Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 261144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
644 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The upper level system effecting the CWA early this morning will
slowly move north-northeast, reaching the WI border late this
afternoon, around 21z. Scattered areas of light rain will continue
across the area and should come to an end by this evening. Dry
weather is then expected tonight, however, it will be brief as
another weather system will move into the area and bring showers to
the area after 09z tonight. Could be some thunder mixed in with the
showers, but appears parameters best support thunder on Monday. So
will leave out thunder for tonight.

With all the clouds and light precip expected today, temps will
increase only slightly, but be in the 60-65 degree range. Overnight
lows will be influenced by the same cloud cover, but with the
weather system pulling out to the north, slight cooler air will
advect into the area, resulting in lows in the mid to upper 40s for

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The break in the precip overnight tonight will end quickly Monday
morning as another weak wave moves into the region.  An open wave
aloft, showers and thunderstorms will move in...mainly in a warm air
advection scheme...and much of the southern half of the state is in
a marginal/slight risk as the storms tap into mid afternoon air.
Ample lapse rates to support the potential for some isolated severe
storms, but much of the threat will rely heavily on the timing and
the coverage of the shower activity early. The track of the low in
both the ECMWF and the GFS is similar...and the NAM has fallen in
step with the qpf as well. Precip likely to come to an end in the
overnight hours.

A brief break in the precip for Tues and Wed as upper level ridging
keeps the region dry.  Easterly winds through both days results in a
rather neutral temp influence and max temps run very close to
climatological norms/degree or two above.  Dry run ends overnight
Wed into Thursday morning...and through Friday the next
deep low moves out of the desert SW and into the Midwest. However,
divergence in the ECMWF and GFS solutions after 90 hrs, leaves low
confidence in the details for the end of the week and going into the
weekend. Temperatures throughout the forecast are running a few
degrees above normal and well within end of March expectations.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

MVFR cigs with light showers/drizzle will continue at all sites
this morning. Could be some more predominate showers/rain at some
of the TAF sites, but do not think it will reduce vis or cig
heights when/if it occurs. Therefore, just going with VCSH at all
sites for this morning. As the weather system lifts northeast
precip will end from southwest to northeast. Cigs will increase,
but still remain MVFR in the afternoon since sites will remain
influenced by cyclonic flow. At SPI and DEC, cigs could rise to
VFR but am very skeptical so will leave MVFR going. PIA/BMI/CMI
will actually see cigs drop overnight again to lower MVFR, so
have added that in the TAFs this forecast. Winds will remain
southwest through most of the period, but become somewhat westerly
late tonight. Since late, did not include in any forecast at this




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