Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 032243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather conditions with a warming trend
through the weekend. A strong cold front may bring much colder
temperatures and some shower activity late Tuesday into Wednesday
of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Arizona remains between low pressure over northern
Mexico and high pressure building in from over the eastern
Pacific. Pressure gradients will remain elevated keeping breezy
northeast winds across the area tonight into Sunday morning. Some
localized areas near mountainous terrain may see wind gusts
tonight in excess of 40 mph, particularly on the downwind
(southwest) sides of the San Francisco Peaks, Mogollon Rim, and
Bradshaw Mountains.

High pressure will continue to build over the area Sunday bringing
seasonable temperatures and decreasing winds. A large scale trough
settles over the western United States Monday and Tuesday of next
week bringing breezy conditions and cooling temperatures. Forecast
models are in pretty good agreement with bringing a cold front
with much colder air into the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday. There will be a slight chance for showers with the
frontal passage, but moisture is limited and models have been
trending drier.

Late next week, the flow becomes more zonal with temperatures
moderating closer to normal.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...VFR conditions across northern
Arizona for the next 24 hours. Til 18z Sun Gusty N-NE winds of 15-35
kts along and south of the Mogollon Rim then decreasing. Light
winds elsewhere. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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