Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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399 FXUS62 KTAE 130603 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 203 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 We still expect severe weather and heavy rain to be a threat to the forecast area starting Monday and lasting through Tuesday. We have gone ahead and issued a flood watch this evening for portions of the area given the event could start as early as late Monday morning in the western areas. It is possible that the watch could be expanded in area in future updates. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 A quick transition from quiet to active weather is expected during the near-term period as a maturing storm system translates east from the South-Central Plains. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) appears poised to develop ahead of this feature overnight across the MS Valley, then dive SE towards the Northern Gulf Coast by tomorrow morning. The MCS should be moving into a moist/unstable/sheared environment, so severe weather and heavy rainfall appear likely. The SPC expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) eastward in their Day 2 Outlook to now include all of SE AL and most of the FL Panhandle & SW GA. All modes of severe weather are possible with damaging gusts being the most probable threat. There is an even a hatched area of significant or destructive wind potential (>74 mph) outlined roughly along/east of a Dothan to DeFuniak Springs line. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is in place nearly everywhere else outside of most of the Forgotten Coast into the SE FL Big Bend. Our Eastern Timezone counties look to get impacted most during the afternoon hrs as the MCS pushes into Apalachee Bay towards the evening. A relative lull in convection takes place at the end of the period farther west, but does not seem to last long thanks to another MCS plowing across the Northern Gulf Coast. Flash flooding is also a distinct possibility, especially west of Apalachicola River where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is highlighted by the WPC. High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 80s while overnight lows return to the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms aim to move across the region through the short-term period as the aforementioned storm system slowly rotates east over the OH Valley. However, there is some uncertainty as to how convection evolves with this round as it will be contingent on how much the airmass is affected in the wake of the preceding MCS (e.g., stabilized rain- cooled air, mesoscale boundary left behind). Storm tracks are a little nebulous as well with the potential for either storms penetrating inland or staying closer to the coast. Given the slow-moving/quasi-meandering nature of this activity`s Parent Low to our north and a large fetch of moist SW flow along its trailing front, heavy rain potential will be present. A broadbrushed Marginal Risk remains in place areawide by the SPC while a widespread Slight (level 2 of 4) is apparent in the WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Looking at temperatures have highs in the 80s for highs and upper 60s to low 70s for lows. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Weather gradually improves from west to east on Wednesday, followed by a temporary quiet period on Thursday. By Friday, the next storm system takes shape over the Central US and bring a potential renewed threat for severe weather. Unsettled conditions persist through the weekend thanks to an active zonal subtropical jet and attendant lingering frontal boundary draped somewhere along the Gulf Coast states. Otherwise, expect warm and mostly muggy conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Tough forecast tonight as we await the evolution for severe weather. Until then VFR conditions will prevail, with cigs gradually lowering. The latest 0Z guidance has delayed rain and thunderstorm activity a touch, and now arriving around or between 12 and 15 UTC. All sites will endure thunderstorms, with the best chance for severe weather at KECP, KTLH, and KDHN. All modes of severe weather will be possible, with the most confidence being damaging winds due to the MCS nature. Eventually, somewhere between 21 and 00 UTC, precipitation should move out. Guidance then depicts some MVFR to IFR cigs filling in behind the precip. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Favorable boating conditions last through the overnight hours before strong to severe thunderstorms roll across the waters as soon as tomorrow morning. The main threats will be strong gusts, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Additional rounds of maritime convection are expected Tuesday through Wednesday before experiencing a lull late week. By Friday, we are looking at yet another round of potentially impactful thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 An active, wet pattern will affect the Tri-State area through mid- week, beginning tomorrow morning/afternoon. Widespread wetting rains are expected from multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather and flash flooding appear likely. Weather conditions improve from west to east on Wednesday, but that afternoon is slated to be met with very high dispersions. A temporary convective lull arrives Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 We are becoming increasingly concerned on the prospects for heavy rainfall this week from multiple rounds of thunderstorms poised to move through the Tri-State area. The latest forecast amounts between Monday and Wednesday night are 1 to 3 inches with isolated 4-8 inches possible. The greatest potential is over the Wiregrass Region towards Albany area down the western FL Panhandle. A Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall by the WPC (Day 2 Outlook) is in place over extreme Southern MS/AL into the extreme western FL Panhandle. An eastward expansion of this risk appears likely in future outlooks. Flash flooding seems like a good bet for some locations. If trends continue, they a future Flood Watch will need to be considered. The longer- term implications are riverine flooding depending on where the heaviest rain falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 70 82 72 / 80 80 90 50 Panama City 83 72 82 73 / 80 70 90 40 Dothan 80 68 81 69 / 70 80 90 30 Albany 78 67 81 69 / 60 80 100 40 Valdosta 84 69 83 71 / 60 80 90 60 Cross City 88 70 85 72 / 80 60 80 70 Apalachicola 80 73 81 75 / 80 60 90 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112-114-115-118- 127. High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ108-112. GA...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday evening for GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158. AL...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...KR MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3