Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 210036
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
836 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Aloft - A low over the Gulf of Mexico...north of the Yucatan
Peninsula this evening...slides west through Monday. A ridge from
the Atlantic... between 30 and 35 North Latitude...to the Deep
South expands west across the lower Mississippi Valley and builds
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Another low or inverted
trough...associated with a tropical wave... approaches the Bahamas
Mon afternoon. Surface - The axis of a fairly broad subtropical
ridge extends along and just north of Latitude 30 North from the
Atlantic to TX. Two tropical waves are embedded on the south side
of this ridge...the first tracks across southern FL to the Gulf
overnight and the second moves into the Bahamas by late day Mon.
Deep moisture is in place...the TBW sounding has a PWAT values of
2.16 inches this evening. However a broad swath of drier air...
sandwiched between the two waves...spreads in later tonight and
continues for much of Mon. PWAT reported on the Miami sounding
dropped from 2.22 inches this morning to 1.78 this evening.

Showers and thunderstorms were scattered through out the
afternoon with the only impacts being some stronger winds on Gulf
waters at times. These showers and storms are now winding down
and are expected to clear most locations during the next couple
of hours. The forecasts have been updated to better reflect this
decreasing coverage. For Mon only isolated showers and storms are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/00Z TAFs. ISOLD TSRA/SHRA PSBL TIL 02Z. Otherwise VFR through
period...drier air for most of Mon will preclude convection
impacting the terminals. However increasing moisture late in the day
will result in expanded cloud cover. Easterly winds prevail and may
be robust at time Mon afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridges north of the waters through about midweek as a
couple of tropical waves traverse westward on the ridge/s south
side. The first wave exits south South FL tonight and the second
crosses the southern part of the states Tue-Wed. The waves will
bring increased showers and thunderstorms with locally higher
winds and seas. Otherwise easterly winds prevail with benign winds
and seas. The ridge settles southward toward the end of the week
as a cold front sags toward the Gulf coast.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  20  10  10  30
FMY  76  93  77  91 /  20  10  10  50
GIF  75  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  30
SRQ  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  10  30
BKV  75  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  20
SPG  79  92  80  92 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka


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