Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 300214 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...Isolated showers continue this evening across nw portions
of the cwa...with dry weather across the reminder of the cwa. Shower
activity will continue to diminish this evening...with dry weather
expected for the remainder of the night. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s. The only changes to the current fcst were to remove
thunder for the remainder of the evening...and to the hourly temps
this evening to account for the latest trends. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue at all sites through much
of the period. Patchy areas of fog may return once again to TAF
sites Monday morning but this should be rather brief. Winds will be
light to calm tonight and return to around 5-10kts out of the north
to northwest Monday. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms will
again be possible especially across western TAF sites but will let
future shifts address this in the official TAF. /28/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet and warm conditions are expected to persist through
the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend as a surface high remains
situated over the region. A mostly sunny afternoon is underway with
temperatures now into the 90s at most locations across the area. Thus
far, diurnal convection has remained confined to our NW over
Arkansas and SE in SE Mississippi and SW Alabama. High-res guidance
continues to suggest a few of these showers or storms could sneak in
to the Delta or Pine Belt late this afternoon or early this evening,
but the vast majority of locations should remain dry. Monday and
Tuesday`s forecasts will take on a pretty similar theme to today,
though there will be an opportunity for isolated convection over a
larger area as the surface high begins to break down given decreasing
upper support. Still, most areas are expected to remain dry for
holiday festivities on Memorial Day. /DL/

Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday Night)...The upper ridge will
weaken over the area on Wednesday as an upper trough deepens to our
west. This combined with an increase in moisture with PWATS ranging
from 1.5 to 1.7 inches, will allow for an increase in thunderstorms
across the area, with the best chances in the west.

The upper trough will drag a weak cold front into the Delta by
Thursday afternoon with more widespread showers and thunderstorms
anticipated on Thursday across much of the area. The GFS/ECMWF are
both trying to cut off a low to our southwest on Friday and both the
models have differing scenarios with the movement of this low as we
get into the weekend. With both solutions though, it looks like the
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday
night with cooler temperatures./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  92  67  92 /  10  16  10  20
Meridian      66  92  66  92 /   8  11   8  19
Vicksburg     65  90  65  91 /  12  18  10  22
Hattiesburg   68  93  67  93 /   8  14   8  19
Natchez       66  88  68  89 /  10  21  12  21
Greenville    69  90  69  90 /  17  21  11  28
Greenwood     68  90  66  90 /  15  18   7  26

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


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