Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 050047
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
847 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
COOL FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ARE STARTING TO USHER IN THE COOLER DRIER AIR. FRONT
WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. ON THURSDAY A REINFORCING COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70 NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO THE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM
GULF WATERS. ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM UP
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...OR ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL
ONLY UPDATE ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES IN AN HOUR OR SO
ONCE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND
SHORTLY BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. BY 06Z MOST OF THE LOW CEILINGS
SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETUP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETUP BEHIND THE COOL FRONT TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL BE ISSUING A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHORTLY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TOWARD
MORNING...BUT REMAIN IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND REMAIN RATHER BREEZY AROUND 15 KNOTS THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  78  61  75 /  20  10   0   0
FMY  67  81  62  80 /  70  10   5   0
GIF  62  78  57  77 /  20  10   0   0
SRQ  68  79  60  76 /  20  10   5   0
BKV  60  77  53  75 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  69  77  65  74 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE



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