Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 091944
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE GULF CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 20
TO 26 KNOTS. CLEARWATER OBSERVATION REPORTED DRIZZLE AT 16Z BUT
CURRENT RADAR DID NOT DETECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND ECMWF RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT
OVER FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z-12Z SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT. WIND CHILL TEMPS APPROACH CRITERIA OF 35 BUT WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. WILL KEEP INLAND LEVY COUNTY IN
FREEZE WARNING AS LIGHT WINDS ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO 30 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS TO BE GUSTY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
WILL DECREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - TUESDAY)...
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA AS
WELL. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT ALLOWING FOR MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WARMER
TEMPS...TO SETUP ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S THOSE DAYS.

WE WILL STAY DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS NOT REALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH OR TIMING WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20/30 POP ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BUT CIGS ARE HIGH AT 4-6 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS JUST STARTING TO COME DOWN SO WILL REPLACE GALE
WARNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA). CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY SO WILL DROP SCA IN THE BAYS IN THE MORNING AND
ELSEWHERE BY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THEN A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL AND ERC VALUES REMAIN LOW. ONLY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE HIGH DISPERSIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  57  41  62 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  50  62  42  66 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  42  58  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  48  59  42  63 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  39  55  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  49  58  45  62 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND
     LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...25/DAVIS


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