Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 012049
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rainshowers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over northcentral and northeastern KS tonight
into the early morning hours Wednesday.  Most short-term high
resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that weak
insentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR conditions should continue over the next 24hrs. Gusty winds at
times this afternoon should calm near 00z time frame. Overnight,
there are some very small chances of showers and thunderstorms but
these should remain off to the North and West of the terminals.
LLWS may be a concern near 12z time mainly near KMHK, but didn`t
include in this TAF issuance due to low confidence in actually
meeting threshold values.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Drake


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