Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 060430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EARLIER THINKING CONTINUES. ANY RETURNS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. WITH LACK OF ANY CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE DO NOT SEE
ENOUGH REASONING TO ADD POPS SO WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE RH VALUES REMAIN LOW...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF SO ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WEAK
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDING CREST OF RIDGE OVER
WESTERN ND AND ADJACENT S CANADA REMAIN NORTH OF INL BORDER AREA.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DROP SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE NORTHERN FA AFT MIDNIGHT HOWEVER UPSTREAM CLOUD TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS OVERDONE. WITH UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MAINLY
CI WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SO FAR HIGH BASED CU OVER NW MN NOT DOING MUCH SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE NE FA. OTHERWISE WILL BE WATCHING
BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO N CENTRAL
ND ND TO SEE HOW THAT HOLDS TOGETHER. ADJUSTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER...AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH A VERY
WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD...MANY SPOTS HAVE REACHED THE 80S TO LOW
90S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO
WILL KEEP RED FLAG HEADLINES GOING. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WV COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THINK THAT ANYTHING WILL BE
VERY ELEVATED AN NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND...BUT INCLUDED SOME
LOW POPS IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN CASE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS POP UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND A HIGH START POINT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL HELP KNOCK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND DIG DOWN INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS
WILL MOSTLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD AGAIN
SEE 80S ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR
AS PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION LOW AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP
LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT WEEK SHALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND MORE MOISTURE IS PUMPED INTO THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES....WITH TEMPS DECLINING FROM AROUND 70 TO MORE
SEASONAL MID 60S BE WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH
APPROACHING WSHFT WITH COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY WINDS BLO 10KTS HOWEVER AT 925 MB 35-40KT FROM
THE SW OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FA SO ADDED MENTION OF LLWS AT FAR-
TVF AND BJI PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MIN RHS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN E ND AND VALLEY AREAS OF NW MN
WITH 20 TO 25 MIN RHS IN THE MN TREES. THESE LOW RHS COMBINED WITH
WEST TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30MPH ARE CREATING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND AS
TEMPS DECREASE MIN RHS WILL INCREASE. MAX RHS HOWEVER OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH. MIN RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...CREATING
ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR E ND AND THE RRV AREAS OF
MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...JK



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