Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 212018
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
218 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Main concern for this forecast package is the severe weather
potential over the next 8 to 10 hours across portions of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Deep layer moisture has increased today per blended TPW products,
especially across parts of the area to the southeast of I-44. In
response, instability has increased some over the past few hours
areawide, with mesoanalysis showing MUCAPEs currently from
500-1000 J/kg in parts of far southeast Oklahoma. Scattered
showers have developed early this afternoon within the moist axis,
although no lightning strikes have yet been detected to the north
of the Red River. Some destabilization should continue through the
mid to late afternoon hours, with strong wind fields supporting at
least some potential for initial low-topped supercell development
and an eventual transition to a linear structure. Damaging winds
will be the main severe weather threat, with tornado potential
being a secondary concern. Very high low level shear exists in
parts of far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which
is consistent with local ensembled updraft helicity progs, and as
such, the highest chance of a tornado will be located in this
region, likely to the south and east of a line from Ozark to Fort
Smith to Wilburton to Antlers. That being said, a nonzero tornado
threat will exist almost all the way north to I-44. Instability
will diminish through the evening hours, with the shower and
thunderstorm chance ending between midnight and 3 am Monday.

Wraparound cloud cover will overspread mainly northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas during the day Monday, leading to a cloudy
and blustery day, as westerly winds should also gust to near 40
mph at times. A Wind Advisory may be required tomorrow for some
areas north of I-40. The windy conditions, low relative
humidities, and lower cloud cover in parts of east central and
southeast Oklahoma could lead to an increased fire danger tomorrow
afternoon in locations that do not receive appreciable rainfall
today and tonight.

Tuesday through Thursday should be fairly quiet with temperatures
near to above normal and dry conditions. Fire danger may increase
some on Thursday as winds increase ahead of the next storm system
that will move through Friday and into Saturday. Moisture does not
look as abundant ahead of this system, with no more than an
isolated thunderstorm chance across southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas Friday night. Cooler and drier weather will
arrive behind the system to close out next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  49  29  54 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   42  53  32  54 /  90   0   0   0
MLC   42  52  30  55 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   40  47  28  52 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   41  46  29  49 /  90  10   0   0
BYV   41  47  29  48 / 100  10  10   0
MKO   39  49  28  52 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   40  45  28  50 /  70  10  10   0
F10   40  50  29  54 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   42  56  32  57 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....22



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