Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 281526 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1026 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...WE ARE OFF TO ANOTHER NICE START THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S. 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING SHOWED PW REMAINING LOW AT 0.86 IN, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGIN TODAY.
STILL, THIS INCREASE IS QUITE UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TODAY. SOME SMALL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS, AS THEY
WERE RUNNING A BIT TOO WARM. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...BETWEEN 4-7
KNOTS...WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.  THESE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WAS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
OUR BOUT OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPS PRIOR TO DAWN WERE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE
WILL HAVE ONE MORE DRY DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM THE EAST AS THE CLOSED WEAK UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL AREA. PWATS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE EAST AS
LEVELS PUSH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT PER LATEST GFS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SUPPORTED BY THE ARW HI-RES MODEL. SO MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW BLENDED POPS. NAM POPS WERE A LITTLE
TOO HIGH. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS 89-92. FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE EAST HIGHS WILL BE FROM
THE UPPER 80S EAST TO THE LOWER 90S WEST. NIGHTLY LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY
NIGHT. /17/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WEST WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
SURGES WELL NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. IN THE TRANSITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND MEANDER AROUND AS THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES BECOMES DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH.

THE NET EFFECT FOR THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD MEAN GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIFT. NEW GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES/POPS ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE LATEST NHC FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA WELL EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH DAY FIVE WITH A TRACK NOW
GOING NORTHWARD THROUGH FL PENINSULA. THEREAFTER IN THE WED/THU TIME
FRAME...THE GEFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM LOCATION DUE
TO POTENTIAL WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND THE PROPENSITY FOR A WEAKER
CYCLONE TO MEANDER IN SUCH A WEAK HEIGHT PATTERN.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF GEFS MEMBERS BRINGS A WEAKER SYSTEM
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE 00Z
OP GFS...SUGGESTS IT WOULD EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE ARKLAMISS BY FLOW AROUND A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDED...WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND CONTINGENT
ON MANY FACTORS...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE STORM SURVIVING
SHEAR/LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  67  91  69 /   0   3   8   8
MERIDIAN      91  68  89  68 /   4   4  20  20
VICKSBURG     91  64  92  68 /   0   0   5   5
HATTIESBURG   92  68  90  69 /   4   4  19  19
NATCHEZ       89  65  90  68 /   0   0   4   4
GREENVILLE    90  66  92  69 /   0   0   5   5
GREENWOOD     90  67  91  69 /   0   1   7   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/19/17/EC


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