Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 261120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Weak high pressure will continue to build into the area from the
north today before sliding offshore Sunday night. This should
result in somewhat drier weather through the remainder of the
weekend. Another cold front will approach from the west on Monday
with additional showers and storms likely into Monday night.


As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

The surface front has moved south into Georgia with weak high
pressure wedged into the area. Soundings have somewhat of a
saturated airmass below 10 kft with east winds below 3kft. This
easterly flow will bring in additional moisture for low clouds to
spread west across the area through mid morning. Drier air will
work its way in from the northeast through the day, eliminating
most of the clouds. With mostly clear skies in the afternoon, high
temperatures will warm into the lower 80s, upper 70s along higher
elevations. These temperatures are 3F-5F cooler than normal. Even
though PWATs are relativity low for this time of year and the
environment is stable, can not rule out a stray showers across the
Mountain Empire and North Carolina High Country late this
afternoon. These showers will fade with sunset. A cold front will
enter the Ohio Valley early Monday morning and start spreading
clouds over the region. Models are trending slower with the
arrival of showers overnight. Therefore lowered PoPs to slight
chance along western slopes towards dawn Monday.


As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Upper trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes and rotate
eastward to New England by Wednesday. This will propel a cold
front east across our region Monday into Monday night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will form ahead and along the front. The
Day Two convective outlook places a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms for main threat wind. A narrow band of deeper
moisture with progged pwats around 2 inches pivots around the
region from Monday afternoon into Monday night. Rather slow
steering aloft would suggest another round of slow moving storms
with qpf of 0.50 to more than an inch across the region which is
of concern over/near areas that received flooding last week. Will
continue mention of the potential of thunderstorms with heavy
rains and gusty winds in HWO. High temperatures Monday will range
from the mid 70s in the mountains to the upper 80s in the
piedmont. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday evening will
taper off from west to east behind the front Monday night. Low
temperatures Monday night will vary from the lower 60s in the west
to the upper 60s in the east. Secondary cold front will move
across the region Tuesday under the leading edge of initial
digging shortwave energy that will represent the arrival of cooler
and drier air for Tuesday night. Kept the mention of thunderstorms
in east. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will reach the upper
70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the piedmont. Isolated
showers are possible Tuesday night mainly in the east. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will drop into the mid 50s in the west
to the mid 60s in the east.


As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Broad upper trough will re-establish over the region by midweek
and persist into next weekend as added impulses rotate through
bringing periodic rounds of showers/storms after midweek drying.

Pocket of cool advection progged at 850 mb to continue into
Wednesday on drier northwest flow and better subsidence making for
a couple of cooler overnights and a mainly dry Wednesday. More
uncertainty in regards to rain chances will develop Thursday-
Saturday as moisture returns and added impulses swing toward the
region around the residual upper system to the north. Latest
models have backed off on much organized convection with more in
the way of mostly diurnal showers/storms each day. This supports
the return of mostly low chance pops with the region still under
weak high pressure between the initial boundary to the south, and
another front swinging in from the north by day7. Temperatures to
remain near seasonal overall except slightly below midweek with
some comfortable overnights as well given lows 50s to near 60.


As of 720 AM EDT Sunday...

High pressure will remain anchored along the Mid-Atlantic
seaboard through this evening, gradually drifting offshore Monday
morning. Low level flow will primarily remain easterly today,
shifting to the south overnight as a cold front approaches from
the west.

Morning low clouds and patchy fog will lift quickly this morning
with all sites becoming VFR by 14Z/10AM. Fair weather cumulus
clouds will develop over the mountains in the afternoon with a
few stray showers towards the NC/TN and TN/VA border. Clouds will
fade at sunset. After midnight mid deck will increase as a cold
front approaches from the west. Rain is not expected to move over
the mountains until later in the day Monday.

Extended discussion...
The next cold front will move into the region Monday, then move
slowly through the area Monday night. Widespread showers/storms
should exit Monday night giving way to more isolated coverage
including periods of MVFR Tuesday with a passing secondary cold
front. Expect a return to more widespread VFR behind the front on




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