297
FXUS63 KTOP 101924
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
224 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for storms increase (30%) this evening and overnight, mainly
  across north central Kansas. These storms are expected to
  weaken as they enter the area, but could produce some strong
  wind gusts.

- A cold front moves into the area on Friday, bringing another chance
  for storms. A few storms could be strong to severe with
  damaging wind gusts being the main hazard.

- Cooler on Saturday with highs in the 80s, but near-normal
  temperatures return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Northeast Kansas resides between this morning`s shortwave and
another wave over the central High Plains this afternoon.
Temperatures have warmed into the 90s with humid conditions creating
heat indices around 100 degrees this afternoon. The Rockies wave
advances east this evening and overnight, sparking convection along
a weak surface boundary that extends from southwest Kansas into
central Nebraska. The surface boundary and better mid-level forcing
are displaced to the north and west of the local area and increasing
inhibition during the overnight hours should lead to weakening of
convection with eastward extent. Thus, highest chances for severe
weather are west of the forecast area, but there could be a few
strong to severe wind gusts if elevated convection remains more
organized as it enters the area.

The surface front will be the focus of convective initiation Friday
afternoon as the EML erodes. The location of this boundary by the
afternoon remains varied among guidance, but is favored to reside
somewhere along or north of Interstate 70. Forecast soundings depict
2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but effective shear is progged to be
rather weak. Large-scale forcing is also lacking with only a couple
of subtle shortwaves moving through. Weak lift from a passing wave
and convergence along the front should be sufficient for isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the afternoon (3-5 PM for initial
storm development) and continue into the evening and overnight hours
as the front works its way through the area. While weak shear and
lift will limit the coverage of any severe weather, inverted-V
soundings and DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg will support strong to severe
wind gusts with these storms during the afternoon and evening hours.
PWATS around 1.75" will support heavy rainfall with storms as well,
but there isn`t a strong signal for backbuilding of convection and
any flooding issues would likely be localized in nature.

Showers and storms linger into the morning hours of Saturday before
conditions dry out as surface ridging builds in. Cooler air is
expected for Saturday with highs in the 80s before southerly flow
returns on Sunday and temperatures warm back near normal into
early next week. Several passing waves keep low chances for
showers and storms in the forecast through Monday, but the next
best chance for precipitation comes Tuesday through Wednesday as
a more potent perturbation and stronger front move through the
area. Cooler conditions are favored behind this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions expected. Breezy south winds gusting around 20kts
will subside after sunset this evening. Convection in central
Kansas this evening tries to push into eastern Kansas, but
current thinking is that this convection weakens and may
dissipate altogether before reaching KMHK. Have left out
mention of any precipitation for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan