008
FXUS62 KTAE 131900
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
300 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Deep-layer north to northeast flow is expected through Monday, as
we get squeezed between a low pressure trough off the U.S.
Southeast Atlantic coast and high pressure extending from the
Middle Gulf up into MS and AL. Northerly flow will will limit the
inland extent of the seabreeze front. Without the seabreeze
penetrating very far inland, temperatures are forecast to reach
the upper 90s. Deep daytime mixing could help to lower afternoon
dewpoints into the lower 70s and upper 60s, especially along and
north of I-10, so this adds some question on whether or not we
will get to Heat Advisory criteria of 108F. The most likely places
for 108+ heat index values would be in the higher dewpoint air
near the coast, and along the I-75 corridor where deeper moisture
will exist.

The highest thunderstorm coverage on Monday will be near the
Suwannee River, where deeper moisture and closer proximity to low
pressure will be supportive.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

From Tuesday through Thursday, the focus of the forecast will
revolve around the low chance (20 percent) of tropical development
over the northeast or north-central Gulf during the middle part
of the week.

The large cluster of convection off the GA and NE FL coast this
afternoon is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. It
is expected move westward across the Florida Peninsula on
Tuesday. It would then enter the eastern or northeast Gulf late
Tuesday night or Wednesday. Obviously if the core of this feature
tracks westward over land along or north of I-10, it would have
no shot at tropical development.

The consensus of global models is to keep this simply as an open
inverted trough while tracking westward through the eastern Gulf.
The feature will confidently track westward around the southern
periphery of a solid mid- level ridge extending across northern
GA, AL, and MS. The open trough solution would simply bring a
shift to deep S-SE flow once the trough axis has moved west,
bringing richer moisture and increasing thunderstorm coverage
starting Wednesday.

There is a small minority of ensemble members and the 12z NAM
which evolve the trough into a closed low and tropical cyclone
over the eastern Gulf, after emerging off the west coast of
Florida. With that subtropical ridge axis north of our region, it
would confidently keep this feature moving west, avoiding a north
turn while south of our coast. In the outlier scenario of TC
development, the main impacts for our region would be marine and
beach hazards, perhaps some heavy rain, and breezy weather,
especially near the coast. One inhibiting factor to development
is that global models show easterly 200 mb winds of 15-20 knots as
the feature moves across the eastern Gulf. This much upper-level
shear would probably keep development on the slow and gradual
side. It could also make for a lopsided system, with the heavier
weather in the more distant western and southern semi- circle. Of
course a track too far north would increase land interaction and
further increase lopsidedness, with heavier weather offshore.
Again, it should emphasized that the TC scenario in this
paragraph has only a 20 percent chance (low chance) of occurring.
Do check back for the latest forecast in the days ahead.

Regardless of open trough or closed low, once this feature is
comfortably west of our region, the summertime Bermuda ridge axis
will build back west across North Florida and along the northeast
Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish back down to
climatological levels over the weekend, and temperatures will
climb back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Outside TSRA at terminals, mostly from 19-00z, VFR conditions will
prevail. TSRA could bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions, mostly due to
restricted visibilities. Best chances for TSRA, due to
northwesterly flow, will be at ECP/TLH with lower chances forecast
across DHN, ABY, and VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

High pressure will move from the southeast Gulf to the Middle Gulf
through Tuesday, supporting a slow turn from westerly to
northwesterly breezes.

A trough of low pressure will move westward across the Florida
Peninsula on Tuesday, and it will enter the eastern or northeast
Gulf late Tuesday night or Wednesday, crossing the waters on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. This trough has a low chance, or 20
percent chance, of tropical development during the middle to
latter part of this week, making the forecast more subject to
change. So check back early this week for updates to the
forecast.

The summertime Bermuda ridge axis will rebuild westward across
North Florida and near the northeast Gulf Coast on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Above normal temperatures will prevail through Tuesday. Deep
daytime mixing through Tuesday will help to dry the air mass out
in the afternoons, with Min RH dipping below 50 percent. A trough
of low pressure will move across the region from east to west on
Wednesday and Thursday, so moisture will increase as well as
thunder coverage and rainfall potential.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A somewhat common summer thunderstorm pattern is expected through
Tuesday, posing the risk of isolated flash flooding.

A trough of low pressure is expected to pass west across the
region around Wednesday. This will increase atmospheric moisture
and could better organize rain into training bands, especially
near the coast. This would further increase concern for flash
flooding on Wednesday and Thursday. River flooding is unlikely.

From Friday through next weekend, it`s back to routine summer
thunderstorms, with the main driver of any flooding being the
intense instantaneous rainfall rates.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  97  76  96 /  10  60  20  80
Panama City   78  94  80  96 /  10  40  30  70
Dothan        74  98  77  98 /  10  20  20  60
Albany        75  98  75  96 /  10  30  30  60
Valdosta      75  98  75  96 /  10  60  20  70
Cross City    75  96  73  94 /  30  80  40  80
Apalachicola  78  92  79  91 /  10  40  40  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner