Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 292012
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Another week, but the forecast remains the same. Each afternoon,
there will be showers and thunderstorms developing across the
western half of Texas and eventually moving east. Over the next
several days, we will likely see more time without rain than with
rain, but the rain chances will not go away until late in the week
and possibly the weekend. Severe chances this week are lower than
usual for this time of year, with locally heavy rainfall being the
primary threat late Tuesday and Wednesday.
For today and Memorial Day, the forecast should sound familiar.
Thunderstorms are once again ongoing in the Texas panhandle, as
well as just east of the caprock escarpment along a dry line.
These storms will eventually form this evening`s mesoscale
complex, and will once again move through much of the area during
the overnight hours. Ahead of the dry line, there is some
destabilization going on with the sunshine and abundant low level
moisture, as dew points remain in the mid 60s. Surface based CAPE
is running from 1000 to 3500 J/kg across North and Central Texas,
which means we could see a few storms develop before 6 PM. Even
so, the chance for rain will increase after 9 PM for most areas.
Memorial Day itself will not be a washout, as the overnight storms
will diminish early in the day, leaving most of Monday with a mix
of sunshine and clouds, before the cycle repeats itself.
Attention then turns to the midweek system, which will likely have
more of an impact on many of us. Low level and mid level moisture
will still be with us by Tuesday night and Wednesday, while upper
level lift will increase as an upper level low moves closer to
North and Central Texas at the same time the next front gets here.
All of this will combine for higher chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Moisture, lift, and instability will be in place,
while the wind shear will not necessarily be favorable for
widespread severe storms. However, the lack of wind shear will
allow for storms to be slow moving and efficient rainfall
producers. If the current forecast holds true, this would produce
a fairly large area of 2 inch rainfall across portions of the
region. This has the potential to cause some flooding issues in
North Texas, mainly from the rate of rainfall, and not necessarily
the storm total amounts of rainfall. As more details are known,
there is the potential for watches being issued. Since the heaviest
rainfall will likely be tied to the exact positions of the surface
and upper air features, confidence is too low at this time to
pinpoint areas for any flood watches.
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
All of the precipitation from overnight has moved east of the area
leaving behind some slightly drier air and weak subsidence in its
wake...although this will be short lived. Rich low level moisture
is currently in place along and east of the I-35 corridor and will
be available for additional thunderstorm development later this
afternoon and tonight.
Similar to yesterday...weak forcing will spread across west Texas
ahead of a compact upper low over southern California. With strong
heating across much of the state...scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across much of west-central
Texas. These storms will again evolve into several clusters and
move east tonight with the mean flow aloft. While it`s uncertain
exactly where these clusters of storms will develop...it again
appears pretty likely that one or more will move across North and
Central Texas overnight.
For the latest TAFs...will prevail VFR conditions through much of
the period...with VCTS in around midnight. Best chances for
thunderstorms across the area again appears to be in the midnight
to early morning hours timeframe and will have a TEMPO during this
time for thunderstorms. Otherwise...intermittent MVFR cigs will be
possible during the early morning hours...becoming VFR by mid
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 87 70 85 69 / 50 30 30 50 60
Waco 69 87 68 86 69 / 50 30 30 50 50
Paris 67 84 67 82 68 / 30 20 20 40 50
Denton 66 86 68 84 68 / 50 30 30 50 70
McKinney 66 85 67 86 68 / 40 30 20 40 60
Dallas 69 88 71 85 70 / 40 30 30 50 60
Terrell 69 86 68 86 68 / 40 20 20 40 50
Corsicana 69 86 69 85 69 / 40 20 20 40 50
Temple 68 84 68 84 70 / 50 30 30 50 50
Mineral Wells 67 85 67 84 67 / 60 30 30 50 70