396
FXUS62 KTAE 140703
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
A FEW TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAIN...

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Another morning of shower and thunderstorms is forecast as an MCS
approaches from the west. This will bring widespread rain and
thunderstorms to the region this morning before tapering off late
this morning and into the afternoon. The SPC has painted a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather from Gulf Co, FL to Lowndes
Co, GA while the rest of the service area is in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5). Observations this morning have shown that dew
points are generally around 70 in FL though a few upper 60s are
closer to the FL/GA border and mid to upper 60s are found in the
just north of there. In terms of meso-analysis, SPC shows a bit of
a roller coaster of SBCAPE riding along the coast, with SBCAPE
increasing inland north of Apalachee Bay. Shear looks good too. It
will be interesting to see the 6Z sounding and compare the data
to see how the atmosphere could interact with the environment.
Thinking generally remains the same, with damaging wind gust and
perhaps a few tornadoes being possible. In addition to the severe
threat, we`ll need to keep an eye on heavy rain with PWATs
estimated to be around 1.5 to 1.8 inches.

After the main MCS rolls through, there may be some residual
showers and storms for much of the inland and western areas.
Guidance gets a bit messy in the evening to overnight hours either
keeping us dry or bringing an additional round of showers and
storms from about Lowndes Co, GA to about Gulf Co, FL. Opted to
keep some higher pops in this area from the NBM to account for
this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

For the start of this term, we will begin transitioning (briefly)
into a post-frontal environment. The Southeast Big Bend will
likely have lingering showers and a few thunderstorms during the
morning hours before clearing out during the afternoon. PoPs for
Wednesday range around 30%-60% during the late morning into
afternoon hours for the Southeast Big Bend. The cold front will
make its way through the region from a northwest to southeast
trajectory, during the evening hours on Wednesday into the night.
During the day on Thursday, upper level ridging will build to the
west behind the frontal passage. This ridge will keep us dry and
quiet for Thursday, with slightly warmer temperatures.
Temperatures for the short term will have highs in the upper 80s
to near 90 on Wednesday and upper 80s/low 90s on Thursday. The
overnight lows will be in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper-level trough approaches on Friday that will bring our
next chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The
environmental conditions would suggest that some storms may be
strong to severe with gusty winds being the main concern, a
tornado or two, and hail; along with heavy rainfall will also be
of concern. The WPC has highlighted Friday (Day 4 ERO) in a Slight
risk (2 of 4) for our central time zone counties, and a Marginal
risk (1 of 4) for areas to the east, excluding the southeast Big
Bend. The heavy rain threat extends into Saturday where the entire
CWA is highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.
Light showers and thunderstorms, lingering behind from Friday-
Saturday will be possible on Sunday ahead of the next front
clearing things out by Monday. It appears that deep-layer ridging
will return for the start of the work week, keeping us high and
dry heading into the extended forecast.

PoPs for Friday range between 40 and 70 percent, with the higher
values over our SE Alabama counties. Heading into Saturday, the
rain travels east, keeping the highest chances along the I-10/I-75
corridor with PoPs around 70%. Sunday`s chances will be highest
for the southeast Big Bend, but PoPs are about 40%-50%.

Temperatures for the long term will mainly have highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s and morning lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The forecast mostly remains on track as MVFR to IFR cigs have
held while an MCS approaches from the west. This system is
expected to enter the region shortly and then race through during
the early morning hours. Severe weather will possible with this,
especially for KECP and KTLH. Behind the MCS, gusty southwest
winds and improving cigs are forecast. There could be some
residual showers and thunderstorms that try to pop up behind it,
but confidence is too low to add anything like that this far out.
Instead, hinted at the lowering of cigs sometime after 0Z to 03Z
Wed as confidence is slightly higher in that forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into our marine zones this
morning with the potential for strong gusty winds, waterspouts,
and frequent lightning. Multiple rounds of storms are expected
through the day today. Outside of storms, gusty winds are still
likely as a cold front eventually approaches by Wednesday night.
Advisory level conditions are possible, hence a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect this morning through tonight.

Favorable boating conditions are expected to return briefly for
Thursday before our next system on Friday through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Wet weather continues this morning, with rain and tstorms moving
in from the west. This cluster of storms is expected to organize
some more, potentially causing severe weather. The best chances
for severe weather are highlighted in the Slight Risk, which
starts at about Gulf Co, FL and cuts up towards Lowndes Co, GA.
Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible,
in addition to heavy rain. Tomorrow, conditions should start to
dry out and then hold through Thursday. High dispersions are
forecast during this time, which will be the only fire weather
concern. Wet weather looks to return Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The Flood Watch is still in effect through this evening for
mainly the FL counties, except Dixie county. Seminole and Decatur
counties in Georgia are also included. The Florida Big Bend is
highlighted in a Slight Risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall today
(Tuesday) with the rest of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (1 of 4).
For the rest of these storms, 2-3 inches are possible with
isolated higher amounts.

Heavy rain chances return heading into the weekend on Friday with
another Slight Risk for our western counties, and a marginal risk
for our eastern counties. The rain chances continue into Saturday
with a Marginal risk for the entire CWA. For the weekend storms,
QPF amounts are about 1-2 inches, however isolated higher amounts
will be possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  70  88  67 /  70  50  10   0
Panama City   81  72  84  70 /  80  30  10   0
Dothan        82  68  86  63 /  70  20   0   0
Albany        81  68  85  63 /  80  30  10   0
Valdosta      82  69  87  66 /  80  60  20   0
Cross City    85  69  85  67 /  80  80  60  10
Apalachicola  80  73  84  72 /  80  50  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-
     114-115-118-127-128.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ155-156.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Wednesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery