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000
FXUS64 KSHV 120854
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL BAND OF CLOUDS ON IR SAT IMAGES DENOTED THE LEADING EDGE OF
A COLD FRONT. AS OF 12/08Z...THIS FRONT WILL ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM
NEAR WELLS TX...TO KSHV...TO MAGNOLIA AR. FRONT IS MAKING QUICK
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE SE OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING.
STRONG NWLY SFC WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FROPA. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
STRONG AND GUSTY FOR MOST OF TODAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AREAWIDE THROUGH 13/00Z. COOL AND DRY PAC NW AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. QUITE A CHANGE COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS TEMPS GET KNOCKED BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SRN AR/SE OK.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

IT STILL APPEARS WET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL GET PICKED BACK UP BY THE UPPER LVL WRLYS AND SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. A SFC LOW AND WEAK FRONT
WILL TRACK EWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE RICH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD PROVIDE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT
STILL DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE
GFS STILL THE FASTER AND MORE NRN TRACK. LATEST MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. HAVE SIDED MORE
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND SUNDAY LOOK QUIET. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IS FCST TO CUT OFF OVER NRN MX WHICH SHOULD PLACE THE
CWA UNDER DRY WNWLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  36  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  61  35  62  40  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
DEQ  59  30  64  36  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  57  34  63  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  59  32  64  39  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
TYR  60  35  64  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
GGG  61  35  63  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
LFK  64  35  65  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09/06