Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 251930
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
230 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: The next 24hrs will be rather quiet and on
the cooler side for late June standards. Look for the decreasing
cloud trend to continue from late afternoon into the evening. This
will work in tandem with the cooler/drier air filtering through
the forecast area behind the cool front. These conditions will
support a cool night across the region with some locals reaching
the upper 50s with other sites seeing lows in the 60-64 degree
range. For Monday, look for another day with below average highs
despite full sunshine. Typically we would expect temps to
overachieve, but thanks to wet soil conditions, readings are
likely to get held in check more. Look for highs to range from
85-88 degrees. /CME/

Monday night through Saturday: Models similar to yesterday in that
mid level troughiness in the east early in the period will support a
surface high pressure ridge over the mid to lower MS valley region.
Flow around the high pressure area will keep winds easterly over the
forecast area, continue the abnormally dry airmass and maintain the
baroclinic zone along the coast. So, basically just a temperature
forecast through Wednesday. The dryness of the airmass will provide
broad diurnal ranges through the first half of the week as overnight
lows will be able to drop well into the 60s and efficient warming
during the day sending maximum temperatures near 90.

By mid week, a more zonal mid level flow will allow the surface
high pressure to skirt far enough east for flow to become more
southerly once again with a return of the muggy airmass. Diurnal
convection will begin popping as well with a weak mid level shear
axis draped over the region.

A gradual troughiness over the mid MS valley by the end of the
week will bring a decent shortwave into the area Saturday.
Associated convection may have some miroburst potential according
to local microburst composite parameter. Will need to watch to see
how this pans out with time./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Precip is dissipating across the central portions of the forecast
area as of 17z. Left in the wake is quite a bit of mid level
clouds. Look for these VFR ceilings to dissipate through the
remainder of the afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing tonight
and into Monday. Looks for winds to remain on the light side from
the N/NE for the next 24hrs. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  87  65  89 /   2   1   5  13
Meridian      62  87  62  88 /   1   1   5   9
Vicksburg     63  87  64  89 /   2   1   5  14
Hattiesburg   64  88  65  90 /   2   4   6  21
Natchez       64  85  66  87 /   3   5   6  20
Greenville    62  87  65  89 /   0   0   4  10
Greenwood     61  87  63  88 /   0   0   3   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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