Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 290806
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
406 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE A RIDGE REACHED FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SURFACE - A LOW ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO
HAD A FRONTAL TROUGH OR BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SPRAWLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY- MONDAY)...
A PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE MID CONUS
RIDGE FLATTENING SOME AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
THE ATLANTIC. THE OHIO VALLEY SURFACE HIGH RE-LOCATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTAL WATERS AS IT RIDGES BACK OVER FL TO THE
GULF. THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW MOVES TO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS FRONTAL TROUGH
BEGINS TO WASH OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THEN SLIPS DOWN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRIDGING
THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY.

A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS WITH A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS WITH PERHAPS A ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE IT
RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE TO THE GULF...A COOL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY... ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM...TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH WEAK...AND THE POSITION OF A 110-KNOT UPPER-
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH
TX/LA MID-WEEK WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODELS
BUT BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/06Z-30/06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SKC TO A FEW CIRRUS.
NORTH OR NE WINDS ALTHOUGH TPA/PIE/SRQ WILL SEE WINDS BACK SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RE-LOCATES TO ATLANTIC WATERS BY MON THEN MOVES
EAST...RIDGING ACROSS FL TO THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. BENIGN
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WITH WINDS/SEA NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS/4
FEET...AN USUALLY LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE MID 20 PERCENT
RANGE FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS BOTH TODAY AND MON. HOWEVER...NETHER
ERC VALUES OR WIND SPEEDS WILL SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNINGS. THE RH
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  51  75  61 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  78  52  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  72  49  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  73  50  75  60 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  71  38  75  53 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  70  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE


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