Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 292059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN INCREASING THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...WHICH HAD BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED
NEARLY CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER JET SEGMENT
OF 110 KNOTS WAS COMING AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WAS COMING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE GULF. OTHERWISE AN MCS WAS NOTED AROUND THE MIDSOUTH
REGION...WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISKS. THE
ACTIVITY WAS STAYING NORTH OF I-20 DUE TO THE STRENGTH FO THE CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS THE
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FOR THE WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH
THESE SHORT WAVES. THE PRIMARY RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO.  PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
ISSUE AS WE PUSH INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS CONCERN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL BRING SOME
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
AROUND 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT...THEN MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THE MODELS BRINGING WAVE AFTER WAVE OVER THE
CWA WILL PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST
AREA FOR TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND PUT IN HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OUR CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTH
DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY ON ANY GRAPHICS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S./17/

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY END THE RAIN FROM THE WEST
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SET UP A DRY PERIOD REGIME OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT
KIND OF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION IN ANY CASE THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR BOUT OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO
THE GFS...WHILE THE EURO TRIES TO BRING IN SOME RAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S./17/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO BRIEFLY
DROP CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR AS THEY PASS OVER AN AERODROME. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY 30/06Z AND LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  84  66  80 /  21  51  71  60
MERIDIAN      66  86  67  81 /  17  30  55  61
VICKSBURG     70  83  66  81 /  39  67  70  52
HATTIESBURG   69  87  70  82 /   6  28  36  65
NATCHEZ       71  82  67  80 /  28  65  67  61
GREENVILLE    68  81  65  82 /  63  61  65  35
GREENWOOD     66  82  66  81 /  49  51  66  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


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