Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191306
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
906 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
High pressure surface and aloft over the Gulf will remain in
control of our weather the remainder of today with light
north to northeast winds with an onshore sea breeze
component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Morning raob data shows that moisture has increase some with
a PW of 1.38 inches which is up about a third of an inch
from yesterday at this time. Morning satellite imagery and
raob data shows a band of mid level moisture across the the
central peninsula resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies
while northern and southern areas were generally mostly
clear.

As for the remainder of today expect a partly sunny day.
The subtle increase in moisture noted above combined with
daytime heating and the sea breeze circulations should
support slightly better chances for some showers during the
afternoon despite a rather strong subsidence inversion
around 733MB, with the best chances likely to be south of
the I-4 corridor where the best moisture will reside, with
mainly warm and dry conditions continuing across the Nature
Coast. Afternoon temperatures should again climb into the
upper 80s along the coast, and lower 90s inland. Current
forecast handles ongoing and expected trends well, so a
morning update will not be required at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail at all terminal sites during the next 24
hours. Far southern terminals could see some showers after
18Z and have included VCSH for now. Northeast winds around
5 knots this morning will shift to northwest and increase
to 7 to 10 knots at KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ after 18Z as the sea
breeze develops. Northeast to east winds around 5 knots can
be expected at all of the terminals after 02Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Gulf waters will continue to support
tranquil boating conditions with northeast to north winds
around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less with an onshore
sea breeze component developing along the coast during the
afternoon. Ongoing forecast is in great shape with no changes
expected in the next forecast issuance around 10 AM this
morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor to major flooding continues on area rivers and creeks.
The drier air of the past few days has allowed most rivers
to trend down...however the Withlacoochee river at both
Croom and Trilby are forecast to continue to slowly rise
through mid to late week. Trilby remains in major flood and
Croom goes into moderate flood. Limited rainfall is expected
through mid to late week...allowing the rivers to continue
to slowly fall. Where rivers have already crested impacts
will likely linger given the very gradual recession of
floodwaters expected.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael
UPPER AIR...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka
HYDROLOGY...09/Rude



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