Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 300717
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
317 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Mid level longwave trough stretches across the eastern CONUS
southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A shortwave trough is
moving southward across TX/LA area and will deepen the southern end
of the trough today and increase mid level support and large scale
lift across the tri state area. At the surface a weak trough will
remain across our western sections with a quasistationary front
meandering just north of the CWA in central AL/GA.

Showers are ongoing in the northern Gulf and are expected to
increase and affect our western FL panhandle counties in
the next hour or so. The seabreeze will activate fairly quickly
this morning given the aforementioned conditions and expected
PWATs surging above 2 inches. CAPE values are on the order of 1500
J/kg today given the amount of cloud cover and lack of insolation
expected today.

Local Hi res models depict two zones of convection initiation
occurring: 1) The typical seabreeze this morning moving northward
with time and 2) At the edge of the higher moisture ahead of the
front across our AL and western GA counties which will slowly move
eastward. A meeting in the middle of these two areas would put the
zone of heavier rainfall chances in the northern row of FL counties
northward to a Dothan to Albany line and eastward. The most
efficient convection will be able to produce 1-2 inches rainfall
fairly quickly.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The upper level trough and surface front in place across parts of
Alabama and Georgia at the beginning of the period will gradually
retreat northward as a ridge builds along the Gulf Coast. However,
very moist air will remain in place across our area, with PWAT
values of 2" or greater. With CAPE building to 1500-2000 J/kg and
sea breeze forcing sparking convection, there should be good
coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
early evening across much of our area.

Precipitation will be most likely across northern FL and far
southern GA, where the greatest moisture will be located. Highs
will range from the mid 80s along the coast to lower 90s in AL/GA
on Friday, with Saturday expected to be a couple degrees warmer
across our area due to slightly less coverage of showers/storms.
Lows will be in the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s expected at
coastal locations.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

A typical summertime pattern will remain in place throughout this
period as an upper ridge persists over the southeastern CONUS and
the Gulf of Mexico. Rich moisture and decent instability will
remain in place over our area, with PWAT values remaining near 2"
and CAPE generally between 1000-2000 J/kg. Therefore, the sea
breeze should continue to provide sufficient forcing for scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day, with chances maximized during
each afternoon and early evening. Seasonably hot temperatures will
persist, with inland highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the
mid 70s. Coastal regions will continue to see highs in the upper
80s and lows in the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

Scattered showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage
overnight in the Gulf waters then spread inland across our western
FL counties early in the morning. The seabreeze will initiate by mid
morning with a fairly wet day across the tri state region as PWATs
will be from 1.8-2.3 inches with increased moisture in the column
and mid level support from a S/W trough upstream. MVFR to high IFR
can be expected underneath any heavier shower or storm impacting the
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

South to southwest winds generally ranging from 10 to 15 knots
will persist for the next several days, resulting in seas of 2
feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wet soils and another day of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will preclude any fire weather concerns over the next
few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days, becoming more isolated towards late weekend and
early next week. Isolated areas of up to 2 inches of rainfall will
be possible over the coming days. No widespread flood concerns are
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  74  90  74  91 /  60  30  60  20  40
Panama City   83  78  86  77  86 /  60  40  50  20  30
Dothan        88  73  89  73  92 /  50  30  40  20  40
Albany        89  73  90  73  93 /  60  40  40  10  30
Valdosta      89  73  90  73  91 /  60  30  60  20  40
Cross City    92  75  92  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
Apalachicola  85  78  89  78  87 /  50  40  60  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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