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000
FXUS62 KTAE 281348
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
948 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
With the centered subtropical ridge to the southeast and a weak
trough to the west, the local area is situated in a region of
deep and moist onshore flow. This is reflected in the KTAE 12Z
sounding, with PWAT of nearly 2 inches. With no notable dry
layers, and low-level southeasterly flow, conditions are favorable
for plenty of daytime convection across much of the region. The
local seabreeze climatology favors the I-10 corridor, especially
from Tallahassee westward, and this is supported by most of the
numerical guidance. Main limiting factor early in the day will be
extensive mid-level cloud cover along the coast into the Big Bend.
However, this should diminish by around midday, allowing for
enough heating to trigger convection. Overall, no significant
changes to previous wet forecast. However, have lowered PoPs
slightly over the eastern Big Bend, which is slightly less favored
for precip in this low-level flow regime.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [652 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

Deep layer moisture will increase tonight through Thursday and
continue across the region through Friday. PWAT values are forecast
to be over 2.0" throughout the period and as high as 2.2" Thursday
afternoon. This combined with daytime heating and sea breeze
interaction will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. PoPs Thursday will mostly be in the likely category (60-
70%) and 50-60% on Friday. Temps Thursday will be held below
seasonal levels (lower 80s west to mid and upper 80s elsewhere) and
near normal Friday (around 90). Lows in the lower to mid 70s both
nights.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

As an upper level trough sweeps eastward from the Central Plains,
the deep moisture over the region will lift off to the northeast
over the weekend. While the airmass will be somewhat drier, it will
still be moist enough for our typical afternoon summertime
thunderstorms with PoPs around 40-50% with near seasonal
temperatures.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

IFR restrictions have only made it to VLD this morning, with all
other terminals under VFR. A few sprinkles may move over TLH and
ECP over the next few hours, but as of now these radar returns
were not reaching the ground. VFR will prevail through the day
outside of storms, with the best chance for afternoon storms at
ECP, TLH, and VLD.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will be at generally low summertime levels through
the next several days. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
with above average rain chances forecast. Dispersion indices are
expected to be a bit low in and around areas where rain is more
widespread as mixing heights will be capped.


.HYDROLOGY...

The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce will crest on Wednesday just
below flood stage. All other rives are well below flood stage.

Over the next couple of days, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially in the afternoon and
evening. Localized rainfall amounts could briefly cause some minor
flooding in urbanized areas, however, no significant flooding is
anticipated through the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   87  74  87  73  89 /  70  40  70  30  60
Panama City   84  76  83  76  86 /  50  50  70  30  50
Dothan        87  73  82  72  86 /  50  30  70  40  60
Albany        88  73  85  73  87 /  30  30  70  40  60
Valdosta      86  73  88  72  89 /  50  30  70  30  60
Cross City    89  73  89  73  90 /  50  40  60  20  50
Apalachicola  85  77  84  76  86 /  50  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey