Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 240918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
218 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will affect the state today through
Saturday bringing mainly valley rain and mountain snow. A lull in
the weather pattern is expected late Saturday night through early
Sunday however another system will begin moving into the Great
Basin by late Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Cooler air has spread to much
of the Great Basin this morning and most sites have dipped into
the 30s with some spots already getting into the 20s. Not seeing
any fog development at this time. Although a positive-tilt ridge
axis is just east of Elko, there are some clouds moving into
western Nevada making the ridge a little dirty. Ir imagery shows a
deep upper low winding up off the Canadian and northern
Washington coast, trailing a long line of moisture across
California and Nevada which is where our clouds are emanating from
this morning. Seeing very good agreement with the models on the
latest runs. There will be a trough moving through the LKN CWFA
early in the weekend, with another break between systems on

This morning. Not seeing too much saturation at this time and
there is an upper wave of clouds indicating a weak short wave
axis brushing northern Nevada, so will reduce the fog potential to
patchy coverage in the morning forecast package. The trough axis
extending from the upper low off the northwest CONUS coast will
approach the coastline and the river of moist flow will shift
south, delaying the onset of precipitation to the Great Basin. By
late morning, showers could begin over western and northern
Humboldt County.

This afternoon through Saturday evening. A trough axis will slowly
move through the Great Basin and the moist flow will continue to
shift south. For much of the time, moisture will be scavenged by
the Sierras. The main impacts with this storm will be over
central Nevada. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the
Ruby Mountains and White Pine County above 7000 feet. There will
be some accumulation below that level however surface temperatures
will minimize the hazard. High temperatures will range from the
50s to around 60 degrees. Low temperatures will generally be in
the 30s.

Midnight Saturday through Sunday morning. This should be a dry
period. The trough is expected to make a clean exit, replaced by a
short wave albeit low-amplitude ridge. Low temperatures will
generally be in the 20s.

Sunday afternoon. The next storm system will begin to affect the
northwest Nevada. A trough axis extending from an upper level low
off the coast of Canada will begin to move into Californian.
Showers will spread across Humboldt County and begin to affect the
higher terrain east of Humboldt County by late afternoon. High
temperatures will generally be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday.
The next trough will continue to dig across the Great Basin
region Sunday night into Monday. This will bring a mix of higher
elevation snow, valley rain and/or mix for the entire CWA Sunday
night through Monday and possible thunderstorms primarily across
northwest Nevada on Monday as a cold front progresses
southeastward across the state. The incipient trough progresses
southeastward across Nevada and pushing into southern
Utah/Northern Arizona by Monday night/early Tuesday.

Models remain in fairly good agreement on the track which places
northern Nevada under a deformation zone Monday night. Dynamics
should be in place for a prolonged higher elevation snow and
steady valley rain/mix event. Models continue to differ in
accumulated precipitation values for this event, however, appears
advisory level snow amounts are likely above 6500 feet with 6 to
12 inches in the Rubies, higher terrain of northern Elko county
with slightly lesser amounts across the Humboldt-Toiyabe National
Forest areas of northern Nye and southern Lander and Eureka
counties. One quarter to 0.40 inches of liquid precip is expected
in valley locations through the event.

A short ridging pattern with dry conditions pushes through the
region by late Tuesday morning, continuing into Wednesday before
another trough descends from the Pacific Northwest into the state
bringing another round of valley rain and mountain snow Thursday.

High temperatures will generally be in the 40s and 50s in the
valleys with lows Monday morning in the mid 30s dropping to the
mid to upper 20s to low 30s by Monday night lasting through the
middle of next week.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions with high clouds moving into the region
this morning ahead of an approaching storm system. Valley rain and
mountain snow showers expected to be near KWMC this afternoon and
then at KEKO, KELY and KTPH overnight. Lower CIGs and VIS expected
with heavier showers and mountain obscurations likely. Breezy
southerly winds also expected at all terminals this afternoon with
gusts near 25KTS.


.HYDROLOGY...Another moist storm system will bring another round
of valley rain and mountain snow over the weekend. The rainfall
could exacerbate flooding issues and there will be a couple more
storms between now and next week with the strongest system timed
for the period between Sunday night and Monday night. Rivers and
creeks will likely continue to run strong with the additional

Flood warnings are in effect for the following areas:

Bruneau River: Moderate flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Palisade: Minor flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Moderate flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Comus: Moderate flooding continues.

Marys River: Moderate flooding is occurring.

All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.
River Statements have been issued for the following areas:

Salmon Falls Creek near Jackpot, Martin Creek near Paradise Valley
and the Humboldt River near Carlin.


Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday
for Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-White Pine County.



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