Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
000
FXUS65 KREV 271138
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
338 AM PST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will produce slick and snowy travel conditions for
the Monday morning commute. Lighter snow showers may linger later
today into Tuesday. High pressure will then bring drier conditions
with light winds, with cool temperatures through Wednesday
followed by a slow warming trend through Saturday. The next storm
system may bring rain, snow and gusty winds next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Bands of snow showers continue across much of eastern CA mainly
from Alpine County northward, and in parts of western NV mainly
north of Yerington. A run through of area web cameras showed some
light accumulations up to a few inches across much of the
advisory areas. A more impressive snow band persisted across
Janesville and US-395 east of Susanville, with another band setting
up near Doyle so these areas may have received higher amounts.
For western NV, snow amounts have been very sparse so far.

For this morning, most guidance sources are in good agreement with
snow showers winding down from north to south, with the best
potential shifting to areas south of I-80 and into Mono County.
Additional accumulations up to 3 inches are most likely from Tahoe
southward to Mono County, with a secondary maximum of an inch or
two shifting to west Central NV, mainly east of US-95 and
affecting US-50 east of Fallon to New Pass Summit. Elsewhere, 1
inch or less is expected today, except for locally higher amounts if
a heavier band persists over the same area. With temperatures
below freezing, even these light snow amounts will likely produce
slick and hazardous conditions for the Monday morning commute. By
late morning and through the rest of today, snow shower coverage
will diminish with little or no additional accumulations expected.
Gusty winds especially on ridges this morning will gradually
diminish through the day.

For tonight into Tuesday, one more weak disturbance within
northwest flow aloft could keep light snow showers going mainly
north of Susanville-Lovelock, where a few locations could receive
up to 1 inch of light powdery snow. Otherwise, little to no
additional accumulations are expected. Dry conditions with light
winds will then prevail Tuesday night through midweek as ridge of
high pressure builds along the CA coast.

Temperatures will remain below average for the next few days with
highs mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s, then warming into the
40s-lower 50s by Wednesday. Chilly lows mainly in the teens to
lower 20s will prevail for the next few nights while colder
valleys near the Sierra could see temperatures near or below zero.
MJD

.LONG TERM...Thursday and beyond...

Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will continue into the
end of the work week, with a low amplitude ridge over the west.
Changes are in store for the weekend as an area of low pressure digs
south out of the Gulf of Alaska, dampening the ridge and replacing
it with broadscale cyclonic flow. Forecast models have continued to
trend with lowering heights across the region for the weekend,
allowing for moisture to make it farther south. This leads to better
precipitation chances, which has been reflected in the forecast.
Northern CA/NV remains on the southern edge of the deepest moisture,
which is directed into the Pacific Northwest, so overall
precipitation totals look modest at this point.

The jet stream sags farther south as well, with recent model runs
indicating 700 mb winds could reach 40 to 65 mph Saturday into
Sunday. This is likely to lead to strong and gusty winds over the
weekend with possible travel impacts to high profile vehicles,
aviation, in addition to those with interests on area lakes.

Beyond the weekend, the pattern looks to remain progressive with no
strong signals showing ridging building over the west to stop the
storm track. However, atmospheric river ensembles suggest best
chances for moisture will remain north into the Pacific Northwest,
so there also doesn`t appear to be a strong signal for significant
storms either. -Dawn

&&

.Aviation...

A weak disturbance is passing through the area this morning bringing
scattered snow showers and widespread mountain obscuration. These
showers have been very hit or miss in western Nevada, while they are
more persistent in the Sierra. Timing for the best chances of snow
and total amounts at area terminals are as follows:

KRNO/KCXP: Through 18z today, up to 1 inch
KTRK/KTVL: Through 19z today, 2-4 inches
KMMH: Through 23z today, 1-3 inches

In addition to the snow, winds remain gusty with valley gusts of 15
to 30 kts and Sierra ridge gusts up to 80 kts. This is leading to
areas of turbulence with rotors possible, including the report of a
rotor cloud over KRNO as of 3 am.

Isolated showers may linger into Tuesday, with a 20% chance of one
moving over a terminal. No significant weather is expected the
remainder of the work week. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning NVZ005.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning
     CAZ070-071.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.