Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 220456
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY BIG CHANGE FROM 00Z WAS TO PREVAIL MVFR VSBYS AT KAEX DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF CURRENT OBS...LATEST
GUIDANCE...AND PERSISTENCE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING COOL FRONT ACROSS N TX AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE ARKLATEX...WITH A PRETTY NON-EXISTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...CALM WINDS
AREAWIDE THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS IN THE MID
70S NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH FURTHER...WITH FORECASTED LOWS
NEAR/LOWER 70S ON TRACK. WITH THE CALM WINDS...MAY SEE INTERMITTENT
PATCHY GROUND FOG...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY. CDFNT
TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH. A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT REACHES THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE I-10
TERMINALS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
TODAY. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE
HAS MAINTAINED A MOSTLY RAIN FREE DAY OVER THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT
AND BRIEF SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS MARGINAL ESPECIALLY OVER SE TEXAS AND EXTREME SW LOUISIANA.
MORE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARE PROGGED OVER
LOWER ACADIANA SO WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THAT REGION.
WHILE THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER NORTHERN GULF ON
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
FRONTAL POSITION AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
CHALLENGING. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. OF
NOTE...LOWS SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES TO ALLOW WINDS TO REACH SCEC
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
REACHED. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE
MARINE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  90  65  86  64 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  73  91  66  86  65 /  10  30  20  10  10
KAEX  69  86  59  85  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KLFT  71  90  63  86  63 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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