Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 252206
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
306 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled conditions will prevail through the Memorial
Day Weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
each day, mostly during the afternoon hours. A slow warming trend
is expected for the next several days.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.
Mid level weak circulation over southwest Idaho is the primary
trigger for convective showers over the region today. Larger
closed low over southern California maintains trough axis over
Nevada. The air mass remains moist, not much forcing was needed to
get showers going. Shear is weak, but still managing to get some
brief robust showers with small hail. About 3 "Cold air funnels"
or small "rope" clouds have been spotted around the Elko area
today. Showers will continue into the early evening, but expect
gradual decrease to the activity with the loss of surface heating.
Weak circulation over southwest Idaho gets absorbed by the bigger
SoCal closed low that moves to the Four Corners region by Thursday
afternoon. Shear axis still exists over eastern Nv and expect
diurnally driven storms to reform. Showers/storms become less
numerous farther west, becoming non existant northwest of
Friday, next progressive trough moves acorss the northern
Intermountain region, barely brushing far northern Nv. A few hit
and miss afternoon showers/storms will pop as result, favoring the
.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday.
Persistent upper trough with showers and cool temperatures over
the western states may finally change to a more summerlike pattern
Friday night through Sunday the mean trough will continue with
a reinforcement from the north. On Sunday the trough will be
further enhanced by a short wave trough from the Pacific. Sunday
will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms of the long
term period, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Monday looks drier and slightly warmer. On Tuesday ridging will
begin in the western states with the trough shifting to the central
states. Warmer and drier weather is expected at that time.
.AVIATION...Generally VFR through Thursday but numerous showers and
thunderstorms will cause local MVFR conditions and mountain
obscuration this afternoon and evening. Showers will continue in
eastern-most areas overnight and Thursday morning but elsewhere
improvement is expected from west to east. Scattered to broken
clouds based near 12KFT MSL will continue into Monday. Surface
winds generally from the west 5 to 15 kts. At 9000 feet MSL
northwest winds 10-15 kts.