Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 020725
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The remnants of Erika continue to move inland over the Big Bend. A
plume of tropical moisture will remain in place over the eastern
half of the area today, so there is a sharp PoP gradient similar to
Tuesday. PoPs will range from 20% in southeast Alabama to 60% in
south central Georgia and the Big Bend. Highs today will be in the
upper 80s and lower 90s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Most of the tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Erika
will have moved to our east by Thursday. PoPs will be highest (40%)
mainly over our Florida zones due to the sea breeze. On Friday,
instability will increase as an upper trough digs down into the Tri-
state region. Will show uniform PoPs at 40% which is around climo
for early September. Temps will also be above seasonal levels with
highs in the lower to mid 90s both days.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The 00z GFS and latest ECMWF continue to show a broad area of lower
500 mb heights over our region through Monday before higher pressure
and a drier airmass build in by Wednesday. PoPs will be around to
slightly above average (40-50%) through Tuesday with below seasonal
Pops on Wednesday (30%). Temps will be near average, with lows in
the 70s and highs near 90.
[Through 12z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail with the
exception of a few hours of MVF due to fog at VLD this morning.
Greatest chance of rain will be at VLD, TLH and ABY today.
The weak low center that was once associated with Erika is moving
inland along the Wakulla County coast early this Wednesday morning
and winds and seas have diminished below headline criteria across
Apalachee Bay. Winds and seas will be quite low through the
remainder of the week and the upcoming holiday weekend.
There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.
The heaviest and most organized rain is expected across portions of
the FL Big Bend from this evening through Wednesday. Rain amounts
will be around an inch east and south of Tallahassee, and less than
a quarter of an inch elsewhere. Isolated rain amounts up to 4 inches
are possible, which could cause localized flooding if it occurs in
the wrong place (i.e. urban areas, small streams, etc.). Our rivers
were all below their local action stages, and the latest hydrologic
ensembles forecast this to continue for the next several days.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 90 74 94 73 94 / 50 30 40 30 40
Panama City 87 77 89 75 89 / 30 10 40 20 40
Dothan 93 73 93 71 93 / 20 10 40 20 40
Albany 90 74 94 72 94 / 40 10 30 20 40
Valdosta 88 73 93 72 94 / 60 30 40 30 40
Cross City 90 74 92 73 92 / 40 30 40 30 40
Apalachicola 89 77 91 76 90 / 30 20 40 30 40