Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 251037
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
237 AM PST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warm weather will continue through the weekend with
very little in the way of precipitation. A low pressure system
will bring rain changing to snow for most of Nevada Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. High pressure maintains
control over Nevada weather and there is none this morning. The
axis of our protective high pressure system is aligned directly
through the center part of the state and the ridge crest is dirty.
Clouds continue to spread harmlessly across northern Nevada with
no precipitation showing on KLRX radar. Temperatures are once
again settling out in the 30s widespread and dewpoints at stations
south of U.S. 50 are sporadically in the single digits, very dry.
The models are in pretty good agreement on a dry forecast from now
through most of Sunday. Remarkably warm temperatures will continue
through the weekend. Then a storm system will move through Sunday
night and Monday.

Today through Sunday. Dry conditions are expected for the most
part. There could be slight chance for rain over far western
Humboldt County late Sunday as a storm system approaches. Pacific
high pressure will become progressive and drift across the Baja
Peninsula, eventually releasing its hold on the Silver State. The
ridge axis will pass east of the LKN CWFA today and a southwest
flow aloft will return. The main issue will be the winds possibly
touching advisory criteria on some of the highway overpasses on
Sunday. A low pressure trough is shown by the models to position
about 400 miles off the northern California coast by late Sunday
and southwest winds will be strengthening across much of Nevada.
This is about 100 miles further west than previously noted. The
models show a weakening central low pressure at this juncture and
a slower approach than model runs of 24 hours ago. It appears
that the trough will not see too much more southerly movement than
depicted by the current model run due to the balanced jet
features. Late Sunday afternoon, the 140kt jet core on the east
side of the upper trough will dominate as it approaches the
northern portion of the Sierra-Nevada mountain range, so winds
shouldn`t by excessively strong across the LKN CWFA. Again this is
slower than previous model runs so any significant valley winds
may engage later in the day Sunday. Depending on the cloud cover
and the strength of the southwest flow, temperatures may revisit
the 70 degree mark in a few spots. High temperatures will range
from the 60s to around 70 degrees. Low temperatures will range
from the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Sunday night through Monday. A quick-moving low pressure trough
will pass through the LKN CWFA. Snow levels will be starting out
around 8000 feet as the precipitaion begins to spread across the
state west to east. Cold air will lag precipitation to begin
with. Frontal passage estimate: Winnemucca 1 am PST, Battle
Mountain 4 am PST, Elko 7 am PST. Valley snow accumulation will be
minimal although a transition from rain to snow will occur as the
front moves through. Highway overpasses along Interstate 80 bear
watching during the day however highway temperatures should
prevent slushiness for the most part in other areas. The biggest
beneficiary will be the mountains of Elko County, which could
receive a half-foot of snow. Low temperatures will generally be
in the 30s. High temperatures will generally be in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday.

Rain and snow will be confined to mainly southeastern Nevada
Monday through late evening and then the system is expected to
speed off to the east overnight.

A quick transition ridge moves through on Tuesday and then a
little clipper grazes northeast Nevada on Wednesday which
appears to just bring some clouds, a little bit of cooling in the
north, and a low chance for a snow shower in extreme northeast
Nevada.

Very little forecast confidence beyond Wednesday. Global models
do agree on forming a cut-off low off of the Southern California
coast. The GFS opens it up and quickly moves it northeast into
Utah. This would bring precipitation to mainly central Nevada
Thursday and Thursday night on its way into Utah and with its
southern origin would be a warmer system. The EC, however, keeps
the cut off low hanging out well off of the Southern California
coast until its moisture merges with a system from the north next
weekend. Continued with low pops for the end of the extended until
models resolve their differences a bit. Looks like chances do
exist for a system next weekend, however.

Temperatures will be near normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through Saturday evening all
terminals.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

92/90/90



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