Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 242301
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
601 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Lgt winds and vfr skc to prevail for most of the night, aside from
some patchy thin cirrus. Brief fog possible at KMLU after 25/09z
and mvfr decks may advect nwd btwn 25/10-12z into ne TX as south
winds quickly begin to increase by daybreak. These south winds to
increase to 20 kts with gusts over 30 kts after 25/18z over ne TX
and near 15 kts adn gusty over eastern portions of the cwa. lower
mrng clouds becmg scattered cumulus by 25/15-17z also./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Beautiful weather across the Four State Region today with
temperatures warming well into the 70s with afternoon relative
humidity values in the 20s across most locations. Another cool
night in store tonight but not as cool as last night as light
south winds will begin returning overnight as surface high
pressure will shift east of the region.

Tuesday will begin a very windy period across most of the region
as a tightening pressure gradient across the Southern Plains/Lower
Miss Valley will result in all but our extreme eastern zones meeting
Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Have gone ahead and issued a Lake
Wind Advisory for Tue making it valid from 10 am through 7 pm.
This tightening pressure gradient will help to very quickly draw
up Gulf of Mexico moisture which will be the necessary ingredient
along with daytime heating for the possibility of strong to severe
thunderstorms on Wed. The storm system responsible for the mid
week severe weather possibilities will be exiting the Four Corners
Region Tue aftn and moving into the TX Hill Country Wed morning.
Much of the region will be capped during the day Wed but sufficient
heating should result in impressive afternoon instability which
combined with steep mid level lapse rates and strong upper level/
frontal forcing to produce strong to severe convection. Hail and
High Winds appear to be the main threat attm but obviously, isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially if there is any backing
of low level wind profiles ahead of the frontal boundary itself.
The severe threat should continue into the evening across our
eastern half before the convection quickly exits the region to our
east during the overnight hours Wed Night into early Thu morning.

We should see a brief cool down during the day Thursday with post
frontal conditions but that will be temporary as the front to our
south is expected to begin quickly returning northward as a warm
front overnight Thursday Night and during the day Friday. This due
in part to a shift in the Westerlies pattern across the Lower 48
as upper ridging will begin to dominate the Southeast U.S. while
upper troughing will begin to dominate the Inter Mountain West.
This will result in southwest flow aloft across the Southern
Plains/Lower Miss Valley which will once again be the setup for
increasing Gulf of Mexico moisture and Eastern Pacific Moisture
as well. A deepening upper level trough across the Four Corners
Region will be slow to eject our way due to the blocking ridge
across the Eastern Seaboard but it will be in close enough
proximity for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this
weekend, especially late in the day on Saturday and into Sunday
assuming more favorable upper level forcing holds off until the
Sat Night/Sunday timeframe when not only will there be a severe
thunderstorm threat but a flooding threat as well.

Prelims to follow...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  86  69  83 /   0  10  10  60
MLU  52  85  67  84 /   0   0  10  50
DEQ  51  84  67  75 /   0   0  20  60
TXK  56  84  67  79 /   0   0  20  60
ELD  51  84  66  83 /   0   0  10  60
TYR  59  86  70  80 /   0  10  20  60
GGG  58  85  69  81 /   0  10  10  60
LFK  59  87  72  86 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-
     059-060-070-071.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001-002-
     010-017.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$



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