Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 202353
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
753 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
21/00Z-22/00Z. LIMITED AFTERNOON VCTS HAVE CLEARED THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. PREVAILING VFR AS WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA NEAR TPA/PIE/SRQ LATE IN THE
MORNING. VCNTY TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL TEND TO PUSH TSRA EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

..HOT DAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES
AND DRIER AIR INHIBITING DIURNAL CONVECTION HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.

PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME AREAS OF LEVY COUNTY PEAKING NEAR 108. WILL DEFER ON A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX OF 108 ACROSS AN AREA...TO
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WITH THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...HEAT
ADVISORY OR NOT...THE PEOPLE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT SUMMER DAYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE AIR CROSSES FROM THE GULF
TO THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL WARM UP CROSSING THE LANDMASS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AS WELL. THE ONLY MINOR
RELIEF ON THURSDAY WOULD BE SEA BREEZES...FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...OR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY
INLAND.

THOSE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT...INCLUDING CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK WATER...WEAR
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES...TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS...AND
IMMEDIATELY SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION IF ANY HEAT STRESS SYMPTOMS
OCCUR. WHILE WE REGULARLY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN
FLORIDA...THIS POSSIBLE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR HOURS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE EXPOSED TO
IT.

GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
PREFERRED A MAV/MET/ECMWF MOS BLEND WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD AID RAIN CHANCES LATER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY
THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY...WITH
THE SYSTEM NEARING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWOAT/ FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. 02/RAG

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME SO WE
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LAL AND THE SWFL TERMINALS COULD
SEE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN
FOR THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WATERS...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND MOISTURE SOURCES...LIKE LAKES OR CREEKS...AND NOT A CONCERN
FOR MOTORISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  93 /  10  40  20  30
FMY  78  95  78  95 /  10  50  20  40
GIF  77  96  77  96 /  10  40  10  30
SRQ  78  93  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  73  96  74  95 /  10  40  20  30
SPG  81  94  79  93 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...21/JELSEMA








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