Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KTOP 282334
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WAS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A MCPHERSON TO
OSAGE CITY, TO SOUTH OF THE KC METRO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OF GARNETT,
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF ICT. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AT 2 PM, WAS
LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CU FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH INCLUDE THE HRRR, WRF AND 12KM NAM
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT
OVERTAKES THE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE`S A CHANCE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES AFTER 22Z BUT THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON. I MAY KEEP
SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM EAST OF EMP, EAST
ACROSS COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BUT WILL END SLIGHT POP CHANCES
BY 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH COOLER WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND
THE FRONT, JUST AS WARM AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT COOLER AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN KS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

MONDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE DRY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S RANGE.

MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BE ON AND OFF ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS.  AS THE QUITE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO FLATTEN,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK OVER THE
REGION.  THE LATE EVENING THURSDAY INTO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IF A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORT LOBE CAN DEVELOP AND HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  IT DOES APPEAR THIS ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY LOSE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO SATURDAY AND
LINGER TO THE SOUTH WHICH AT THIS POINT COULD PRESENT PROBLEMS AT
LEAST FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  ALL THAT SAID, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE 4TH OF JULY HAS A DECENT SHOT OF BEING DRY OVER MOST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VERY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  REGARDLESS, AT THIS POINT, CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK SMALL.  AGAIN, WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THE TREND OF MINOR
SHORTWAVE AND MINOR RIDGE PLACEMENT, IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR OUT AS MANY
VARIABLES CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S WHICH PUTS THOSE VALUES RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.