Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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162
FXUS65 KRIW 310535
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1035 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARDS MORNING. SOME FLURRIES AND LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO LOWS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE WEST. AND CLEARING CONTINUING
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STILL SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
WYOMING BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TAKES SHAPE. THE CLOSED
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SWING THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TOWARD THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH AND TAKING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA
MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THIS
WEATHER FEATURE MONDAY. THE BEST Q VECTOR FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN A LINE RUNNING FROM
WEST CENTRAL SWEETWATER COUNTY TO SOUTH PASS AND THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE WIND RIVER MTNS TO FT WASHAKIE TO JUST SOUTH OF RIVERTON TO
KAYCEE. THE LOCAL WRF QPF SEEMS TO HAVE THE RESULTING PRECIP
DISTRIBUTION PEGGED. LND SHOULD WIND UP WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AND CASPER WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES ON
CASPER MTN. RIVERTON WILL LIKELY BE ON THE CUSP OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW BEARING CLOUDS LOOMING JUST TO THE
SOUTH...AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE TYPE OF SCENARIOS...BUT CANT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR LESS THERE. RKS SHOULD SEE 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 INCHES SLATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SWEETWATER COUNTY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS.
WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CO AND THEN
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER FAR SE CO...NE TO EAST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY MONDAY FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW
ALONG I-80...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SWEETWATER. THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO SE. ON TUESDAY...A MINOR
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SE IN THE NW FLOW TOWARD WY WITH SNOWFALL
INCREASING IN FAR WESTERN WY LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUE NIGHT
AND INTO WED. THU SHOULD FEATURE RELATIVELY BENIGN WX. THEN THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...STRATIFORM SNOWFALL WILL GET UNDER WAY IN WESTERN
WY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS UNDERWAY ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT ASCT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WITH THIS SNOW
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. KEPT LOW CHC SNOW IN THE NW SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NEXT SW IN THE NW FLOW ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARMING UP SOMEWHAT FRIDAY.

AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS

A STRATOCU DECK /MVFR OR LOW VFR/ WITH FLURRIES IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...MAINLY NW OF KAFO-KPNA LINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP...NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOO DEVELOP IN MOST AREA...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SWEETWATER COUNTY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OVER THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z
MONDAY...MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL

ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE OWL CREEK MOUNTAINS...TO THE CASPER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE...AND SHOULD BE ENTIRELY GONE BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOME
LOW CEILINGS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BEGIN TO FORM BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z...WITH KCPR BEING IMPACTED THE MOST FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

FIRE WEATHER...

SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARDS MORNING. SOME FLURRIES AND LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO LOWS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE WEST. AND CLEARING CONTINUING
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND GENERALLY POOR SMOKE
DISPERSAL.

$$

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WM
SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



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