Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 292137
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
237 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A large ridge of high pressure will provide dry and
increasingly warmer temperatures to the Great Basin for Memorial
Day into Tuesday. A Pacific trough will bring increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms to Nevada by midweek. Snowmelt
runoff from the mountains will keep the flows of many streams high
and swift during the week ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Upper level ridge continues across Nevada today but it will break
down this coming Tuesday as a short wave moves into the region. Low
level RH is quite low, but overall PW`s approach 0.4" by Tuesday
with potential for high based dry thunderstorms, especially in the
far west of Humboldt and northwest Nye Counties, and in the
highlands of eastern White Pine County. Limited instability but
sufficient for high bases, especially with borderline jet streak
from the south approaching western Nevada Tuesday. On Wednesday
more moisture will move into the area increasing the PW values
into the 0.6" and lowering the base of convection to 600mb which
should increase the amount of rain that will reach the surface.
This should increase the amount The hottest day of the week will
be on Tuesday before cooler air moves into the region by
Wednesday. High on Tuesday will be in the 80s to 90s dropping
into the 70s to 80s on Wednesday with lows in the 40s to 50s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday. Trough energy
passing through the region Wednesday night through Thursday
evening will result in increasing clouds and a chance for some
showers and thunderstorms. Dry Friday and Saturday with warmer
afternoons ahead of the next weak system which is expected to
bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms to northeastern NV
on Sunday. Temperatures cool next Monday as a low pressure centers
just north of NV.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions through Tuesday evening at all
terminals. High pressure currently over the region will begin to
be pushed off to the east as trough energy moves in from the
west. The result will be increasing clouds on Tuesday. Storms will
return later in the week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Expect much warmer temperatures this Memorial Day
and Tuesday cooling on Wednesday. All streams that flow out of
mountainous areas should see significant rises due to snowmelt
runoff over the next few days.

The lower Humboldt River from Comus downstream through Winnemucca
to the Humboldt/Pershing County border will experience minor
flooding through Wednesday. A Flood Warning remains in effect.


The Jarbidge River has dropped below action stage. However, river
levels are expected to rise again and fluctuate in response to
warmer temperatures and increased snowmelt runoff.

Lamoille Creek is below minor flood stage, but could rise again
to flood stage this Memorial Day or Tuesday as snowmelt
increases of the Ruby Mountains.


The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is below flood stage and
is expected to remain in action stage through at least the middle
of this week.

The Bruneau River is below action stage. However, warmer
temperatures and snowmelt are expected to push the river back into
action stage.

Marys River remains in action stage and is currently falling but
increased snowmelt may reverse that trend.

Wildhorse Reservoir is still above the spillway. There is no
threat for flooding at this time downstream along the Owyhee
River.



&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/96/96


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