Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 231127
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
727 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
23/12Z-24/12Z. Anticipate limited BR TIL 14-15Z with some
MVFR. A weak front pushes through today...bringing
increasing clouds through the morning into the afternoon
along with low odds of TSRA/SHRA...ending around sunset
when the front exits south FL. Prevailing NE to E winds
and gusty afternoon and early evening.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 335 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today - Friday)...
Currently at the surface, a weak backdoor cold front is pushing
southwest into the Florida Peninsula, fueling a few bands of low
clouds moving through the area in the moist air mass ahead of the
front. While this front won`t lead to a significant cool down, highs
this afternoon are expected to be 5-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday, largely due to the increased cloud cover associated with
the front. The bigger impacts from the front today will be chances
for showers and storms and breezy winds. As moisture increases along
and just ahead of the frontal passage, scattered showers will spread
southwest through much of the area later this afternoon and into the
early evening hours before tapering off by Friday morning The highest
rain chances are generally expected over interior regions and in
Southwest Florida. Cool mid level temperatures will allow a few
thunderstorms to develop as well. The biggest threat from these
storms will be strong wind gusts, although it will not be impossible
to see some small hail if a tall enough updraft develops. As strong
high pressure fills in behind the front, sustained winds this
afternoon over the interior are forecast to peak at around 15-20 MPH,
which is just below the criteria for a Lake Wind Advisory.
Tonight and Friday, mid level ridging will build in over the Gulf,
as the Atlantic surface high pressure ridges across the Florida
Peninsula. Lows tonight won`t be significantly cooler, generally
bottoming out from the mid 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will warm
back up into the upper 70s and low 80s Friday under partly cloudy
skies. Winds will be lighter than today, but will still be on the
LONG TERM (Friday Night - Thursday)...
An amplified upper level pattern continues over the CONUS. A closed
upper low sits over the Bahamas while upper level ridging extends
from the central Gulf of Mexico northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic
region. Another closed upper low sits over Kansas and extends
troughing southward through Texas. This pattern shifts east through
the weekend, with troughing extending over Florida by Sunday. By
Tuesday next week, an upper level low moves north of the Great lakes
and extends troughing south over the eastern U.S. and over Florida.
A more zonal pattern sets up over the region by Wednesday next week.
On the surface, strong high pressure sits just north of Bermuda and
ridges southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This will
keep a northeast through southeast wind flow and rain-free
conditions over Florida through the end of the week. Another area of
high pressure develops in the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Sunday and
will keep benign weather conditions over the area through the middle
of next week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
with daytime highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the upper
50s to low 60s.
A backdoor cold front will move through the coastal waters from the
northeast to southwest today. Winds are expected to pick up late this
afternoon over the the northeastern Gulf, potentially reaching
exercise caution levels north of Tarpon Springs. Behind the front,
strong high pressure settling in near Bermuda will ridge into the
eastern Gulf, setting up a tight pressure gradient across the coastal
waters. Winds will increase to advisory levels over the offshore
waters tonight, with exercise caution headlines expected for the
nearshore zones. Conditions will briefly improve Friday before an
easterly surge elevates winds to cautionary or possibly advisory
levels again late Friday night. Benign conditions will then take over
for the weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure
holds across the waters.
A weak cold front will move in from the northeast today, bringing
chances for rain and slightly drier air. Relative humidity
will drop to around 40 percent in many locations Friday afternoon,
however no critical humidity levels are expected through the upcoming
weekend. Breezy winds will lead to elevated dispersion indices this
afternoon and again Friday afternoon.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 78 61 79 62 / 30 10 0 0
FMY 81 62 80 61 / 40 10 10 0
GIF 76 59 78 59 / 40 10 0 0
SRQ 77 61 77 61 / 30 10 0 0
BKV 76 58 78 56 / 30 0 0 0
SPG 77 62 78 64 / 20 10 0 0
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Friday for Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL
out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs
to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/Fleming
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn