Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 071827
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
227 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN FL. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT AS A TUTT LOW MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THIS WILL KEEP E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT OVER
LAND AREAS...THEN MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES TO IMPACT THE REGIONS
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. WHILE TUTT LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SLOWLY MOVES WSW
OVER CUBA INTO SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL. DEEP MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING TO KEEP
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEA BREEZE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO WRAP
OVER THE AREA BETWEEN UPPER FEATURES TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TO
MAINLY ISOLATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

UPPER FLOW WEAKENS WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SEVERAL FEATURES BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SINKS
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALL COMBINES TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER A
TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY E/SE FLOW IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  77  92 /  30  50  30  40
FMY  75  93  74  93 /  20  60  30  50
GIF  74  93  75  93 /  30  40  20  30
SRQ  74  92  75  91 /  20  40  30  40
BKV  72  92  72  93 /  30  50  30  40
SPG  78  91  78  92 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS


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