Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 051651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ZONES STARTING TUESDAY...WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES REMAIN
ACTIVE.

&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY MORNING. PW OFF THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING WA OVER NINE
TENTHS OF AN INCH. CLEAR SKIES OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES WILL ALLOW THESE AREAS TO CONVECT SOONER THAN THE CLOUDY
AREAS TO TO THE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/... SFC DEW POINTS...SATELLITE
PERCEPTIBLE WATER IMAGES OF 1-1.5 INCHES AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ARE
ALL SIGNS THERE IS OF A LOT OF MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ.
SKY COVER RANGES FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE TO
CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT THAT YAVAPAI COUNTY SHOULD BE THE FIRST AREA TO SEE TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY BY 11 AM OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN THERE.
STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

PROGS SHOW SIMILAR MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WE DID
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WINDOW ROCK AREAS
WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE SEEING
DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE
FROM PAGE TO PAYSON FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF +TSRA. STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFT 06Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STEADILY
DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS RESULTS IN A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/DL
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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