Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 060444
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...RADARS AND HRRR MODEL ARE QUIET TNITE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD BE BUILDING WHILE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE GULF CONTINUES BELOW
THE INVERSION. THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LCH. MONDAY
EVENING BOTH BPT AND LCH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11


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