Area Forecast Discussion
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069
FXUS62 KTAE 270516
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1216 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

VFR conditions are expected this TAF cycle. In the late morning
hours low clouds will develop. A few showers are possible in
Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle in the
afternoon/evening timeframe.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [827 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure and the accompanying very dry airmass will
slowly move off to the east overnight. With the exception of some
high level clouds moving in from the west, skies will be clear.
Min temps will be in the lower to mid 40s inland areas and mid to
upper 50s along the panhandle coast.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A few weak shortwaves will move through the mostly zonal pattern
aloft of the eastern CONUS Monday. This will cause a disturbed
pattern, bringing an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms
mostly to our northwest. Chances locally will be around 20-30% in SE
AL and 20% in the Ern FL Big Bend with max temperatures will be in
the mid 70s to low 80s. The UL pattern will amplify Tuesday as a low
swings from the southwestern CONUS Tuesday morning and into the
Plains by Tuesday night. This will amplify the ridge over the
southeast and should keep convection to our north, save for a slight
chance (20%) in the morning in SE AL. As high pressure builds, we`ll
see clearing skies and highs rising into the 80s across the area.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The UL low will lift from the Plains into the Ohio Valley by
Wednesday night, steering a potent cold front across the eastern
CONUS. MLCAPE ahead of the front will increase to around 500-800
J/kg and 0-6 km shear will increase to 40-50 kts over the local
area as the front moves in, so, there could be some isolated
severe winds (around 50-60 MPH) with these thunderstorms. The
front should exit the area Thursday, with cooler, more normal
conditions in its wake (i.e. highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and
lows in the 40s).


.MARINE...

Another round of 15 to 20 knot winds are expected tonight, but
will lower throughout the day Monday and remain below 15 knots
through mid-week. Early Thursday morning, as a cold front enters
our coastal waters, winds from the north will surge, returning to
cautionary levels and possibly even advisory levels.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Moderate transport winds, coupled with high mixing heights, may
drive daytime dispersion values above 75 across portions of the area
on Monday. Otherwise, much higher RH values and warmer temperatures,
along with slight rain chances, will return to the region Monday and
Tuesday.


.HYDROLOGY...

The Choctawhatchee River has crested in action stage at Caryville
and will continue rise through action stage near Bruce over the
next couple days, cresting about a foot below flood stage.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through Thursday, but no widespread heavy rain is anticipated.
Therefore, no flooding is expected for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   77  59  83  61  82 /  10  10  10   0  10
Panama City   74  63  76  65  75 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        75  59  82  63  80 /  30  20  10  10  20
Albany        78  59  84  62  81 /  10  20  10   0  20
Valdosta      80  60  84  62  83 /  20  20  10   0  10
Cross City    81  61  84  62  82 /  10  10  10   0  10
Apalachicola  72  63  75  64  76 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...McDermott
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Moore



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