Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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546
FXUS64 KLCH 231108
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
508 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
For the 01/23/18 1200 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR to prevail through the forecast period underneath high and
thin cirrus, with N to NW SFC winds generally under 10KT becoming
near calm this evening. Small changes in wind speed and direction
were averaged out to keep a single FM group for each site.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/

SYNOPSIS...
Deep upper low that brought showers and storms to the area
yesterday morning is now quickly moving into the Great Lakes
region. Southwesterly flow is noted aloft in the wake the upper
system, with Pacific moisture streaming over the region in the
form of some high clouds. At the sfc, high pres continues to ridge
east over the area, with dry and cool conditions in place early
this morning.

24

DISCUSSION...
High pres will continue to build over the region through
Wednesday. Northerly winds will maintain the dry weather pattern,
with overnight temperatures running a few degrees below normal and
aftn highs near or slightly abv normal.

A progressive pattern will continue through the week. Sfc high
pres will move east by late Thursday into Friday, causing
temperatures to moderate and low level moisture to increase by
Friday into Saturday. Few changes to the fcst for next weekend as
a shortwave trough enters the southern plains by Saturday. As it
does, sfc low pres will develop and eject northeast in advance of
the system, dragging a cold front into the area. Strengthening
southerly flow and increasing lift in advance of this system will
bring a chc of showers late Thursday night into Friday. Showers
will become more widespread on Saturday, along with a few embedded
tstms, as the front moves into the area. Model guidance suggests
sfc low pres will develop near the north central Gulf coast near
or just ahead of the front on Saturday. The low is expected to
slide quickly east to northeast with the frontal boundary as it
moves through the area, and at this time, any impacts associated
with the low (such as heavy rainfall or strong storms) look to
stay east of the area. However, there is still some uncertainty
amongst the global models regarding the strength of the upper
level system and placement of the associated sfc features, and
details should become better resolved with future model runs over
the next couple of days.

Rain chances are expected to decrease Saturday night into Sunday
as sfc high pres builds back acrs the area. Dry weather and near
climo temps are expected for early next week.

24

MARINE...
The pres gradient in the wake of yesterday`s front remains strong
enough to produce northerly winds 20-25 KT over the outer coastal
waters south of the Lower Atchafalaya River (GMZ 475). Because of
this, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for early this
morning for this area, with exercise caution for GMZ472. Winds are
expected to diminish enough by mid-morning that both headlines
will expire at 15Z (0900 CST).

Otherwise, moderate offshore flow is expected to continue through
Wednesday night. By Thursday and Friday, high pressure will shift
east of the region, with moderate east to southeast winds
developing by Thursday and Friday.

Showers and tstms will increase Friday into Saturday as a cold
front moves into the area. Ahead of the front, sfc low pres is
fcst to develop over the north central Gulf on Saturday. This
could result in stronger winds, especially over the eastern
coastal waters zones, depending on where the low develops and how
strong it becomes. The low will quickly move east to northeast
with the passage of the cold front, with strong offshore flow
developing in the wake of the front Saturday night into Sunday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  34  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  63  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  62  38  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  39  64  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning for
     GMZ472.

&&

$$



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