Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 131801
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
101 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH FLOW VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES THE OKLAHOMA/TX BORDER...GFS/NAM/TTU
WRF ALL KICK OFF ELEVATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF RED
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPLEX AREA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO DFW TAF AT
19Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TS POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW COVERAGE LOOKS
SCATTERED AND LATER TAFS WILL HOPEFULLY REFINE THE THREAT.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND STRONG UPPER HIGH. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 EACH DAY. AN INTERESTING
TUTT FEATURE WAS NOTED THIS MORNING MOVING WEST ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COASTLINE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. THOUGH THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER DRY FOR MOST
AREAS...THIS TUTT FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY
AND APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET AS
HEATING IS LOST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. AN UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN DEEPENING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
SUPPORT A SHALLOW COLD FRONT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT DURING
THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE FRONT WILL SAG DOWN SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY AND
STALL...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE
WEAK FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH
MAINLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO/WY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES POOLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WE WILL CARRY HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PER POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE.

TRAINING OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE TROPICAL-LIKE
ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLOODING
ISSUES. THE EASTERN U.S UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DEEPENING INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP
AND SOUTH OF AN 850MB FRONT DRAPED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SET UP VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS
AS IT IS A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR TRAINING...HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...
THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE 80S...THOUGH HOTTER CONDITIONS IN THE 90S WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A DAMPENING OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKER ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78  93 /   0   0  10  30  30
WACO, TX              97  74  99  74  96 /   0   0   0  10  30
PARIS, TX             99  73  96  73  89 /   0   5  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            98  74  98  73  92 /   0   0  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX         100  74  98  73  91 /   0   0  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX           100  80  99  78  92 /   0   0  10  30  30
TERRELL, TX          100  75  99  75  94 /   0   0  10  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         98  74  97  75  93 /   5   5   0  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  99  73  96 /   5   0   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72  99  72  92 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.