000
FXUS65 KRIW 080600
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MILD TEMPERATURES AND RECENT RAINFALL HAS EXPEDITED LOW ELEVATION
SNOW MELT AND HAS CAUSED SOME RIVERS TO BREAK UP RECENTLY...MOST
NOTABLY ALONG THE BIGHORN RIVER NEAR WORLAND WHERE AN ICE JAM HAS
FORMED CAUSING EXTENSIVE FLOODING SOUTHWEST OF WORLAND. AN ICE JAM
MAY ALSO HAVE FORMED NEAR TEN SLEEP. EXCESSIVE SNOW MELT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE REST OF THE BIGHORN
BASIN AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH MANY BASEMENTS
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS TAKING ON WATER EACH AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FURTHER TOMORROW AS A RIDGE
FOLDS OVER AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A FEW
ISOLATED 60 DEGREE SPOTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN
VALLEYS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ONLY SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE UNSTABLE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH...THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ADD MUCH
WATER TO THE ONGOING FLOOD PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SOME AREAS OF THE NORTH
AND EAST WILL PUSH 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW...RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS DEVELOPING WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.  WINDS WILL CRANK UP EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE
WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS THROUGH CASPER.  LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN COME DOWN FROM THE
NORTH.  THROUGH THE EVENING THE CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INCREASING IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH
FACING SLOPES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY.  SNOW WILL BE A
THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO COOL.  TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE PARTIAL CLEARING.  FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME QUITE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST
ON FRIDAY WITH WARMING EAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

BACK EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST HURRAH OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH KLND-KRIW-KCPR ROUTES BY 08Z-09Z/SAT.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE FOG AFTER THE FOLLOWING MID
CLOUD DECK OF 080-100MSL CLEARS THE AREA. THESE 3 SITES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE IFR/MVFR FOG...BUT KCPR MAY GET THE SOUTHWEST WIND
BEFORE FOG BECOMES A HINDRANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AFTER
17Z/SAT. WIND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT KCPR BETWEEN 14Z-17Z/SAT WITH
SOUTHWEST 15-25KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. KCOD AND KWRL SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE ONLY CONCERN BEING
PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KWRL EARLY SATURDAY. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z/SAT FROM THE OWL CREEK
MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE. FOOTHILLS
WILL BE OBSCURED BY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING FROM
10Z-17Z/SAT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND OF LITTLE
CONCERN. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL ABOUT 10Z/SAT IN
VICINITY OF KRKS. OTHERWISE...NO SNOW/RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND 12-22KTS AT KRKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY
WIND OF CONCERN AT WESTERN TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. SATURDAY WILL
BE HIGH AND DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR OR INTO
THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GET GUSTY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND CORRIDOR IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...AS WILL AS IN THE
WIND RIVER AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR TETON...LINCOLN...SUBLETTE...
BIG HORN...PARK...WASHAKIE...JOHNSON...AND NATRONA COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN