Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310200
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
900 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Please see the evening forecast update below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection down across the lower Trans Pecos has diminished with
loss of sensible heating. It`s possible, however, that one or two
more cells might pop up along an outflow boundary extending from
the Big Bend east across the Edwards Plateau. As a result, we`ve
maintained low order PoPs across the lower Trans Pecos through
06Z. Elsewhere PoPs have been lowered and sensible weather has
been removed.

The ongoing forecast looks pretty good overall and only minor
additional tweaks were made. Did tweak Td grids to reflect a trend
from current observations, with secondary and tertiary grids
modified as a result. Sky grids look really good and T trends
likewise look fine.

Incoming guidance and model data continue to portray a warmup
Sunday and Labor Day. It`s possible that many areas south of I-20
and away from the mountains will see temperatures reach or exceed
the century mark Monday. Isolated diurnal thunderstorms remain in
the forecast through Labor Day as well; however, surface Tds will
need to increase a bit to match the increase in midlevel lapse
rates for us to increase PoPs more than are currently forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/70

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