Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KRIW 140433
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1033 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOW RH...WARM TEMPS...AND GUSTY WIND TO 25
KNOTS IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SEE CYSRFWRIW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT)

DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTH...WHILE
MOST AREAS REMAIN CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BIT OF MOISTURE MAY
TRY TO CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BORDER FOR SUNDAY EVENING
BUT AT THIS POINT WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WE LEFT
THINGS MAINLY DRY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND
DRY DAYS WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AND DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. HOWEVER...IT COULD LOWER HEIGHTS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
OF THESE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SPARSE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A FEW MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
NEXT DECENT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING THURSDAY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH A BIT MORE WIND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MORE UNSETTLED DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM AT THE MIDDLE OF LAST
WEEK...THIS SYSTEM IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT POLAR SO IT LOOKS
MUCH WARMER WITH ANY SNOW RESTRICTED TO AREAS ABOVE PASS LEVEL. THE
MODELS DO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY HOWEVER...WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
SLOWER WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST. FOR NOW...WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE SINCE
UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A GUSTY WIND WILL
OCCUR AGAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING FROM ABOUT 19Z SUNDAY
UNTIL 01Z MONDAY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA TERMINAL
SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS COMBINING WITH CRITICAL
FUELS WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS UINTA...SWEETWATER AND
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 2 PM UNTIL 8 PM MDT.
THUS A NEW RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH SUNDAY.  SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTH...WHILE MOST
AREAS REMAIN CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.  BREEZY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM 2 PM UNTIL
8 PM MDT WYZ277-279.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.