000
FXUS63 KTOP 170910
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS MORNING...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO I-70 IN DICKINSON COUNTY..THEN
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF EMPORIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
POSSIBLE MCV FORMING NORTHEAST OF ICT. THIS MCV WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCE LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCV...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSING
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COFFEY AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE MCV SHIFTS EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MO...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT
THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL CONUS WILL AMPLIFY...THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NE AND
EASTERN CO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OR MCS`S. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z NAM TRACKS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WESTERN NE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARW AND RUC
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ATTM...I ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS IN CASE THE TRACK OF ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS HAS A
FARTHER EAST TRACK THAT COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS...SO IT MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
UNTIL IT IS KNOWN IF ONE OF THE HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUD THIS MORNING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

GARGAN


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AT 850MB BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FCST GOING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY AS THE AREA UNDERGOES A TRANSITION BACK
TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  THE EC IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A POSSIBLE MCS AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIOR TO
THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THU.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK NORTHWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION AS A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND A HOTTER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. HAVE EDGED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN HIGHER TEMPS CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK LOW AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR
NORTHERN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AS THESE TWO AREAS MERGE TOGETHER...MAY SEE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...HENNECKE