Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 232343
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
643 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.AVIATION...
A few patches of MVFR ceilings remain across the area, but
otherwise VFR conditions are prevailing this evening.
Lingering low level moisture will allow for MVFR, or perhaps
some IFR ceilings to redevelop around 08z, along with some
patchy fog. The best chances for fog will be around KLAL and
KPGD. Conditions will improve by mid morning on Friday,
with generally VFR expected for the rest of Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 136 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (This afternoon- Friday)...
Cold upper low continues to slowly spin off the FL E Coast
this afternoon wrapping last of powerful vort max over the
area producing light sprinkles and low clouds as occluded
surface low centered near Cape Canaveral drifts Eward.

Upper ridging to build into the E Gulf from the SW Gulf/NW
Carib tonight then up over the region Friday. Western
Atlantic surface low slowly pulls into the W Atlantic
tonight with weak high pressure building down the eastern
seaboard and into the area through Friday. Low level flow
to remain N-NE which will keep Atlantic moisture over the
region for patchy fog and low clouds tonight then partly
cloudy skies Friday while temps remain 5-10 degrees above
seasonal averages.

LONG TERM (Friday Night - Thursday)...
A progressive split flow upper air pattern will occur across the
Conus during the long term period. At the start of the period upper
and surface ridging over the region will support dry weather with
above normal temperatures. On Saturday a cold front will approach
from the west with the front moving south through the region during
Saturday night as a storm system lifts northeastward into eastern
Canada. Lack of moisture accompanying this front will support a dry
passage with just a few clouds expected. In the wake of the front
strong surface high pressure will build in over the mid Atlantic and
southeastern states on Sunday with the high shifting east into the
Atlantic into early next week. Dry and stable conditions associated
with the high will support pleasant dry weather across the forecast
area through Wednesday. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
cooler (though still remaining above normal) compared to Saturday in
the wake of the front with highs in the lower to mid 70s north into
central zones, and upper 70s south.

During Monday through Wednesday warmer temperatures are expected as
a southeast to southerly wind flow develops across the region as the
surface high shifts further east into the Atlantic with the ridge
axis extending back to the west across the central peninsula. On
Thursday another cold front will approach and move south through the
region during the day. Better moisture return ahead of this front
should support higher chances for some showers or a storm with its
passage with rain chances in the 20 to 30 percent range expected.

Temperatures Monday through Thursday will run some 10 to 12 degrees
above normal with overnight lows in the 60s, with daytime highs
climbing into the lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s
inland.

MARINE... Low pressure area over FL E coast to keep tight
gradient over E Gulf tonight for elevated N winds and NW
seas, will hoist SCEC over 20nm-60nm offshore waters.
Gradient relaxes Friday-Saturday with marine conditions
becoming benign. Cold front to bring breezy N winds and
elevated seas Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture remains high to keep min RHs well above
critical levels through Saturday. Dry airmass to filter
into the area Sunday with low RHs.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  80  64  77 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  62  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  62  83  62  82 /  10   0   0  10
SRQ  63  78  62  76 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  83  57  79 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  65  79  65  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST Friday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$


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