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000
FXUS64 KSHV 091717
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF EROSION THIS
MORNING...AS IT REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME AREAS ACROSS SE OK/SW AR MAY SEE A LITTLE SUN
TODAY BEFORE THE ELEVATED CLOUD COVER ARRIVES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP TRAVERSING THE PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES. BUT
UNFORTUNATELY...THE STRATUS SHIELD HAS REDEVELOPED ATOP THE
SNOW/ICEPACK OVER ERN/SE OK AND WRN AR...AND THUS...WILL HAVE TO
WAIT ONE MORE DAY TO SEE A LITTLE SUN.

TEMPS HAVE HELD NEARLY STEADY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FG STILL
LINGERING AS OF 16Z ACROSS MUCH OF N LA/E TX GENERALLY S OF I-20.
THUS...BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME WARMING UP
TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF E TX/N LA LUCKY TO REACH/EXCEED 40
DEGREES. BUT THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
OVERRUNNING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE
SRN PLAINS. THIS OVERRUNNING SHOULD QUICKLY SATURATE THE VERY DRY
COLUMN CURRENTLY IN PLACE ABOVE THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING A COUPLE DEGREES AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
MIXED DOWN TO THE GROUND WITH THE AREAS OF -RA.

DID LOWER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST UPDATE...WITH
TEMPS ONLY RISING SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FROM THE 16Z OBS. DID ALSO
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS SE OK/SW AR...AS STRONG
FORCING ALOFT WILL HELP QUICKLY SATURATE THE COLUMN AND ALLOW FOR
-RA TO REACH THE GROUND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILALE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/TEMPO LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.
VSBYS HAVE ALSO BEEN DEGRADED DUE TO FOG...MAINLY AT THE LFK/MLU
TERMINALS WITH IFR VSBY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 18Z.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
COLD AIR AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY WARM AND MOIST SW
FLOW ALOFT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-20 LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ONCE THE SHORT WAVE EXITS AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MUCH IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING AREA
WIDE BY 10/15Z. SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 6-12 KTS AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE SW WITH 80 KTS AT 25KFT AND 100 KTS AT 35KFT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  31  46  28  49 /  30  40  10  10  10
MLU  42  32  45  28  49 /  30  60  10  10  10
DEQ  40  24  42  23  46 /  20  20  10  10  10
TXK  39  27  43  26  46 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  39  27  45  25  49 /  30  40  10  10  10
TYR  41  27  44  28  47 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  41  28  44  27  47 /  30  30  10  10  10
LFK  44  32  48  30  50 /  30  40  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/19