Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281659
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 17W-23W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
02N13W TO 04N26W TO 03N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH
TEXAS NEAR 33N97W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOCUSED ON A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED IN
THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N92W. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OVER THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WEST TO 28N86W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS N OF 25N E OF 86W. FARTHER WEST...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 28N86W INTO THE LOW CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT SW
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N98W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A 300 NM
SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 22N98W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY REGION
BY WEDNESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BY THURSDAY...AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND THE EXISTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE BASIN...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE NORTHERLIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT IS FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY E OF 75W THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE
OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WEDNESDAY...BEGIN TO STALL AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN THE VICINITY OF 43N62W.
THE LOW SUPPORTS THE PARENT 988 MB SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
996 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 27N70W TO
27N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER FLORIDA
WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W. LOOKING
AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS POISED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC WEDNESDAY AND
DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT MOVES N-NE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS BY
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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