Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181718
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR the first 12 hours of the TAF period, then IFR/LIFR conditions
north of the area will move in behind a cold front due to arrive
06-12Z. There is the potential for dense fog to develop but an
upper trough will bring scattered showers that could keep the
lower levels mixed enough to prevent this from occurring;
therefore, stayed on the higher end of LIFR conditions for now. No
significant improvement is expected before the end of the TAF.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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