Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF PORTUGAL IS SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW AFRICA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
30N10W TO 31N30W. WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF THE
FRONT FROM 30N TO 35N W OF 12W. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N30W TO 6N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO
8N BETWEEN 11W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N
TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...INCLUDING THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N90W
TO 23N93W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS TO THE TX COAST NEAR 28N97W. DRY AIR IS PREVENTING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF N OF THE
FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN BASIN...WHILE E
TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE WESTERN BASIN. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS THE FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SE BASIN AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHERNMOST FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE SECOND COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO 20N76W TO 16N82W TO 12N83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THIS FRONT.
EAST TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT W OF
73W...AND 15 TO 20 KT E OF 73W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THE COLD FRONTS
WILL MERGE AND BECOME STATIONARY AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THESE FRONTS
EVEN AS THEY WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND APPROACH HAITI FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE
WEST ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE WESTERNMOST
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 23N80W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THIS
FRONT. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE SECOND
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THIS COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 53W IS INTERACTING WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N56W TO 23N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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