Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 292315
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
615 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FCST FOCUS ON CLOUDS/PRECIP NEXT 24 HRS.

19Z SFC MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. NORTHEAST FLOW IS ATTEMPTING TO BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA WHILE THE SFC BOUNDARY APPEARS TO NOW BE IN
OK. EXPECT CONVECTION NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO MOVE EAST AND
COULD CLIP PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP CHC
POPS IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING.

TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEST
LIFT ALONG WITH SOME 850-700MB THETA E ADVECTION SHOULD FORCE
ADDITIONAL STORMS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.
THICKNESSES AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT SUGGEST A ESE MOVEMENT SO WILL
KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND DRY
ELSEWHERE.  THU SHOULD BE ANOTHER DECENT DAY WITH DRY CONDS AND NEAR
AVG TEMPS AROUND 90 MOST SPOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND PERIODS WITH SOME MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
A MODIFIED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN
CANADIAN UPPER LOW. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE BUILDING
BUT FORCING AGAIN LOOKS MEAGER. HAVE ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCES IN
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH PROBABLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN KS.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE
DAYTIME WITH PROBABLY ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IN STORE THAT COULD
CAUSE HEAT RELATED HEADLINES.  STILL FAR OUT TO PINPOINT ANYTHING
CONCRETE REGARDING THIS FOR NOW.  INTO THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY
PRECIP MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER, THE BEST FORCING IS STILL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO IOWA.  FROM HERE
THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT.  THE GFS
PUSHES ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
 MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP AN OPEN WAVE INTO A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER WAVE IS DEEPENED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TREND WITH THE ECMWF IS TO
DEVELOP SOME TYPE OF MCS FEATURE AND SLOWLY MOVE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
ALTHOUGH IT IS FAR OUT AT THIS POINT, THIS FEATURE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...OMITT
LONG TERM...DRAKE/65
AVIATION...HENNECKE



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