Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 271641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1141 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST THURSDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BANDS OF -SN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAKING FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDING AREAS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG. MOSTLY -RA CAN
BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CIGS WILL BE MORE VFR TO
OCNL MVFR INTO MID MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST
GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/NF/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS


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