Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 242042
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  82  59  88  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  84  61  89  /  20  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  85  51  90  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  64  88  66  93  /  20  30  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  85  60  91  /  20  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  71  56  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  81  54  86  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  76  45  82  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  84  60  89  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  56  84  61  89  /  10  20  10   0
WINK TX                    57  85  57  92  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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