Area Forecast Discussion
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745
FXUS62 KTAE 260001
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
801 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As of 00z, isolated showers were mainly along the coastal areas of
the Florida Panhandle. Deeper moisture is located just south of
the area in association with a weak trough, and models indicate
that this airmass will move northward overnight. Some increase in
convective coverage is expected before daybreak across the coastal
waters and portions of the panhandle as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Operational model guidance remains consistent with progressing the
TUTT low currently located over the northern Gulf of Mexico westward
tomorrow. This will yield southerly flow across the eastern Gulf
region tomorrow, allowing deep layer moisture to advect northward
across much of the region. PWATs across the tri-state region will
approach the 2" mark tomorrow. This, along with moderate instability
will allow for more widespread coverage of convection across the
region. As a result, the POP grids reflect widespread Chc POPs
across the region with Likely POPs across the western third of the
forecast area.

Wednesday, deep layer ridging will begin to build back into the area
as the Bermuda High backs into the area once again. This will mark a
return to the normal summertime pattern. Though there are some
discrepancies from model to model regarding timing and magnitude,
the general consensus is that drier mid/upper level air will filter
into the region once again which would somewhat limit convective
coverage across the region. As a result, POPs will generally run 20-
30% lower than on Tuesday, with the best chances being confined to
western portions of the forecast area.

Afternoon highs will run in the upper 80s to mid 90s from south to
north across the region, with lows in the mid 70s inland and upper
70s near the coast. Heat indices will range in the upper 90s to
lower 100s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Deep layer high pressure will be in place through the long term
period with a seasonably moist airmass underneath. This will yield
typical summertime thunderstorm chances associated with the sea-
breeze across the tri-state region each afternoon and evening.
Afternoon highs will run just above seasonal normals - in the mid to
upper 90s, with overnight lows in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s
near coastal locales.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Additional moisture is expected to move into the area overnight with
an increase in convective coverage beginning along the coast
around dawn and spreading inland during the day on Tuesday.
otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of
convection.

.MARINE...

Southerly winds of 15 knots or less will persist through the next
several days, resulting in seas of 2 to 3 feet. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage across coastal waters
overnight and through Tuesday before becoming more isolated
Wednesday through the end of the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersion values across inland portions of the Tri-
state region on Tuesday, there are no other fire weather concerns
for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

No widespread flooding concerns are anticipated through the period.
However, isolated/localized flooding can`t be ruled out through
mid-week (especially Tuesday) with increased coverage of showers
and thunderstorms and weak steering flow in place across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  92  75  93  75 /  20  50  10  20   0
Panama City   79  89  80  88  79 /  50  70  40  20   0
Dothan        74  92  74  93  74 /  10  70  20  40  10
Albany        74  95  74  94  74 /   0  40  10  30  10
Valdosta      73  94  73  94  74 /  10  40  10  20   0
Cross City    74  92  74  94  75 /  20  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  79  88  78  89  78 /  40  40  20  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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