Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 251931
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
331 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Tranquil weather will continue in the near term dominated by high
pressure ridging both at the surface and aloft. Surface winds will
be from the southwest early this evening switching to more southerly
as an upstream storm system moves into the southern Plains. Patchy
light fog will be possible closer to dawn across portions of SE
Alabama and SW Georgia where winds are expected to become calm. Lows
will bottom out in the upper 50s and to lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The region will be between a developing storm system across the
Lower Mississippi River Valley and a ridge of high pressure east
of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Moderate southerly flow
will continue to return more moisture to the region. It will also
be warmer with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s over
The next storm system to affect the region on Thursday will move
across the Tennessee River Valley in the morning hours. There
still is some disagreement with how much forcing will be available
on the southern end of the system across our region, but the trend
in the model guidance over the past 24 hours has been for a weaker
system. As a result, have only shown higher PoPs across the
northwestern portions of the forecast area with rain chances less
than 10 percent along and SE of a line from TLH to VLD.
It looks now as though the frontal boundary will not clear the
forecast area and will then begin lifting back to the north
across the Mid South on Thursday night. Thus, expect a warm and
humid airmass to remain in place across the region heading into
the long term period.
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
At the start of the period, a large ridge at the surface and aloft
will be building east of the Florida Peninsula in the Western
Atlantic. With this ridge there, moderate southerly flow is
expected through the weekend, bringing a much more moist and humid
airmass than has been seen so far this season to the region. This
will result in not only higher afternoon temperatures, but also
heat indicies starting to push the lower to mid 90s on Saturday
and Sunday afternoons. It`s not out of the question an isolated
shower or two occurring on Saturday or Sunday afternoon with the
afternoon sea breeze either.
The next real impact weather will be by Monday as a large storm
system moves eastward across the Central CONUS. Model guidance
continues to be split on the intensity of this system with the
latest 25/12 Euro preferring a weakening system approaching the
area, while the 25/12z GFS surges the cold front quickly across
the region. Climatology would seem to be more supportive of the
Euro solution. For now, will favor the Euro solution, as it would
be uncharacteristic to see a strong cold frontal passage (and
associated severe weather threat) in early May this far south.
Nevertheless, rain chances on Monday will be in the 50 percent
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...
Ridging will dominate this TAF period. VFR the rest of the day into
this evening. Overnight towards dawn, light fog will be possible
across DHN and ABY with vsbys down to MVFR category. Fog should burn
off rather quickly with a return to VFR everywhere by mid morning.
Winds will increase to cautionary conditions on Wednesday evening
ahead of a frontal system. This system will weaken and dissipate
north of the marine area on Thursday night. High pressure off the
Florida Peninsula will keep southerly flow in place through the
weekend, which will be at cautionary levels late Saturday and
potentially advisory levels by Sunday.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through the remainder of the week, precluding any red flag
conditions. A brief period of elevated dispersions (60 to 70 values)
will be possible across portions of the region on Wednesday
afternoon. High dispersions are possible across the eastern half of
the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia on Thursday
The storm system on Thursday should deliver less than a half inch
of rain - and only then across the northwestern portion of the
region. Considerable uncertainty with the next system on Monday
makes it difficult to assess any flood risk for early next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 56 85 64 85 68 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 65 79 69 82 71 / 0 0 10 30 10
Dothan 60 85 65 83 69 / 0 0 10 60 10
Albany 58 85 63 83 68 / 0 0 10 50 10
Valdosta 55 87 62 88 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 56 83 62 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 61 78 70 80 72 / 0 0 10 10 10