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000
FXUS62 KTAE 171044
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
644 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout this period as mid-high
level clouds gradually decrease from northwest to southeast across
our area. Northeasterly winds will remain around 10 knots today,
with some gusts around 15 knots. Winds will subside slightly
around sunset, with northeasterly winds from 5-10 knots expected
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A significantly drier and cooler airmass continues to filter
southeastward into our area as a cold front continues to push
southeast across the FL Peninsula. While some lingering moisture at
mid-upper levels will result in mostly cloudy skies across the FL
Big Bend and south central GA through this morning, no rainfall is
expected as high pressure continues to build across our area and
PWAT values drop well below 1". Although cloud cover will continue
to decrease from northwest to southeast throughout the day, cool air
advection will prevent temperatures from rising quickly. After
morning lows ranging from the 50s NW to 60s SE, highs are only
expected to reach the mid 70s across our area this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

High pressure will be centered over the Eastern U.S. for the next
few days. POPs will be very low (near zero) on Wednesday and
Thursday. Skies will be mostly sunny/clear as high pressure
remains in place. Lows will be in the 50s on Tuesday night and in
the 50s and lower 60s on Wednesday night. Highs will be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Wednesday. Highs will be in the low to
mid 80s on Thursday.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be over the region. At the
surface high pressure will be over the Eastern U.S. Low level
moisture will increase on Sunday as a low develops near Arkansas.
POPs will be low under (20 percent) until moisture increases on
Sunday. Sunday and Monday POPs will be slightly higher at 20 to 30
percent. Highs will be in the 80s and lows will be in the 60s.


.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until Thursday morning. Winds
up to 20 knots are expected until Thursday morning and possibly
longer as winds will remain elevated until Sunday. Rain chances
will be fairly low this week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Although drier air will continue to move into our area early this
week behind a cold front, no fire weather concerns are anticipated
as minimum RH values remain in the 40-50% range throughout this
week.


.HYDROLOGY...

River levels remain fairly low at this time. Rain totals over the
next week are forecast to be less than one inch. No flooding
concerns.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  54  81  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  58  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        75  50  78  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  49  77  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      74  53  78  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    76  59  82  63  85 /  10   0  10   0  10
Apalachicola  77  60  81  64  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...McD