Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 180751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging will continue to influence the weather across the
tri-state region today as hot temperatures and lower coverage of
showers and thunderstorms are expected. The 00z TAE sounding
indicated the presence of drier air through the column, which was
responsible for suppressing convection yesterday afternoon. Drier
air remains evident across most of the region on water vapor
imagery at this hour, though an increase in mid-level moisture was
observed across the eastern Big Bend this evening as convection
over the northern FL peninsula diminished. Somewhat similar
conditions are expected today. Weak northwesterly flow around the
periphery of the high will keep the sea-breeze pinned to the coast
through much of the day, and drier air present across most of the
region will supress convective coverage. POPs will generally
range from 30-40% across the Florida panhandle, with lower chances
further north. The best chances for showers and storms will exist
across the eastern Big Bend, where more moisture is present.
Afternoon highs today are expected to reach the mid 90s once again
across much of the region with heat indicies rising into the 100
to 105 range.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels our forecast area will be under a very narrow
ridge, squeezed by a mid latitude trough to our north and a slow-
moving TUTT low drifting westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
At the surface the pressure pattern will be weak, with a trough
along the Piedmont and the subtropical ridge just to the south.

The 1000-700 mean wind will be from the NW at 5 to 10 KT on
Saturday, which will delay the inland movement of the NW FL sea
breeze front until mid afternoon, and prevent the front from
reaching the Dothan and Albany areas by the time of peak CAPE.
Additionally, a region of relatively warm, dry mid-tropospheric
air (currently over the Midwest) will reach the FL Panhandle and
SW GA Saturday, limiting updrafts and deep moist convection. Thus
the highest PoPs (50%) will be around Tallahassee, Valdosta, and
Cross City. Elsewhere PoPs will be 20 to 30%. On Sunday the
1000-700 mb mean wind will become light SE, favoring an earlier
start to the daily sea breeze. PoPs will generally be in the 30 to
50% range, and highest in the FL Panhandle. It will remain hot
and muggy with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the 70s. Maximum
heat index values will be in the 100 to 105 range.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

An unusually strong 500 mb ridge will be the dominant synoptic
feature across much of the Southeast through mid week, followed by
the development of a trough over much of the eastern CONUS. In the
absence of synoptic scale forcing in our region, as usual, deep
moist convection will be most likely along the sea/land breeze
fronts and outflow boundaries. PoPs will be in the 30-50% range,
highest (inland) during the afternoon and evening hours. High
temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s, lows in the 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions expected through the period outside of any TSRA. TS
coverage is expected to be ISO to SCT once again this afternoon,
keeping confidence limited in any activity directly affecting any
terminals. VLD, TLH and ECP have the highest chances to observe TS
after 18z. Westerly winds generally below 10 kts at all sites
through the period.



Light winds and low seas will continue through the weekend as the
coastal waters remain near a high pressure ridge.



Hazardous fire weather conditions not expected through much of the
next week as RH`s remain above critical levels. Chances for
scattered showers and storms yielding wetting rains this afternoon,
mainly across the Florida Panhandle.



Area rivers were below "action stage" and will remain so through
this weekend. Organized heavy rain is unlikely.



Tallahassee   96  76  93  75  94 /  40  30  50  10  30
Panama City   93  79  90  78  91 /  30  20  30  10  30
Dothan        93  74  93  74  94 /  20  20  20  10  30
Albany        95  75  94  74  94 /  20  20  20  10  30
Valdosta      97  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  50  10  40
Cross City    93  75  92  74  93 /  60  20  50  10  30
Apalachicola  94  78  90  77  90 /  40  20  40  10  20






NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
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