Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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160
FXUS64 KJAN 221615
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1015 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers are moving across the area this morning as the upper cold
core low approaches. Showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorm
activity is likely across much of the area this afternoon into the
evening as the low passes over the area. Currently it looks like any
thunderstorms activity will remain below strong/severe limits, so
have removed this from the HWO/graphicasts. Made a few adjustments
to pops/weather, but other than that the forecast is on track./15/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight:

Main focus for the short term forecast will be the next round of
showers and thunderstorms to move across the forecast area this
morning. This round is not expected to be as severe as last night,
but a few stronger to marginally severe storms are not out of the
question. The driver will be a cold core low sliding east directly
overhead today, with an occluded surface low passing through the Mid-
South. Warmer moist air being wrapped back into the low and quickly
cooling mid levels should be enough to keep at least a few hundred
J/kg of MUCAPE present through the middle of the day. Also, strong
deep layer shear will help this showery activity sustain itself. As
the day progresses, a more stable and saturated airmass will move
into the area. By the evening, we`ll be on the back side of the low
with cooling throughout the atmospheric column, and any precip by
that point will be rain showers. A tight pressure gradient on the
back side of the low will bring in breezy north winds after sunset.
We have gone with a Wind Advisory for far southeast Arkansas and
surrounding parishes and counties through northeast Louisiana and
central Mississippi. We will likely see a few hours of sustained
winds through those areas approaching 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to
40 to 45 mph possible. Winds should relax across the area by sunrise
Monday as the pressure gradient weakens. /NF/

Monday through Saturday:

Monday will finally bring the return of dry weather to the area as
mid level ridging takes control. Meanwhile out west, yet another
system moving into the Pacific Northwest will drop southeast into the
Intermountain West. This should create an amplification of the ridge
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley resulting in anomalous
warming aloft. This should translate to warmer temperatures at
surface, especially as surface winds become southerly once again. As
mid level cold core and its attendant cold front moves into the
Plains Tuesday, moisture return will begin over western sections of
the forecast area. The dry frontal boundary will move rapidly
southeast toward the region Tuesday evening with showers breaking out
after midnight in advance in the steadily moistening airmass over
central and southern sections of the forecast area. These showers
will continue through the day Wednesday, moving out during the
evening.

The mid level trough will move into the center of the country by
late week resulting in a return to more normal January temperatures.
Highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s should be consistent through
the weekend with no precipitation./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through at
least 00Z Monday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
throughout much of the period, with gusty winds expected near heavier
showers or storms. A wind shift will bring low clouds and strong
northwesterly winds after 00Z Monday. Winds will be especially strong
at KGLH, where gusts of up to 35 kts are possible mainly between 00Z
and 09Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  46  57  38 /  74  38   0   1
Meridian      65  47  58  36 /  85  47   7   0
Vicksburg     63  45  58  38 /  92  30   0   1
Hattiesburg   67  49  61  39 /  81  17   3   1
Natchez       64  45  61  42 /  90  19   0   1
Greenville    61  43  54  38 /  81  43   1   1
Greenwood     61  44  54  37 /  83  54   4   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Monday for
     MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041.

LA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ007>009.

AR...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ074-075.


&&


$$

15



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