Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241800
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1200 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For the 24/18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface low developing in the plains is allowing for southerly
winds to return and eventually low level moisture. KBPT will be
the first to see MVFR ceilings off and on this afternoon, with
other sites seeing MVFR, then IFR over night into Early Wednesday.

A cold front will move through near the end of this TAF package.
May have a few showers ahead of the front, so mentioned VCSH at
terminals after 25/14Z.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1112 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Return flow becoming well established across the area as surface
high pressure moves off to the east and low pressure moves east
across the Central Plains. Increasing and gusty south winds along
with higher dewpoints and some developing fair weather CU noted
over SE TX and SE LA. Current forecast is on target, with just
some minor adjustments to hourly grids to nudge them a little
closer to OBS. Updated ZFP sent to remove morning fog mention.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 539 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

AVIATION...
Areas of BR developing acrs se Tx and srn La this am. Look to see
this cont thru 14z before all issues are resolved. Clouds to move
in late today ahead of the next system that is expected thru tmrw.
Therefore... ceiling xpcd to drop twrds midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Quick update this morning to add fog wording along and south of
the I-10 corridor. Visibilities from Beaumont to Lake Charles to
New Iberia have been fluctuating in the 1/2 to 2 1/2 mile range
and expect this to continue for the next few hours. Do not
anticipate the need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory as the patchy
nature and limited spatial extent does not lend itself to that
criteria. Fog should dissipate by 9:00 AM.

Jones

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A little unforeseen fog developing across the area this morning.
So far visibility reductions have been limited to a swath roughly
extending from Beaumont to Lake Charles. If coverage continues to
increase forecast may require updating in the next couple of
hours, but given the limited nature and the fact that products
were just issued, going to take a wait and see approach for the
time being.

Otherwise, another very pleasant day in store with plenty of
sunshine although temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer than
yesterday. With high pressure sliding off to the east today,
southerly winds will increase throughout the day (turning breezy
by this afternoon with winds in the 10-15 MPH range) ushering in
low level moisture in advance of our next cold front which will
swing through the area Wednesday. Guidance is in pretty good
agreement with regards to timing with isolated showers beginning
across the Piney woods of texas just after midnight and gradually
increasing in coverage as the activity pushes through Southwest
Louisiana during the morning hours and through acadiana during
the early to mid afternoon.

Behind the front average to slightly below average temperatures
will prevail through the end of the week. Another front moves
through the area Sunday afternoon reinforcing the normal
temperatures. At this time guidance is indicating that this should
be a largely dry front as it moves through with only isolated
showers over the coastal waters. High pressure settling over the
area behind this front will keep things quiet to start next week.

MARINE...
Small craft exercise caution has been issued from 00Z this evening
until 12Z Wednesday as winds are expected to be in the 15-20 knot
range. A cold front will push through the area Wednesday turning
winds out of the north and increasing them to advisory criteria
Wednesday evening into Thursday. Winds will calm by Thursday
evening leaving light northerly winds to end the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  59  71  40 /   0  20  50  10
LCH  75  64  74  45 /   0  20  40  10
LFT  74  63  76  48 /   0  10  50  10
BPT  77  64  74  46 /   0  20  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from 6 PM CST this evening through
     late tonight for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



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