Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 300318
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1018 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Small changes to pops and low due to rainfall

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A rain cooled 68 in Idabel OK and 71 in DeQueen AR are making for
a nice evening...but these air temps may edge back up overnight.
No other changes to lows anywhere else at this time. We have
dropped the chance pop line a little farther South for this
evening and outflow is moving toward southern Bowie county now. So
far nothing new on the outflow but perhaps over the next hour or
two. The HRRR and the NAM hint at a need for more pop over East TX
by daybreak after a look a the GFS and obs again we may tweak
whats left around midnight if there is anything left at that time./24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Widely scattered convection currently firing well north of our
terminal sites this evening in association with a weakening upper
level shear axis dropping southeast in weak northwest flow aloft.
Models are in good agreement with this activity slowly dissipating
tonight with the loss of daytime heating. This activity should
remain well north of our terminal sites overnight.

VFR conditions should prevail overnight except for some patchy fog
in the 3-5SM range which could develop at the ELD/MLU/LFK
terminals in the 09-13z timeframe on Sat. Otherwise...expect the
development of a cu field on Sat with heat induced isolated
afternoon convection which will be to limited to warrant a mention
in this 24hr TAF package.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Several different features contributing to convection over the
region today. A weak mid to upper level shear axis along with
daytime heating across Southeast Texas has resulted in isolated
convection developing across the Brazos River Valley and spreading
northeast into Deep East Texas. Daytime heating has also lead to
isolated convection across our Central Louisiana parishes.
Northwesterly flow aloft has allowed an old outflow boundary from
overnight convection in NW Oklahoma to move southeast into the
Interstate 30 corridor our our region. Isolated convection has
developed on an off along this boundary today. Latest model
guidance suggests redevelopment may continue to occur along the
remnant outflow boundary through the evening hours. A similar
setup is expected on tomorrow as another convective complex is
expected to develops over Oklahoma and another outflow boundary is
sent southeastward towards our CWA along with more possible
diurnal convection.

Rain chances will continue on Sunday, but will shift slightly
eastward, as we continue to be in Northwest flow aloft. As we
continue through next week, rain chances will gradually diminish
and become confined to our Louisiana and Southern Arkansas zones
on Tuesday. A broad upper ridge builds into the region by mid
week, but weak mid-level disturbances rotating underneath the
ridge could provide some increased chances for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms through next weekend. Daytime high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s can be expected as early as
Monday and persisting through the next work week. With the lack of
significant rainfall expected for next week, expect heat indices to
return above 105 degrees, and possible heat advisories returning.

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  93  76  96 /  20  40  20  20
MLU  75  93  75  95 /  20  40  20  30
DEQ  70  92  73  94 /  40  40  20  30
TXK  70  94  76  95 /  40  40  20  30
ELD  74  92  74  94 /  40  40  20  30
TYR  77  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  77  95  76  96 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  76  95  75  96 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/13/20


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