Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KTOP 012348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rain showers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over north central and northeastern KS
tonight into the early morning hours Wednesday. Most short-term
high resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that
weak isentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is the potential for some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to clip the TAF sites late overnight into Wednesday
morning, however confidence in the location of any of these isolated
showers is not high enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this
time, but will continue to monitor this potential. With the low-
level jet axis centered over central KS tonight, there is the
potential for some brief low-level wind shear concerns, especially
near KMHK as it is located closer to this increasing low-level jet.
Cannot rule out the potential for some borderline low-level wind
shear concerns near KTOP/KFOE so will continue to monitor this
potential as well. Otherwise, expect increasing southerly winds by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.