Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261120
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
520 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 26/12z TAFs, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites
through at least 27/00z, but clouds will be increasing through the
period as an upper trough approaches the region. Convection is
expected to develop by late afternoon across Central Texas and
will spread into the area beginning around 27/00z. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to advance eastward, but should
persist at most TAF sites through at least the end of the period.
Deteriorating flight conditions can be expected with the
convection as ceilings and visibilities decrease, and localized
instances of IFR/LIFR conditions are possible due to the showers
and storms. A couple of severe storms cannot be ruled out.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers to increase in coverage from the west today as a surface
low deepens across north Texas and southwest upper-level flow
leads to increased instability. Warm air advection to increase
overnight allowing for an enhanced low-level jet across the
region. A weak warm front will shift north allowing for a chance
of thunderstorms overnight across much of the region. Temperatures
today to warm into the 60s across AR/OK and lower 7s0 across
TX/LA.

Showers and thunderstorms to continue into Monday. Tight pressure
gradient between surface high across east coast and a low in the
plains to continue to allow for southerly winds supporting
enhanced moisture advection from the gulf. Models somewhat
disagree on precip coverage across the ArkLaTex due to variability
in location of surface front. However, will maintain pops through
Monday simply based on instability.

Severe thunderstorms possible on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night as a mid-level trough and surface cold front shift east
across the ArkLaTex. Warm air advection from the south ahead of
the front may allow for a hail or tornado threat during the
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms along the cold front may
support a damaging wind and hail threat during the evening.
However, there is some uncertainty in the severe weather threat at
this time. One limiting factor may be that persistant cloud cover
across the region may limit instability necessary to generate
strong storms during this time period.

High pressure to rebuild across the region on Wednesday with dry
conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s each day. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  59  77  64 /  20  70  50  30
MLU  68  56  75  64 /  10  60  60  40
DEQ  61  47  68  57 /  40  70  50  20
TXK  63  53  71  62 /  30  70  50  30
ELD  65  53  71  61 /  10  70  50  30
TYR  65  59  77  64 /  40  70  50  20
GGG  67  59  76  64 /  30  70  50  20
LFK  70  61  79  65 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/09


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