Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 AM MST Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and near normal temperatures will return
to northern Arizona today. A low pressure system will move into
the area Monday into Tuesday. A second low is expected to cross
the state late in the week and into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Weak ridging will be the main weather feature across
northern Arizona today bringing a return to sunny skies and near
normal temperatures. However, this will be short-lived as another
low pressure system drops southeast into the area Monday into
Tuesday. Model guidance continues to indicate snow levels will
fall rapidly to 6500-7000 feet as 700 mb temperatures cool to
around -4 to -6 C Monday night and Tuesday. This system will be a
quick mover, but will need to be watched for a quick burst of
accumulating snow above 7000 feet as it departs.

The progressive pattern continues into the latter half of the week
with another transient ridge bringing a brief period of dry
weather Wednesday into early Thursday. This again will be short-
lived as another storm system moves into northern Arizona from the
northwest. While confidence remains low on the details, guidance
suggest this system will have good jet support/upper level
dynamics and significant CAA as it moves into the area. This
timeframe will continue to be monitored for potentially impactful
weather in northern Arizona.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions through the
next 24 hour period, with generally light surface winds and periods
of mid and upper level cloud. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.






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