Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 092200
ESFPUB

ESFPUB
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Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MST Tue January 9 2018

...Water Supply Outlook for South Central and Southeast Colorado as
of January 1 2018...

Snow accumulation in southern Colorado has gotten off to a slow
start in Water-Year 2018. Both the Rio Grande and the Arkansas
basins are well behind normal precipitation for the first of
January. A consistent pattern of northwesterly flow has funneled
most of the storm systems north into Wyoming and Montana.

Snowpack in the overall Arkansas basin is at about 48 percent of
the 30-year median.

As of January 1, snowpack in the Upper Rio Grande Basin of south
central Colorado was at 29 percent of median.  The snow-water
deficit was spread across the headwaters of the Rio Grande. The
Conejos and Rio San Antonio Basins were at a combined 42 percent of
median.  The Culebra and Trinchera Basins were at a combined 26
percent of median.  The Upper Rio Grande Headwaters portion of the
basin reported 26 percent of median snowpack.

The January 1 snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin was at 48 percent
of median overall.  The upper Arkansas River headwaters have
accumulated the largest snowpack but the amounts diminish quickly
as you move south. The northern headwaters portion of the basin
reported 81 percent of median snowpack.  In the middle portion of
the basin, the combined Cucharas and Huerfano Basins reported 17
percent of median snowpack. Over the southern portion of the basin,
the Purgatoire basin reported 21 percent of median snowpack.

At the end of December, overall reservoir storage was above average
in the Arkansas River and Rio Grande systems. Storage in the Rio
Grande basin was at 123 percent of average compared to 86 percent of
average last year at the same time.  Across southeast Colorado,
overall storage in the Arkansas basin was at 99 percent of average,
compared to 127 percent of average at the same time last year.

For the Rio Grande Basin, stream flow volumes for the upcoming
runoff season are forecast to be well-below average in all of the
basin. Following are the latest available stream flow forecasts for
selected locations in the Rio Grande basin assuming normal
precipitation for the remainder of the snow season:

Location                   % of Average     Runoff Period

 Rio Grande River
  Thirty Mile Bridge             52            Apr-Jul
  Wagon Wheel Gap                49            Apr-Sep
  Near Del Norte                 50            Apr-Sep
South Fork Rio Grande River
  South Fork                     47            Apr-Sep
Saguache Creek
  Near Saguache                  63            Apr-Sep
Alamosa Creek
  Terrace Reservoir Inflow       50            Apr-Sep
La Jara Creek
  Near Capulin                   44            Mar-Jul
Trinchera Creek
  Above Turners Ranch            38            Apr-Sep
Conejos River
  Platoro Reservoir Inflow       58            Apr-Sep
  Near Mogote                    54            Apr-Sep
Culebra Creek
  San Luis                       31            Apr-Sep
San Antonia River
  Ortiz                          28            Apr-Sep
Los Pinos
  Ortiz                          44            Apr-Sep

For the Arkansas Basin, stream flow volumes for the upcoming
runoff season are generally forecast to be below- to well-below
average. Following are the latest available stream flow forecasts
for selected locations in the Arkansas Basin assuming normal
precipitation for the remainder of the snow season:

Location                   % of Average     Runoff Period

Arkansas River
  Granite                        84            Apr-Sep
  Salida                         83            Apr-Sep
  Canon City                     81            Apr-Sep
  Above Pueblo                   78            Apr-Sep
Chalk Creek
  Near Nathrop                   73            Apr-Sep
Grape Creek
  Near Westcliffe                26            Apr-Sep
Huerfano River
  Near Redwing                   58            Apr-Sep
Cucharas River
  Near La Veta                   49            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Trinidad                       38            Apr-Sep

These forecasts reflect natural flow only.  Actual observed flow
will likely be affected by upstream water management.

The forecasts below are for observed flow at 2 locations on the
southeast Colorado plains in the lower part of the Arkansas Basin.
These forecasts include the effects of projected upstream water
management activities expected to affect flows.

Arkansas River
  Las Animas                     78            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Las Animas                     42            Apr-Sep

This outlook is based on recent observations of snowpack and assumes
normal precipitation for the remainder of the snow season.  If the
actual observed precipitation deviates from normal, then the actual
observed runoff will likely be different than the forecast in this
outlook.  This is the first of six scheduled outlooks for the 2018
runoff season.

Users of this product are encouraged to contact the National Weather
Service in Pueblo for continued updates on the water supply
situation.  Meteorological conditions could develop that would have
a significant impact on water supply forecasts.  The next outlook
will be issued during the first part of February.

For additional hydrologic products available on the world wide
web, visit the Pueblo National Weather Service web site at
weather.gov/pub.

Or visit the NRCS or the NWS River Forecast Centers that provide
our water supply forecasts at:

weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wsf/index.html

This message is the result of collaboration between the National
Weather Service and the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

AJA



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