Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 020827
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
427 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVES WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...COLLIDING WITH
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RIGHT
AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS STILL FORECAST
TO ARRIVE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR SPOT FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDING
INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS THEN SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT IN POSITIONING DETAILS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
ECMWF SHOWS IT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
OVERALL...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. VCTS IN PLACE FOR ALL SITES
STARTING AROUND 17Z OR 18Z...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OF LESS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG
THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DEVELOPING OVER LAND AND THEN
PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  91  76 /  40  20  40  30
FMY  93  74  91  74 /  60  20  50  20
GIF  93  74  92  74 /  30  10  40  10
SRQ  92  75  91  73 /  50  30  50  30
BKV  93  72  93  71 /  30  30  40  30
SPG  92  79  90  78 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA





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