Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 250541
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
141 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
VFR conditions overnight through Saturday morning. Typical
summertime SCT TSRA along onshore seabreeze boundaries aft about
17Z Saturday afternoon through evening.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 834 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/
00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show a broad area of upper
level ridging in place over the Florida peninsula this evening.
Was a warm to hot summer day for most with our normal
distribution of diurnal sea-breeze driven showers and storms.
Clusters of storms are still ongoing...and with the sun just now
setting...we can anticipate renewed development through 10-11PM.
The best potential for a downpour the next several hours will be
across Manatee/Hillsborough/Polk Counties as a healthy cluster of
storms pushes slowly westward...and creates new outflow boundaries
for future storms to find a root on. Watching closely as to
whether this activity will make it as far west as the waters of
Tampa Bay and Pinellas County.
At the surface...the subtropical ridge axis stretches east to west
across the central FL peninsula into the eastern and central Gulf
of Mexico. The current pattern is about as "summer" as it gets for
Florida and will hold through the first half of the weekend.
Once the diurnal thunderstorms have finally rained themselves out
by around midnight...the remainder of the overnight should be
The weather for Saturday looks very similar. We will start the
day out rather tranquil...with a slowly building cumulus field and
temps rising toward 90 by early afternoon. Once the sea-breeze
kicks in we will see a scattering of storms develop after 17-18Z.
The storms are likely to consolidate along or just east of the
I-75 corridor during the later afternoon hours. However...similar
to today...this activity may tend to migrate back westward during
the evening along cold pool generated outflow.
MARINE... A ridge of pressure from the western Atlantic to the
Gulf will meander north and south over FL through the weekend. The
gradient stays relaxed... allowing an onshore sea breeze component
to form along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas rather
benign with the main concern locally higher winds and seas near
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 90 78 92 77 / 20 10 50 30
FMY 91 76 93 75 / 30 30 60 20
GIF 93 76 93 75 / 30 10 60 20
SRQ 87 77 90 76 / 10 20 40 20
BKV 91 73 93 73 / 30 10 50 30
SPG 90 79 92 78 / 10 10 40 30