Area Forecast Discussion
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031
FXUS62 KTAE 091715
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1215 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Wind
gusts up to 18kts are possible through the afternoon, but will
subside by this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1019 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The high level cloudiness along the Gulf coast and portions of the
southeast CONUS early this morning will gradually shift further
south and east as the broad upper trough continues to deepen. At the
surface, high pressure and a cooler drier airmass will filter in on
occasional breezy northerly winds. Dew points will drop into the
upper teens to around 20 this afternoon and despite skies becoming
mostly sunny, temperatures will struggle to reach the lower to mid
50s most areas.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The rather high-amplitude, upper-tropospheric flow of the past
several days will become zonal and fast-paced this weekend. The
arctic airmass invading the Southeast will quickly modify after
culminating in a widespread light freeze late tonight, with lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s across the normally colder portions of
our forecast area. This forecast is weighted more heavily toward the
MOS consensus. The very dry airmass might argue for even colder
temperatures, but there is some concern that the surface high will
be too far to our north for the surface winds to become completely
calm.

Despite plenty of sun, relatively shallow vertical mixing and the
low sun angle will prevent temperatures from reaching the 60s on
Saturday. By late Saturday night and early Sunday the NWP models
forecast increasing moisture and lift along the lower-level
isentropic surfaces. This will keep temperatures above freezing, and
will also lead to increasing clouds throughout the day on Sunday.
There is even a slight chance of light rain across the FL Panhandle
late Sunday. In this warm advection pattern high temperatures will
range from the mid 60s (north) to lower 70s (south).


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The prevailing upper-tropospheric flow will begin the week in a
zonal fashion, but by mid to late week a fairly high-amplitude
trough will develop over the eastern CONUS. A weak short wave trough
and accompanying surface cold front will translate eastward across
the eastern CONUS Monday. The front will stall just north and west
of our forecast area, and there appears to be enough moisture and
lift for a chance of rain (20-40%) through Wednesday, though the
timing of the rain will likely hinge upon subtle upper level troughs
which can not be forecast this far out in time. A surface cold
front will pass through our forecast area on Thursday, bringing
clearing skies and cooler temperature for the end of the week.
Unlike the arctic intrusion occurring now, the core of next week`s
cold air will likely remain to our north.


.MARINE...

Advisory conditions are likely today as a strong high pressure
system builds across the Southeast. Winds and seas will subside
slightly tonight, but will remain elevated through Saturday night as
they veer from north to east. The highest winds and seas will occur
during the late night and early morning hours. Winds will weaken and
become south early next week as the high pressure system moves east
off the Southeast coast.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A very dry airmass will move into the area today through Saturday
with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20s to
around 30. Additionally, northerly winds may approach 15 mph across
the area later this morning and afternoon. However, red flag
conditions are not expected due to high fuel moisture from recent
heavy rains. A gradual increase in relative humidity is expected
after Saturday.


.HYDROLOGY...

The Choctawhatchee River at Carryville was in the process of a
broad crest at minor flood stage, which will last into Saturday.
Otherwise, while several rivers have risen rather sharply from
the recent heavy rains, we do not expect any more forecast points
to go into flood.

The global models disagree on QPF amounts for next week. The 00 UTC
GFS and CMC forecast light amounts as the forcing from next week`s
disturbances remain weak and unfocused. The 00 UTC ECMWF, on the
other hand, has a band of 2 to 4 inches just north and west of
our forecast area, with an inch or so across the northwest half of
our forecast area. It`s too early to speculate on which solution
is "best", but we will monitor this closely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   55  29  58  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  35  56  44  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        50  28  53  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  29  54  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      54  28  57  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    58  31  62  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  56  35  58  47  68 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Fournier



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