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000
FXUS65 KPUB 242121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW...PRODUCING
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS FRI AFTN. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING S-SW WINDS WERE HELPING TO WARM THINGS UP INTO THE
80S AND 90S WHILE PUSHING MOST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE EAST TOWARDS
KANSAS. AS OF 2 PM THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE WAS STILL HOLDING ONTO
A 49 DEWPOINT...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE I25
CORRIDOR HAD DRIED OUT INTO THE 30S AND THE COUPLE OF STORMS WERE
LEFT GASPING. STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE OUT THERE THOUGH...AS WAS
EVIDENT BY A VERY LARGE DUST DEVIL NEAR THE COMANCHE POWER PLANT.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO DIE OFF SOON AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE RIGHT ALONG THE CO AND KS BORDER WHERE THE AIR IS
THE JUICIEST. AS FOR THE ONGOING RED FLAG...HAD TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTN WHILE FREMONT COUNTY MOST LIKELY ACHIEVED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 8
PM. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS FOR SATURDAY...SAME PATTERN IN PLACE WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY
LOWER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOST AREAS SAVE FOR THE CO/KS BORDER.
700 AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM...SO AN EVEN HOTTER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW RH
LEVELS. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE ONGOING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT DROPPED NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY SINCE LATEST FUELS
INFO IS A NO THERE. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER TOMORROW SO PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT FIRES SHOULD BE
TAKEN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

GENERALLY HOT...GUSTY AND DUSTY OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF DRYLINE RELATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SKIRTING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EACH DAY. BEING ALONG
THE DRYLINE...THIS CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...SO COULD GET BUSY AT TIMES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOS.

WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE ALREADY OUT FOR THE FUEL RECEPTIVE PARTS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORE MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK...PENDING LATER MODEL DATA AND FUEL OBSERVATIONS.

AROUND WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.  BUT NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THIS. SOME SUGGEST MORE LIMITED COOLING AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE.
SO...IT MAY END UP BEING COOLER AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL DRY.
EITHER WAY...IT WILL PROBABLY BE WINDY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL A LONG
WAY OFF...AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS LESS COOL AND WET WITH THE
CHANGE...THE ECMWF IS VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT A COOL...WET PERIOD.
TOO EARLY TO CALL...BUT ANOTHER COOL...WET PERIOD WOULD KIND OF
FIT THE OVERALL PATTERN WE`VE SEEN THIS SPRING. TIME WILL TELL. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY
AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH 05Z...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN MORE SPARSE SAT
AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ221-222-
225-227.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE