Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 141757 CCA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1156 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LEAVES A QUIET
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HELP TO INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WIND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE ONE
LAST WARM AND DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY LEAVES SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
PORTIONS OF FREMONT COUNTY. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

WIND ACROSS ADDITIONAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK
SPRINGS AND CASPER WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL QUICKLY USHER IN COOLER H7
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARK AND TETON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. SOME ENERGY FROM A
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY HAVE SOME MOUNTAIN POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT. RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...JUST
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING S-SW SFC WIND
DEVELOPING WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AT RIDGE TOPS TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...RESULTING IN LLWS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE...TETONS...AND THE WYOMING AND SALTS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO MIX TO THE SFC AT EVERY TERMINAL AFTER ABOUT 17Z
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND SHIFTING THE FOCUS TO THE
ABSAROKA RANGE AND CODY FOOTHILLS...AND THE BIGHORNS FOR VERY
GUSTY WINDS AND BOUTS OF LLWS AFTER 00Z THU.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
GUSTY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SYSTEM SHIFT...WITH ONE MORE ROUND OF LOWERING HUMIDITY AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND GUSTY WIND CONTINUES TO LEAVE AN ELEVATED THREAT
FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. THE THREAT WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM






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