Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 241915
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06


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