Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 072009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
309 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR SHOWING SCT TSTMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME NRN SECTIONS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
ELSEWHERE...DISORGANIZED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE
CONVECTION ACROSS SE OK/SW AR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN BUILDING IN OVER THE SERN
U.S. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE STALLED FRONT
MOVES BACK NWD AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS WILL DRY US OUT AND WILL
ALSO PUSH OUR MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 90S. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY COME IN DURING THE WEEKEND
FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES/PARISHES...BUT THE RIDGE IS FCST TO DRIFT
OVHD AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SQUASH ANY CHANCES FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. TEMPS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE AIDED UPWARDS TOWARDS THE
CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY AS SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
DEPLETED. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

AVIATION...
INTRODUCED VCSH AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING
TO POP. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE
TO HEATING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS AND
ALLOW FOR MIXING AND THINNING OF CLOUDS. THE SURROUNDING WFO WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 12 KTS WITH GUST OF 20 KT POSSIBLE
THEN AROUND 6 PM THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN. THE DECOUPLING
WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS SLOWING DOWN. AS THE INVERSION FORMS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS NEAR SUNRISE.

IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CLIMB AND/OR SCATTER OUT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ON WED. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ON WED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS.

21/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  73  89  72  90 /  40  20  20  10
TXK  76  92  74  92 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  74  92  73  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  91  74  91 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  76  93  74  92 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  95  75  94 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12


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