Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 230613
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNEVENTFUL CFROPA OCCURRING ATTM AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OUT AHEAD
ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROF...AND LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST
ABOUT DONE. AM LIKING THE LOCAL WRF SOLUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
WHICH PUSHES SOME LOW LEVEL RH SWD INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHOWER FAR NW
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE BELOW CHC POPS SO WILL STAY WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS JUST BELOW
CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY AROUND 40
KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN MIXING WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ASIDE
FOR SOME SCT MID CLOUD...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 22-28KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&


.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM



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