Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AFTER 29/20Z AS
A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MOVE INLAND AND WILL MAKE
MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAEX TO COVER THIS.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND SUNRISE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07


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