Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 111602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1002 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Updated for morning discussion.


Temperatures will continue to warm over the next few hours as they
surpass climatological norms for this date. Highs will range from
the lower 70`s in the west to mid 60`s in the east. Dewpoints will
drop a 1-2 degrees in the areas where fire weather conditions
will be a concern but we`ll begin to see dewpoints slightly rise
again in the mid to late afternoon hours as some moisture begins
to advect northward. The previous forecast was on track and only
minor changes were made.

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight:

Get ready for a pleasant Monday. Warm advection will continue to
aide in warming temperatures today. Highs will reach into the 60s
across the area and possibly hit 70 in our most western locations.
Winds may become a little gusty in the afternoon hours as the
pressure gradient tightens late this morning. Gusts up to 20 mph
will be possible in the Delta. This along with the lack of recent
rainfall in that area and the extremely dry airmass in place will
all surely increase the fire weather threat and thus a limited
threat is still being highlighted in the HWO. As an upper
shortwave develops over the Great Lakes today, a dry cold front
will drop through our region late tonight. Winds will shift to the
northwest. Temps will fall into the 30s tonight before the cold
air advection sets up and brings in more chilly air. /10/

Tuesday through Sunday:

The pattern will change from a highly amplified to a more
progressive pattern across the conus during the period.
A dry cold front will come through the region during the period
before we get a late period front that will bring some rain for
next Sunday into Sunday night in this progressive pattern. For
Tuesday in the wake of the short term cold front a short wave will
pass through the region. Temperatures will start to warm some
from the west on Wednesday. Another shortwave will bring a dry
cold front through on Thursday evening. Cut pops in the south for
that period as models do not show much moisture return across the
south. We will get a quick warm up on Saturday as we develop
higher heights in zonal flow from the west. Readings will go
slightly above normal. Models shows better moisture transport for
Sunday into Sunday night. The GFS and its ensembles were more
aggressive with the coverage while the Euro and its ensembles were
not. So opted to go with the Euro and cut back on pops in this
progressive pattern.

As far as temperatures are concern daily highs will be in the 50s
and 60s. Nightly lows will be in the 20s and 30s before warming to
the 40s over the weekend./17/


12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light,
southwesterly winds this morning will increase going into the
afternoon. Gusts between 10-15 kts will be possible at all sites
with the highest wind speeds at GLH and GWO. A dry cold front will
move through the area tonight and bring a wind shift to the
northwest after 00Z. /10/


Jackson       68  39  52  30 /   0   0   1   0
Meridian      65  37  52  28 /   0   0   1   0
Vicksburg     70  38  54  30 /   0   0   1   0
Hattiesburg   67  40  54  29 /   0   0   1   0
Natchez       69  40  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    69  38  51  30 /   0   0   1   0
Greenwood     68  36  50  28 /   0   0   1   0





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