Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 210029
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS WERE DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE HEADED OUR
WAY BY TOMORROW. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING, EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING AT VLD PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [422 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

WE WILL FINALLY SEE A SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE WET UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS THE JET STREAM
PULLS SEVERAL IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.


.MARINE...

EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. STARTING TUESDAY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH 2
TO 3 FT SEAS. TUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THESE DRIER
CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. BRUCE IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO
PREDICTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK AT
DAWSON. INCREASED RELEASES FROM THE WOODRUFF DAM WILL RESULT IN THE
APALACHICOLA RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT BLOUNTSTOWN TONIGHT. WITH
THE EXPECTED RELEASES TO PEAK NEAR 60KCFS, THE RIVER LEVEL AT
BLOUNTSTOWN WILL BE NEAR 19 FEET BY WEDNESDAY, STILL IN THE MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   62  82  57  85  64 /  20   0  10  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  76  63  79  67 /  10   0  10  10  30
DOTHAN        56  77  56  82  61 /  10   0  10  10  20
ALBANY        58  78  55  83  60 /  10   0  10  10  20
VALDOSTA      62  79  56  84  62 /  20   0  10  10  20
CROSS CITY    63  82  58  86  65 /  20   0  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  66  79  63  82  68 /  20   0  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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