Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Fcst issue today the ending of the shower threat and timing of
clearing late today and tonight across the area. 500 mb low in
north central Ontario north of Lake Superior. One short wave
rotating south around the low is moving thru the Lake of the Woods
region at 08z and is producing an area of light rain in NW/NC
Minnesota. Another short wave farther west is moving thru western
Manitoba and into the Devils Lake basin at 08z. An area of showers
is with this moving quickly south-southeast. This looks to be the
last short wave to impact the Devils Lake basin so thinking is far
western fcst area to be dry after 12z today. Will maintain some
low pops into the RRV thru midday and then all day have high chc
or likely pops in NW Minnesota, especially BJI/BDE areas. Western
edge of the main cloud cover Devils Lake-Valley City region and
also some clearing over west central Manitoba in the Flin Flon
area. Overall...drier air will work south and east with clearing
thru the day in the DVL basin and reaching the northern RRV late
aftn. Enough sun to boost temps into the low or mid 60s this
region. Clearing working east tonight. Overnight will see light
winds and cool temps with lows upper 30s to low 40s. But center of
high over Sioux Falls area so not a perfect radiational cooling
night and no frost anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Wednesday will see a lot of sunshine and temperatures will rebound
quicky to normal levels with most areas low to mid 70s. Thursday
looks dry and warm as winds turn south as an upper ridge builds
over our area, however brief. But enough warmth to send temps well
into the 70s and low 80s.

Friday through Monday...There is poor model consensus on how the
next upper trough comes into the area for the weekend, although
general agreement on a wetter trend. The ECMWF brings a shortwave
through fairly quickly Friday and Saturday and phases it with an
upper low over Ontario, while the GFS is slower and brings the main
upper low from Canada and lingers it into Sunday. Ensemble means are
of course somewhere in the middle with some weak troughing over the
Northern Plains Saturday. Bumped up POPs in our south a bit on
Friday afternoon and night as surface low pressure moves through
South Dakota, but otherwise will leave the blended solution with the
mainly chance POPs it gives us over the weekend. As for
temperatures, after a very warm Friday thanks to upper ridging we
should see a return to more average or slightly below readings for
the weekend and early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

MVFR/VFR cigs fluctuating back and forth tonight with expectation
that MVFR will be most predominant CIG group by midnight and
through the remainder of the night. Low confidence we will see IFR
but some localized areas of IFR are possible around the area,
especially north. Not enough confidence to mention IFR at TAF




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