Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 011142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






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