


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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464 FXUS64 KSHV 160548 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1248 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Mostly dry conditions will prevail through at least Thursday morning, with only slight chances across our northern zones today. - Heat Advisories return on Tuesday and may extend into Wednesday. - All eyes remain hyper-focused on the tropics as there is a 40% chance of some tropical development across the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Although radar imagery has gone quiet early this afternoon, models continue to suggest the idea that there could be some isolated convection across our northern zones this afternoon so I have maintained some mention of PoPs across this area through this evening. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions have settled in to the region and will remain in place through at least Thursday morning. Despite the heat today, I have elected to lay in the bed we made and not issue a Heat Advisory for this afternoon as I still think we will be borderline at best. I was on the fence for Wednesday too, and after some consideration, I decided to go with a Heat Advisory for portions of our eastern zones. Please see the latest headlines for details on exact location. Pretty good chance that Heat Advisories could be extended into Thursday for some portions of the area as heat index values will remain at critical levels. Our next good chance of any precipitation for portions of our area won`t come till later in the week and in the form of tropical moisture. There is some uncertainty with this system, especially with the model runs today. I don`t think models will start to level out till the system is fully in the Gulf and we can see how it starts to interact with the waters there. Regardless, NBM continues to show increased rain chances from the system late Thursday and into Friday, but the overall theme of location and timing will be refined through the week as the picture becomes more clear. This system will also play a major role in what our temperatures this upcoming weekend will look like, so just continue to monitor the forecast for the latest. /33/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the 16/06Z TAFs, as high pressure builds overhead, VFR conditions will prevail for much of the forecast period. A few high clouds overnight will be the only break to mostly clear skies, with sustained winds preventing the widespread CIG/VSBY reductions which have been so common at daybreak recently, the only exception being KLFK, where BKN MVFR CIGs are possible in the morning hours. An afternoon Cu field is expected to develop, but thunderstorm development is not looking likely enough to bear mentioning at this time. Light south winds will continue through the night, becoming southwesterly into the day at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 15 kts possible. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Activation of storm spotter are not expected today through tonight. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 10 MLU 98 77 98 76 / 0 0 20 10 DEQ 95 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 95 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 96 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 96 73 97 75 / 0 0 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...None. TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...26