Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 060953
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
453 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SECOND LOW WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LAST NIGHT...REMAINING
VERY THIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING
EXPECTING A REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING. QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL BE AS WARM AS MOS WHICH IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OPAQUE WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL INSOLATION. ATTM HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO MAV MOS...BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH PER POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS TO BE THINNER THAN FORECAST.

WEATHER MAP SHOWS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. THE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...THUS RESULTING IN A
SWIRL OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST VCNTY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...THEN
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE COLUMBIA SC
TO RALEIGH DURHAM CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM. IN THE EVENT THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR CWA...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTERTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID... THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL LIKELY SEE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS...THICKENING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT TEMPERATURE...KEEPING US UNDER
GUIDANCE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING US ABOVE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY MORNING...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ROTATES EASTWARD MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS KICKED TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
NORTHEAST OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE RICHER MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
30SALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY EAST ON
MONDAY WITH A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL AREAS TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM A COATING IN THE EAST TO AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC DAY 3 SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. WILL THE THE MENTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE HWO. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...

SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH
EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG
FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY
PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME.

COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 150 THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC AND LIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY CALM AT
NIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IF ANY
TENDENCY IN THE DIRECTION CAN BE ASCERTAINED...IT WOULD BE TOWARD
THE SW-WSW.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...A
STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING.
THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SUB-VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN KICKS IN. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST
WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO
AREAS FURTHER EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AT TIMES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/RAB


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