Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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627
FXUS64 KSHV 121250
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12/12Z TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 13/12Z...MOSTLY
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND DEEP EAST TEXAS...
THAT WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND MID MORNING 1/15Z...AND VFR
BETWEEN 12/15-12/16Z. A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER EAST
TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL SHIFT SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS IN ITS
WAKE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH LESS THAN 7 KNOTS
PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 13/12Z TO
NORTHEAST TO EAST 7-12 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
FOG IS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY BUT
SHOULD BE COOLED BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT WILL HELP BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WHEN THE RAIN DEVELOPS
NORTH OF I-30 BUT THE ONSET OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...ANY WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX. THERE SHOULD BE
A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS THE TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO YIELD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE INCH.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEYOND
MONDAY AS A DRY SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD FOLLOWED BY THE
CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE DURING THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...THIS COULD BRING SOME RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  40  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  65  37  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  32  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  64  35  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  63  33  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  69  42  58  45 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  68  42  54  38 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  73  45  60  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



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