Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 260259
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
959 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is in good shape and will make no changes
this evening. After a cool night temperatures will rebound during
the day Sunday with returning and gradually increasing Southerly
winds into the afternoon and overnight Sunday. This returning
moisture will help upper features to provide showers and
thunderstorms to parts of the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 00Z TAF pd. Wly-swly
winds will become light a vrbl at most sites overnight, and
increase out of the s after sunrise. Tightening pressure gradient
will cause wind speeds to further increase to between 10 and 15
kts. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wrap around moisture from upper-low across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas continues to provide scattered to broken
cloud deck across the interstate 30 corridor this afternoon. Sky
conditions to gradually improve during the evening as upper low
shifts north. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the
upper 40s to lower 50s across the region.

A progressive weather pattern will continue through much of the
forecast period. A series of disturbances will allow for organized
convection on Sunday and Wednesday nights. On Sunday, a surface
low across the Texas panhandle will shift east. Moisture ahead of
a trailing dryline should recover sufficiently across northeast
Texas and southeast Oklahoma to support strong to severe
thunderstorms. As lapse rates steepen in response to an
approaching upper-low, instability should be sufficient to allow
for supercell development. Dry air aloft could lead to strong
downdrafts, posing a damaging wind threat across southeast
Oklahoma and extreme northeast Texas. Hail and isolated tornadoes
are also possible.

Trailing frontal boundary to linger across the region through
Wednesday allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms each
day through midweek across parts of the Arklatex.

Pressure gradient to increase on Wednesday allowing for return
flow of gulf moisture across the region ahead of the next storm
system. Similar to the previous event on Friday and the upcoming
event on Sunday, a surface and upper low across Texas panhandle
will deepen and push east allowing for a chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms. Latest model run of the GFS and Euro
disagree on the timing and nature of this event with the GFS
supporting a secondary surface low contributing to added risk of
strong thunderstorms again on Thursday. Conditions to improve on
Friday.

High temperatures around 80 can be expected each day through the
middle of next week with a dip into the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower
60s expected through mid week and the low to mid 50s late next
week. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  85  63  81 /  10  10  30  30
MLU  52  82  62  82 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  45  80  57  77 /  10  10  60  30
TXK  50  80  60  78 /  10  10  40  30
ELD  48  80  61  80 /  10  10  30  50
TYR  52  85  63  80 /  10  10  30  20
GGG  50  85  63  81 /  10  10  30  20
LFK  51  87  65  85 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/12/05



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