Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 192004
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the east. Plenty
of moisture in the boundary layer, dry air aloft and calm or light
winds should lead to another night of low level cloudiness and fog
development. No reason to believe that the fog won`t become dense
in some locations. Lows will be around 60.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Well above average temperatures will continue through the short term
with deep layer southerly to southwesterly flow. A few showers are
possible, mainly on Tuesday and Tuesday night, but upper level
ridging will keep most of the forcing for rainfall north and west of
the area. Thus, shower chances appear to be 30 percent or less. High
temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 80s, except upper 70s
along the coast. These temperatures are around 15 degrees above
average for this time of year. Mild overnight lows mainly in the 60s
are expected, which are 15-20 degrees above average.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the local weather
pattern, keeping most of the active weather to our north and west.
This is expected to result in rather stagnant weather through the
long term with continued well above average temperatures. A weak
front may arrive around Sunday with shower chances at around 20-40
percent.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 18z Tuesday] MVFR cigs continue at TLH and ABY but should
improve to VFR by 19z. Look for another round of IFR-LIFR
conditions to develop overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will
be light through the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...

East to south winds will dominate over the next few days with wind
speeds of 10-15 knots. Brief periods of exercise caution are
possible, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of fog are
possible near the coast tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are anticipated due to RH values remaining
well above critical thresholds for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While there are low end chances of precipitation in the forecast,
rainfall amounts over the next few days will be minimal. The
Choctawhatchee River at Bruce continues to remain in minor flood,
but it is falling and should fall into action stage on Tuesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  83  64  84  61 /   0  20  20  10  10
Panama City   63  78  66  79  65 /   0  30  30  10   0
Dothan        61  82  65  83  62 /   0  30  30  20  10
Albany        61  82  65  83  62 /   0  20  20  20  10
Valdosta      62  83  65  84  63 /   0  20  20  10   0
Cross City    63  85  63  85  60 /   0  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  77  65  77  64 /   0  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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