Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022203
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
303 PM MST TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED BETWEEN A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. IN ADDITION, TWO TROPICAL
SYSTEMS ARE ROTATING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, HURRICANE ANDRES AND
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA. THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE DEEPENING THE TROUGH ALREADY PRESENT THERE. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, A LOCATION THAT ALLOWS IT TO DRAW GOOD MOISTURE FROM
WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ANDRES NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE.

ON FRIDAY...UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE TEENS AND 20`S ON
THURSDAY MORNING, TO THE 40`S AND 50`S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GENERALLY SPEAKING, A
WIDESPREAD .20 TO .50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...A LOW PRESSURE CELL REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A SOMEWHAT STEADY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT
TIME. LONGER TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL UPTICK IN SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THIS TIME ORIGINATING FROM WHAT IS NOW
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA, IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH
BREEZY WINDS. ON THURSDAY, A PACIFIC LOW WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, GRADUALLY
INCREASING DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ON FRIDAY, GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE
AS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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