Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
207 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Saturday)...
Upper level troughing extends over the southeast U.S. and into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The trough will slightly weaken through the
period, but will remain the dominant upper feature over the region
through the weekend. This trough is lending support to an area of
low pressure located off the east coast of Florida. The frontal
boundary extends southwest over southern Florida. This system will
move northeast and will be located off the mid-Atlantic coast by
Saturday morning. Surface high pressure builds into the area for the
remainder of the short term period.

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations are still showing
an extensive area of low clouds over central Florida from
Punta Gorda northward to the Nature Coast. Models are
indicating that some drier low/mid level air will be
filtering into the area later today and on Saturday to clear
up most of this extensive cloudiness. With all the cloud
cover, temperatures will be well below average with most
places only reaching the low 70`s today and tomorrow. With
high pressure building into the area, rain-free conditions
can be expected through the weekend.


.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...
At the start of the long range period, broad cyclonic flow will
overspread the eastern CONUS, extending from the Great Lakes into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, large scale ridging will
dominate the southern Rockies and Desert Southwest. At the surface,
weak high pressure will spill into the Florida peninsula, with an
inverted trough on its southern periphery.

From Sunday into Monday, models depict a piece of upper level energy
will dive into the Gulf of Mexico. This coupled with the
aforementioned trough will lead to showers and thunderstorms over
the waters. Cloud cover associated with this activity will likely
blow over southern Florida during the day, which may limit afternoon
temperatures somewhat on Monday. Otherwise, no impacts are expected.
A reinforcing front nudged southward by a shortwave trough will push
this activity south, removing the potential for showers through the
most of the week. Long range guidance then differs on the handling
of a cold front late next week into next weekend, which could bring
the next best chance of meaningful rainfall.

Temperatures will generally stay right around normal through the
coming week. Highs will generally remain in the 70s to low 80s by
mid to late week, with lows ranging from the lower 50s north to
lower/mid 60s south.


The main aviation concern continues to be low ceilings and VSBY
restrictions with low stratus and drizzle from SRQ northward. Some
brief MVFR conditions will be possible over the next couple of
hours, then becoming VFR region wide by late afternoon. Some VSBY
restrictions with BR will be possible at PGD/FMY/RSW early tomorrow
morning after 06Z. Winds will remain out of the north-northeast at
less than 10 knots. No other aviation impacts expected.


The area of low pressure has moved east of the Florida peninsula.
Some lingering areas of light rain will stick around through the
day. Interaction between this low and high pressure building in from
the northwest is causing some gusty winds around 18 knots over the
outer coastal waters this afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually
subside through the day on Friday, as high pressure builds in from
the north and rain chances clear out. High pressure will hold north
of the area through the weekend and into early next week, with winds
and seas expected to remain below headline criteria.


High pressure builds into the area producing rain-free conditions
through the weekend. High humidity levels will preclude any fire
weather concerns through the period.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  59  74  59  74 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  60  77  60  75 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  55  75  56  74 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  59  73  59  74 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  52  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  60  73  61  74 /   0   0  10  10


Gulf waters...None.


LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.