583
FXUS64 KFWD 032302
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The current forecast is in good shape (see discussion below) with
the bulk of the spotty afternoon showers/storms dissipating after
sunset. However, storms are starting to develop across the western
CWA ahead of the supercells currently across parts of the Big
Country and Concho Valley. This activity will move east across the
western counties through the evening. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible, especially west of highway 281. Storms
should continue to weaken as they approach the I-35 corridor late
this evening as they get farther from their initial source of
lift. It should be noted that with transient meso-scale boundaries
at play, storms could develop just about anywhere given the
amount of moisture and instability in the atmosphere.

Moist and unstable air will remain in place on Saturday ahead of
a cold front, warranting some low daytime PoPs. Much better storm
chances are expected Saturday night when the front moves through
the region.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

A Flood Watch is now in effect for eastern Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley. This watch will continue through Sunday morning as
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected.

The weather across North and Central Texas will remain fairly
active as a warm and humid airmass remains established atop our
region. As you step outdoors, the humid airmass remains evident
with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Early
morning convection across southern Oklahoma sent an outflow
boundary southward, meanwhile, ongoing storms across Central
Texas continue to push northwestward. These outflow boundaries
will likely be the focus for isolated convection across North
Texas this afternoon. Given a lack of strong flow, any convection
is likely to remain highly disorganized and fairly short-lived.
Nonetheless, lighting and gusty winds will remain possible with
any of the storms this afternoon.

Across eastern Central Texas, another remnant boundary continues
to be the focus for occasional bouts of heavy rain through the
rest of this afternoon. Considering the antecedent conditions, a
quick 1-2 inches of rain can lead to flash flooding.

Storm chances should dissipate around or shortly after sunset as
daytime heating comes to an end. This is when we`ll turn our
attention to the dryline across West Texas, where storms are once
again expected. Although the dryline will likely be about 100
miles west of our region, storm motion this evening will be to the
east with a few storms arriving to our western-most counties by
9-10pm. Given the storms will become increasingly displaced from
the source of lift, expect storms to gradually dissipate trough
the night. There is a low (~20%) chance of showers or storms
approaching the I-35 corridor closer to midnight. Storms would be
decaying, thus, the threat for severe storms would remain low.
Tonight, expect cloudy and above normal temperatures will lows
remaining in the mid to upper 60s areawide.

Our next rain chances will arrive tomorrow as a cold front moves
southward across our region. A shortwave trough will be migrating
eastward, likely firing off thunderstorms along the leading edge
of the front. At this time, the greatest rain chances will likely
be beyond sunset tomorrow, however, a few isolated showers and
storms cannot be ruled out between noon and sunset. Any storms
that do develop in the afternoon could contain small hail and
gusty winds. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with southerly winds continuing.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

An active weather pattern will continue Saturday night as a
shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet lifts northeast across
North and Central Texas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across the Big Country, and will spread
east across the region overnight into Sunday morning. A wind and
hail threat may accompany these storms across the western half of
the region Saturday evening, but convection will be weakening
Saturday night while moving into a less favorable environment.
Despite the severity or lack thereof, the presence of a quasi-
stationary surface boundary will maintain a threat for more heavy
rain and flooding. This threat will be highest over Central Texas
where heavy rains have already occurred, and where the front will
most likely be located (and is currently exacerbating the ongoing
flooding across the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas). A Flood
Watch has hence been issued through around midday Sunday for
those Central Texas Counties who have experienced multiple rounds
of heavy rain over the past several days.

Convection will move out during the morning hours Sunday, making
for an overall decent day with highs mainly in the 70s. There may
be a few rogue showers that pop up in the afternoon but those
should be few and far between. Attention will then turn to a
larger scale upstream trough, which will cross the Rockies Sunday
night, then lift northeast through the Plains on Monday. Most of
the ascent associated with this system will remain to our north,
but we will still likely have isolated dryline-induced convection
Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage may be low due to the
presence of a capping inversion, but we will otherwise have a warm
and unstable environment in place, and any storms which develop
could become severe.

The passing of the shortwave will send a cold front south into
the area Tuesday night. After a quiet Tuesday, the front will
again provide a focus for convection starting Wednesday, as a
longwave trough produces cyclonic flow overhead for the mid to
late week period. Scattered showers and storms should develop in
the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Not all
will receive rain, but just about any of the area could see a
shower or storm. By Friday, the front will have sagged well south
of the I-20 corridor, unfortunately focusing convection across
the saturated Central and Southeast Texas. The front and trough
will both shift southeast of the region on Saturday, providing dry
weather and overall nice conditions in time for Mother`s Day
weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be
ceiling trends and storm chances.

Spotty afternoon showers and storms will dissipate with the loss
of surface heating but additional storms will approach all TAF
sites from the west late this evening. Most guidance dissipates
this activity before reaching D10, so will not include in this
TAF issuance. Better storm chances will not arrive until Saturday
evening/overnight.

Cu will continue to dissipate with the loss of heating, but low
ceilings will return late this evening to all sites, initially
starting out as MVFR, lowering to IFR towards sunrise. Ceilings
will lift through the morning and eventually scatter Saturday
afternoon.

A south to southeast wind will prevail through Saturday afternoon
between 7 and 12 knots. Some higher gusts are possible in and near
any thunderstorms.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  80  66  78  68 /  20  20  90  50  20
Waco                68  80  67  78  67 /  20  40  80  40  20
Paris               66  80  65  75  65 /  20  40  80  60  20
Denton              66  80  64  77  66 /  20  20  80  50  20
McKinney            66  80  65  77  67 /  20  20  90  50  20
Dallas              68  81  67  79  68 /  20  20  90  50  20
Terrell             66  80  65  76  67 /  20  30  90  50  20
Corsicana           69  82  67  77  69 /  20  40  80  50  20
Temple              69  80  66  79  68 /  20  40  80  40  20
Mineral Wells       66  79  63  76  67 /  30  30  80  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162-
174-175.

&&

$$