Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 310814
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
314 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Forecast challenges concern pcpn chances/coverage, temperatures
and funnel/weak tornado potential over the far nw this afternoon.
Models overall in good agreement and will follow high resolution
model guidance for pops.

Surface low over the central valley will propagate NW as it phases
with approaching upper low by this evening. By late afternoon
surface low center should be along US/Canadian border area of N central
ND or NW of our forecast area. Later this afternoon LI`s drop
just below zero vcnty low however minimal cape generated by
models. T chances look low but cannot rule it out. At this point
with surface low to our NW and attendant boundaries either north
or west of the area feel there is a low threat for funnel or weak
tornado spin ups but this will need to be monitored if low ends up
farther south and east. Elsewhere arcing rain area should be
across the far north and east of the valley. Dry slotting should
keep the remainder of the FA dry. Temperatures within dry slot
should range not too far from average with much cooler values over
the far north and east.

Upper low will begin to drift east across the northern fa tonight.
best convergence will be across the north with wrap around more
spotty farther south. Minimum temperatures a few degrees either
side of 50 expected.

Low will continue to propagate eastward Wednesday into ontario.
Rain associated with the low will gradually end from west to east
during the day. With much cooler column overhead temperatures will
range 10 to 15 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Ridge of high pressure builds in behind departing low. with
clearing and light winds temperatures will drop into the 40s.

Return flow/warm advection sets up mainly from valley west and
with solar temperatures should recover back up close to average.
coolest temperatures will be over the far ne last to see above.

Next digging short wave will bring rain chances back to the
region Thursday night.

Friday to Monday night...Period to start with a short wave that
models have been consistent with, bringing a round of convection to
the area for the first half of the weekend. CHC POPS Friday into
Saturday with eastern areas more likely to see PCPN. Temps for the
period near normal with highs in mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

All TAF sites are VCTS or -RA as showers and thunderstorms
continue to lift northeastward across the area. Lightning has
started to diminish and mostly should be VCSH or -RA by the early
morning hours. Some showers may wrap back around into the KDVL
area late in the period. Cigs on the backside of the low pressure
system are mostly VFR but a few sites in western ND have some
clouds around 2500-3500 ft. Will keep some MVFR cigs going for the
early morning hours and will leave out IFR for now but watch
things closely. All sites should be back up to VFR by afternoon.
Winds will be variable near thunderstorms for the next few hours,
then steady out of the south to southeast. KDVL should see some
northwest winds late in the period as the sfc low pulls eastward.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...JR


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