Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 091026
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
626 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
[Through 12Z Saturday] LIFR conditions just east of ABY and VLD have
settled in this morning, but have not yet materialized at the
terminals themselves. If they do develop, these conditions should be
brief, improving to VFR by around 14Z. Showers will be possible this
afternoon-evening at TLH and VLD. Overnight, ceilings and
visibilities may lower once again, most likely near ABY, VLD, and
.Prev Discussion [312 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
An upper level +PV anomaly over the southern Plains can be seen in
the IR and water vapor imagery. This impulse will swing
southeastward today toward the ArkLaTex and begin to push a surface
cold front towards the southeastern states. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon out ahead of it as low
level flow becomes more southeasterly and begins to return Gulf
moisture to the area. These storms are most likely to occur in north
Florida and south-central Georgia, where moisture will be highest.
Highs will peak in the low to mid 80s once again today.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Models are generally in good agreement regarding the evolution of
the synoptic pattern through the weekend. The shortwave trough
over the Plains this morning will pass through the Southeast,
cutting off over the western Atlantic on Sunday. At the surface,
the result will be the passage of a cold front on Saturday. Expect
a northeast to southwest PoP gradient, with the highest PoPs
(~40-50%) north and east of a line from Blakely through Cross
Highs on Saturday will range from the low 80s (NE) to the mid 80s
further south across Florida. Lows will likely fall to the upper
50s to low 60s behind the front on Saturday night. On Sunday,
highs will be slower to rebound as a fair amount of cloud cover is
expected across parts of south Georgia and southeast Alabama as
northeast flow pumps moisture into the region. Across Florida,
expect highs around 80 degrees on Sunday.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Expect the aforementioned cutoff low to be absorbed into the
northern stream flow by mid-week as another shortwave trough
moves through the Southeast. In its wake, a broad northern stream
trough will cover much of the CONUS. At the surface, dry weather
will continue with only a slight chance of rain with the front
on Tues/Wed. Temperatures will generally be around seasonal
averages, possibly a degree or so cooler on both ends.
A weak easterly surge will keep winds around cautionary levels
this morning (primarily east of Apalachicola), before weakening
early this afternoon. Thereafter, winds and seas will be
relatively low. Expect winds below 15 kts and seas below 2 feet
over the next several days.
Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through
the period. Dispersions will be low today with very light transport
winds. Patchy fog and low ceilings are expected Friday and Saturday
Rivers remain well below action stages and with minimal rainfall
expected over the next few days, there are no flooding concerns
across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 86 67 84 61 81 / 30 30 30 10 0
Panama City 82 69 82 62 78 / 30 10 20 10 0
Dothan 85 64 81 57 77 / 10 20 20 0 0
Albany 84 66 81 58 76 / 10 20 40 10 0
Valdosta 85 68 82 61 78 / 30 30 40 20 10
Cross City 87 69 82 61 81 / 30 30 30 20 10
Apalachicola 81 70 81 64 78 / 20 10 20 10 0