Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 010127
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW
AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING
IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND
WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG
UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR
SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER
THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE
PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK
OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT
SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS
ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE
FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE
HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS
SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE
CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND DEEP MIXING SUBSIDES GIVEN
LOSS OF HEATING. MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS REALLY DROP OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
VFR CIGS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND
KBLF OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.


EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NW AND DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG
WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY
WILL AGAIN BE LOW...BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...JH/NF/WP


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