Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 262324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Front is slowly making its way south and eastward across the
forecast area today.  Northern counties have remained near freezing,
while far southeastern locales such as Garnett have made it into the
50s before the front passes.  Light returns on radar aloft are not
yet making it to the ground, with heavier returns noted west of the
CWA over central and western Kansas, moving slowly north and east.
Shortwave energy noted lifting out of the eastern side of the upper
trof now over Colorado, and is expected to keep moving in this
northeasterly direction.

For tonight, best chances for any measurable precipitation are
generally in the 03z-09z window, as isentropic lift gets a little
better organized for showers over the southeast which remains above
freezing, while lift from the upper wave translates across western
areas and brings a chance for light snow from west toward the east
in this window as well. Could see a rain snow mix as temperatures at
the surface eventually turn over to freezing, but don`t expect much
to stick east and south of generally the Manhattan area. May get
around half an inch in the far northeast where temperatures have
remains below freezing and better moisture and lift pass over in the
late evening hours.  Do see some drier air in the soundings but
think at this point its not a strong enough dry signal for freezing
drizzle and will keep as rain and snow or a mix at this time.

Lows fall generally into the 20s tonight. Clearing skies from west
to east as precipitation ends by early morning should help boost
high temperatures into the upper 20s north central to middle 30s
east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

High pressure ridge moves across eastern KS Saturday night. Clear
skies and light winds will allow lows to fall into the teens
across the area. Sunday looks relatively pleasant with some sun
and light southeast winds.

Weak upper disturbance moves eastward into the area by Monday
afternoon with enough lift and possible saturation to bring a slight
chance of light snow to north central KS.  System moves out Monday
evening with chances of snow continuing across more of the area.
Once again, system is weak, lift is weak, and would not expect much
in the way of accumulation.  Forecast vertical temperature profiles
during that time would indicate that any precipitation that falls,
should be all in the form of light snow.

Following the disturbance, 1040+ high sags south-southeastward down
into the Plains, leading to MUCH colder temperatures for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Next precip chances in the medium range are for Thursday night and
Friday. ECMWF, GFS and GFSEnsemble all would indicate our area
being affected by a southern stream storm system passing by to
our south. As would be expected that far out, timing and amplitude
of system differs among the models, but there is enough of a
signal to put in a chance of snow Thursday night. A mix of rain
and snow may occur Friday, if precip develops and temps rise to
the mid to upper 30s as forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR cigs to continue at MHK with a mix of RASN and DZ through 03Z
then transition over to -SN with precip ending around 08Z. Further
east at TOP and FOE VFR and MVFR cigs are expected through 03Z
them MVFR. Could see some -RASN through 09Z then cigs improving to
VFR by 12Z. Winds north to northwest around 10kts or less.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...53






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