Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 270912
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
212 AM PDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry with well above normal temperatures again on
Thursday. A Pacific storm system will spread showers across the
area late Thursday through Friday. Thunderstorms and gusty winds
will be present with the system during the afternoon hours on
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. A mild southwest flow ahead
of incoming Pacific storm system will bring another mild day to
the region with highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Incoming
storm will begin to spread showers into western Humboldt county
late Thursday afternoon reaching the Utah border late Thursday
night or early Friday.
Friday. Widespread showers across the area as the storm system
moves through. The storm system will be very moist with heavy
rain possible so localized flooding may be possible depending on
the terrain and accumulation rates. The chance for higher rain
accumulation increases to the north and west. The storm system is
also favorable for thunderstorms formation during the afternoon
hours. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be a swath from
central to the northeastern corner of the state. Isolated stronger
storms may also be possible with this system due to the strong
vorticity. The airmass is fairly warm with high snow levels so
accumulation will only be possible on the highest peaks however
the accumulation may be several inches. Gusty southwesterly winds
will be present during the afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Thursday.
The models start off in good agreement
with a closed low off the northwest coast throwing waves into the
interior west through Monday. Ample moisture and occasional
instability sufficient to produce thunder over northern Nevada at
times. Widespread precip, mostly rain each period through Tuesday,
albeit the areal coverage pulls north out of central Nevada by
Sunday before returning Monday. Colder air moves in over the
weekend and mountain snows result, though accumulations will be
light in most area, except the highest ranges. Monday evening
roughly, the models begin to vary widely and there is little
confidence in the forecast therefore it`s more of a general
outlook beyond Monday night. Central and eastern Nevada will be
subject to breezy to windy conditions afternoons Saturday through
Monday then the gradient appears to wane. Highs generally 40s and
50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. It would be colder but for the
general cloud cover.
.AVIATION...General increase in middle to high clouds over all
taf sites through the period in advance of a storm system
offshore. Winds increase in the afternoon, especially at KELY.
.FIRE WEATHER...Another dry and mild day in store for the area
Thursday before a Pacific storm begins to spread showers across
the region beginning late Thursday and continuing through Friday.
Wetting thunderstorms are possible friday. There will be gusty
afternoon winds for friday and saturday but the speeds and RH
remain well below critical threshold value.