Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 270954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
454 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Vigorous shortwave trof evident in water vapor imagery over ERN
KS/OK is progged to continue translating quickly eastward today,
with its associated sfc low tracking NE through the Mid MS River
Valley and the trailing CDFNT forecast to stall out well N/NW of
the area. While FCST soundings depict a fair amount of instability
with little to no inhibition, forcing for ascent appears rather
anemic/unfocused. 0-6KM shear is near the lower threshold for a
severe risk, so given all of these factors, expect isolated to
scattered mainly afternoon convection, with a few pulse-type
strong/severe storms capable of producing hail/wind gusts.
Activity will be primarily diurnally driven, and should dissipate
after sunset. An otherwise warm, humid, and somewhat breezy
afternoon is expected.
Warm and dry weather expected TUE as ridging aloft slides across
the Gulf Coast states between the departing shortwave trof and
another more robust trof digging into the Four Corners. This
feature is progged to close off and move only slowly eastward WED
and THU across the Central/Southern Plains TWD the MS River Valley.
Strong lift and impressive kinematics coupled with rich MSTR and
moderate instability will yield scattered to numerous showers and
TSTMS across the area. Activity should initially affect SE TX WED
afternoon, then develop/spread farther east into LA by WED night
into THU before pushing east of the area by THU night as a CDFNT
sweeps through the area. All severe modes appear possible, along
with a risk of locally heavy rainfall.
Another dry day on tap for FRI, with yet another upper level
system bringing rain chances back into the picture for the
weekend. Still a fair amount of variability in Global models with
Modest southerly flow will continue today between an area of high
pressure to the east and an area of low pressure tracking from the
Southern Plains northeast toward the Mid Mississippi River Valley.
Winds will subside a bit tonight as this low continues to pull
away from the area, but are forecast to begin to strengthen again
on Tuesday as another low pressure system emerges east of the
Rockies. Brisk south winds will continue Wednesday as this
feature tracks eastward across the Plains, subsequently pulling a
frontal boundary through the coastal waters Thursday afternoon or
evening. A brief period of offshore flow will follow the frontal
passage, with southerly winds returning by Friday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 81 67 82 67 / 40 20 10 10
LCH 80 66 81 68 / 20 10 10 10
LFT 83 70 84 70 / 10 10 10 10
BPT 83 68 83 70 / 20 10 10 10