONTAL TIMING COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT BY MID WEEK
WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES SE OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  89  64 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   86  60  88  59 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   88  62  88  65 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   86  55  91  59 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   83  55  85  59 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   83  58  84  62 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   87  60  89  61 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   84  59  88  64 /   0  10   0  10
F10   88  61  89  63 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   87  61  88  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12





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