Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 292144
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
244 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
EASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL NV...BUT POPS ARE EXPECTED TO LOW WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NV, WITH POPS IN THE 15-30
PCT RANGE. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH, OVER NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WITH REGARDS
TO THE SECOND SHORT WAVE THU/FRI WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS MOVING
THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NV FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTH. THE ECMWF MODEL HOWEVER DROPS THIS
FEATURE SOUTHWARD INTO CA AS A CLOSED LOW THU/FRI KEEPING MOISTURE
MAINLY CONFINED TO WESTERN NV. INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN LINE WITH
THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THAT AS
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NV TIL 03Z, WITH A 10-15 PCT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING THE KELY TERMINAL. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT KTPH AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS
TERMINAL. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY TAF TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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