Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 281325
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
925 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Radar showed isolated showers (no lightning) around Cedar Key,
otherwise clear skies across forecast area. The morning sounding
showed a strong temperature inversion at 2,800 feet. The CAPE and
Precipitable Water are both lower than 24 hours ago. Daytime heating
with above normal temperatures and lift from Gulf Coast sea breeze
to give Interstate 75 corridor a 30 percent chance of storms.

The Heat Index will approach advisory criteria of 108 F. Isolated
areas like MacDill AFB will reach around 110, but do not expect
these indices to be widespread.

The Peace River in Arcadia and the Myakka River at the State Park
were in action stage but below flood stage. Forecast is for a slow
fall.


.AVIATION 28/12Z-29/12Z...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours.  A few thunderstorms will
develop over west central and southwest Florida late this afternoon
and evening with lcl MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys.  Best chance of
thunderstorms will between 5 PM and midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridge axis will hold across the waters through the weekend.
This will keep winds below 15 knots with seas less than 4 feet
through the period.  Main hazard will be mainly nocturnal and early
morning scattered thunderstorms which may produce locally gusty
winds a rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The relative humidity will remain above above critical levels each
day.

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&
$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/Noah



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