Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 232152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
252 PM PDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure exiting east of the state will leave
behind a few showers across far eastern Nevada through Sunday.
Leftover moist conditions may lead to more fog Sunday morning as
well. Otherwise, improving conditions are expected in the upcoming
week with chilly overnight lows and warming daytime temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. Areas of freezing fog across
much of northern and central NV this morning burned off between
10am and 11am. Finally at 1 pm started seeing some de-stabilization
across southeast Nevada, mostly south of White Pine County, and
no lightning as yet. Temperatures have rebounded into the 50s
across northern Nevada and will likely get close to 50 degrees in
some spots in central Nevada. Short term models are in agreement
however the initialization seems too far north. The low
circulation can be clearly seen spinning between Rachel and
Caliente Nevada, about 50 miles further south and a few miles west
of the proposed track by this time. This may delay a clean exit
of the system affecting the state and cause some showers to linger
along the NV/UT border through Sunday. After today though, it
doesn`t appear that convection will be a concern...just a few
lingering showers. There will be a warming trend during the day
however with the continued northerly flow aloft on the backside of
the low will allow for cool air to settle over the area at night.
So below freezing temperatures are expected tonight and again
Sunday night. High temperatures will rise through the 50s Sunday
to around 60 degrees by Monday. Low temperatures will fall into
the 20s.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Saturday

The trof that has brought us a taste of winter will have moved
northeast of the region by the start of the long term, allowing
upper ridging to build into the Pacific Northwest. This will keep
Nevada in a northerly flow through at least Tuesday. Models are
then developing a weak upper low in the Tri State area, which cuts
off from the main flow and meanders in the vicinity of the four
corners region through Thursday night before it washes out as the
upper high continues to build into the western conus. The EC is a
little further north with the low center than the GFS, which could
bring a shower to White Pine county on Wednesday. Confidence is
too low to include anything but low pops in the grids, however. In
general, though, the cut-off low is not expected to bring any
precipitation to our area as the moisture that gets pulled up
should stay in the 4 corners region. By Saturday, the ridge is
expected to flatten due to activity in Canada, which should place
our area in more of a zonal flow.

Temperatures will be below normal, but with some warming every
day, seasonal Fall temperatures will be in place by the middle to
end of the week.


.AVIATION...An isolated shower will be possible at KEKO this
aftn. VCTS is possible for KELY, with a chance for a rain or snow
shower temporarily bringing MVFR CIGS and VIS. All other TAF
sites will be dry with a northerly wind and scattered deck around

Fog for KEKO and KELY expected to be less widespread overnight
and into Sunday morning and not as dense and therefore set TAF`s
to MVFR CIGS and VIS for these sites. There is an off chance that
they will lower back down to VLIFR and conditions will be
carefully monitored.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers will linger across Fire Zones 455
and 470 through Sunday and there may be a lightning strike or two
this afternoon across these same areas, more towards White Pine
County. Below-freezing nights should be expected in most areas
through early next week with a warming trend during the day.




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