Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 290311
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
S OF ACT...TO NEAR DKR...TO LFK...ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
TO A IER TO HEZ LINE AS OF 02Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING A DFW...TO OSA...TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY FOCUSED
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FROM NEAR/S OF ACT E INTO
ANDERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL/ECNTRL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER N LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO NE
TX/SW AR/SE OK WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK...WHICH MAY YIELD A FEW HAILERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATE.

HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR E TX/NCNTRL LA...BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
LATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE FARTHER SSE OF THIS AREA OVER E TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR. ALSO
ADDED IN HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRAIN OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO EXPAND THE FFA AS NEEDED ONCE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND IS ANALYZED.

ALSO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS THEY
MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND SLOWLY RISE LATE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 29/06Z BUT A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO
THE TAF SITES. THUS...HAVE KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
THE FRONT AFTER 29/10Z WHEN THE FRONT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  40  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  20  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  66  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  64  80  68  80 /  40  80  70  70
TYR  70  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  69  84  69  83 /  50  70  80  60
LFK  72  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

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