Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 172123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
223 PM MST Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and dry conditions again today with
just higher level clouds across northern Arizona. For Wednesday
and Thursday a weak weather disturbance will combine with
increased moisture for partly to mostly cloudy skies along with a
few showers over the higher terrain. Another passing disturbance
will produce breezy conditions and cooler temperatures on Friday
and Saturday.


Quiet dry weather will become a little more cloudy and blustery
going through the rest of the week as a pair of shortwave
disturbances move through the Four Corners Region. Shower activity
should be limited to the higher elevations of eastern Arizona...
the main chances of precipitation looks to happen during peak
heating thursday afternoon with lesser chances of more widely
scattered showers Wednesday.

The second of two shortwaves looks to move across the region on
Friday increasing wind speeds and possibly taping into some
moisture to produce showers over the higher terrain. The quick
moving nature of this system will limit its impact on northern

Due to the increasing cloud cover and wind speeds, especially with
the second system temperatures are not expected to reach values
as high as earlier this week. Temperatures by Saturday should be
about 5 degrees cooler than current conditions, with most location
seeing near seasonal normal temperatures through this Saturday.
By Sunday temperatures are expected to rebound back above seasonal
averages as the large scale ridge of high pressure builds back
into the American Southwest.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions through
the next 24 hours with increasing cirrus cloud cover. Expect a
mid level cloud deck to start moving into the KPRC/KGCN area by
18Z Wednesday. Winds generally less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions will continue Wednesday,
increasing mid and high level moisture will bring cloud cover to
all and a slight chance of rain showers to western Arizona.
Wetting precip amounts are not expected.

Thursday through Saturday.  Southwest flow overhead to slowly
strengthen starting Thursday, with improving 20 foot and mixing
layer winds speeds. Very gusty southwest winds are expected Friday
as a cold front moves through the Great Basin. Surface high pressure
building over the Great Basin to bring north northwest flow on






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