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000
FXUS61 KRNK 181306
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
906 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry day is expected today with northwesterly winds. A much
stronger front will cross our area Friday bringing some showers
and storms, then cooler weather arrives for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Dry, warm, and breezy.

Modest adjustment made to the early morning forecast package,
mainly for dewpoint temperatures heading through this afternoon
as drier air arrives into our region. Downslope northwesterly
winds and abundant sunshine will make for an unseasonably warm
day for mid-April as afternoon highs climb into the mid/upper
70s for the mountains and low/mid 80s for the Piedmont.
Dewpoints will fall into the mid 30s to the low 40s by this
afternoon, which will push relative humidities into the 20 to 25
percent range for most locations.

Winds quickly diminish around sunset and are forecast to be
nearly calm overnight. Increasing clouds after midnight will
help hold low temperatures generally in the 50s, though a few of
the more sheltered locations could dip into the 40s where clouds
move in later in the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...


Key Messages:

1: Showers and storms Friday

2: A few showers possible in northern NC Saturday

Low pressure and a cold front will transit the OH Valley and then
stall near the Carolinas on Friday. On Friday this will result in
showers beginning in the late morning, with some thunderstorms
possible through the late afternoon. This front will settle just
south of our area in the Carolinas, and a slowly approaching
gradient of higher pressure will dry out any precip by Friday night.
On Saturday, most of the area will be free of rain with the
exception of isolated showers in northern NC Saturday afternoon. The
continued increase in surface pressure from the west will suppress
rain potential further north of the front in VA and WV.

Temperatures will cool a bit with the front and more showers. Expect
temps in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Rain chances Sunday and Wednesday

2: Cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday, rebounding
on Tuesday

Behind a cold front that moves offshore Saturday night, cooler
than normal temperatures can be expected Sunday and Monday.

A disturbance in eastern Texas will track across the Deep South
Saturday, then move off the Carolina Coast Sunday night. The
northern edge of the rain shield is expected to reach the
Highway 460 corridor Sunday afternoon, then exit the Piedmont
around midnight, ushered out quickly by a fast moving area of
weak high pressure. Surface high pressure over the region
Monday and Tuesday will allow temperatures to return to near
normal levels and provide for calm weather. Showers reenter the
area Wednesday as another cold front tracks over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Some MVFR cloudiness this morning across the mountains as a
passage of a decaying front moves through. MVFR will linger
for perhaps an hour or two, but then should see widespread VFR
for the remainder of the TAF period as skies become clear.

Winds will be on the increase today, gusty from the northwest.
Could see some gusts to 20kt to perhaps 25kts in the mountains.
Winds quickly diminish by sunset and will be light/calm
tonight.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions are expected into early Friday. However, a cold
front will cross the area by late Friday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible. The cold front will exit eastward by
Saturday, but some MVFR ceilings may linger in the mountains
through the morning. North winds will provide some clearing for
late Saturday, but more moisture may surge northeastward during
Sunday and Monday to bring another chance of rain.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/NF
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...RCS/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG