Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 301416
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1016 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Clouds continue to persist across parts of the CWA this morning,
mainly closer to the coast. Expect clouds to increase across the
remainder of the area throughout the day. Hi-res models are
consistent with pegging the highest PoPs across the far eastern
portion of the area, thus the only change to the PoP forecast was
to bring the slight chance a little further westward.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [634 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western
half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast. Surface
low pressure was centered across the lower MS Valley with a squall
line stretching from east Texas to southwest Arkansas. Closer to
home, a moist boundary layer coupled with light winds and mostly
clear skies has led to scattered areas of fog this morning,
particularly across the Florida panhandle. This fog is expected by
the mid-morning hours with another warm day expected with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. Convective activity is
expected to be mostly minimal today, but some of the CAMs do show
some scattered convection across the eastern areas this afternoon in
association with some surface convergence. The ensemble of CAMs did
an excellent job yesterday, and the official forecast followed it
closely today, resulting in 20-30 percent chances of thunderstorms
near and east of a line from Albany to Cross City this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will flatten to zonal flow on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach Sunday and stall over or just north of
of our CWA by late Monday. Best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be in close proximity of the frontal boundary.
Thus, PoPs both days will be tapered chance (30-40%) north to
slight chance (20%) south. Above seasonal temps will continue with
highs around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A deep trough will develop east of the Plains as an upper low
drops southward from Ontario Tuesday into the mid-Atlantic states
Friday through Saturday. This will push the surface front well to
our south and east by late Wednesday and send a secondary dry cold
front through the local region Thursday night/early Friday. PoPs
will be 30-40% Tuesday and tapered 20-40% northwest to southeast
Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near or just below seasonal levels.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Sunday] A variety of conditions will exist through
the mid-morning hours depending on the location, ranging from
VFR in some places to VLIFR in others. The ECP terminal is likely
to see the worst conditions continuing with VLIFR through around
13-14z expected. A return to VFR areawide is expected by around
14-15z. Isolated to scattered afternoon convection is possible
around VLD.


.MARINE...

Light southerly winds will continue across the local waters
through Monday. Despite the light winds, seas will increase to
the 2 to 4 feet range Sunday as longer period swell develops in
the long southerly fetch. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front approaches and
pushes through the waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  69  90  66  90 /  10   0  20  20  30
Panama City   81  72  82  69  83 /   0  10  20  10  20
Dothan        88  68  87  67  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
Albany        90  68  89  68  89 /  20  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      91  69  90  68  91 /  40  20  30  30  30
Cross City    90  68  89  66  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  82  70  83 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fieux
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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