Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds
anticipated at times. Sfc flow will veer to SW and become gusty
this morning, and continue into the evening hours. Convective
temps will be too high for any appreciable cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues today and into
next week as an active weather pattern resides over the region. A
strong jet crossing the Rockies today will induce and area of low
pressure at the surface in NE NM. Strong mid level winds along
with a tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing
westerly winds through the day today. The strongest winds are
expected across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains this
afternoon. Will upgrade to a High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory for
the affected locations. Have also added blowing dust where winds
will be strongest this afternoon. A downslope component to the
winds will also send temperatures soaring well above normal today.
High will likely be about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. The
above conditions will lead to extreme fire weather conditions
across SE NM and the higher terrain of W TX. Please see the Fire
WX discussion below.

A weak cold front will approach if not move into the northern
Permian Basin tonight and Friday morning. This front will quickly
lift north/wash out in response to a deepening upper trough over the
Four Corners. Expect another hot, dry, and windy day Friday before
we see major changes this weekend. As the trough inches toward the
area, a Pacific cold front will push across early Saturday morning.
While we could see a few showers or storms along the front, QPF
amounts look to be light. One thing you will notice is the cooler
temperatures Saturday afternoon as highs cool about 20 degrees from
what we will see Friday. Winds will also be on the increase as the
upper system further deepens over the TX Panhandle Saturday
afternoon. An even stronger front will arrive Saturday evening
bringing much colder temperatures and high winds to the region.
Temperatures will fall sharply behind the front with lows likely
falling into the 30`s and 40`s by Sunday morning across much of the
area. It is looking likely we will see a late season freeze
across northern Lea county and possibly further south.
Temperatures will only rebound into the 60`s Sunday afternoon.

NW mid level flow behind this storm system will bring warmer conditions
early next week. Expect temperatures to rebound back above normal
by Tuesday. Another cold front is slated to arrive sometime midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW
flow aloft on the backside of a trough ejecting into the Great Lakes
Region.  Subsidence/Mixing today will result in another day of
earth, wind & fire for the region.  Although return flow has resumed
after yesterday`s front, and as a consequence RH recovery improving,
mixing later on will veer 20` winds around to the W, and downslope
warming will ramp temps back to well-abv normal, yielding critical
RH area wide during the afternoon.  The entire forecast area is in
at least High Fire Danger (FD), and practically everything from the
Davis/Apache Mtns northward is in extreme FD.  ERCs for the Trans
Pecos remain at normal, and near-normal for the Southern Plains.
Extreme RFTI extends along the Pecos Rvr Valley from north of
Roswell down to Girvin, so we have added Loving, Winkler, and Ward
Counties to the RFW.  The only place west of the NM/TX border not in
the RFW will be the Presidio Valley, which looks to have 20` winds
under criteria.  Everything east of the NM/TX border, as mentioned
yesterday, is still to greened up for a warning.

Critical fire wx conditions will be possible again Friday and
Saturday, mainly on the plains surrounding the Guadalupes.  However,
current products are already getting quite lengthy as zones are
parsed out, so to avoid confusion, we`ll forego issuing a
watch and emphasize more critical fire wx possible in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  62  91  63 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                       91  63  87  59 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         93  64  96  67 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  94  65  94  63 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 82  60  80  52 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  57  85  54 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          88  57  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  64  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                         92  64  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                           94  64  92  60 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44



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