Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 290224
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
924 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Will issue a frost advisory around the edge of the current freeze
warning. Latest short term guidance continues to suggest lows to
be in the mid 30s, and current temp trends lead me to think
current forecast is in reasonable shape. So I am not that
concerned about temps being cooler than the forecast. However with
a good radiational cooling set up and forecast temps of 33 to 35,
feel it is prudent to put an advisory out nest to the warning
area where temps will be close to freezing and areas of frost
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

High pressure will continue to build into the Plains as the upper
trough moves across the Great Lakes Region and Ontario. Surface
ridge axis will move over north central and northeast Kansas
overnight then proceed eastward Wednesday across east central
Kansas. Clear skies and nearly calm winds are expected tonight with
good radiational cooling. Shelter temperatures will cool to near or
below freezing for parts of north central and northeast Kansas for a
few hours and will issue a freeze warning for these areas tonight.
Other areas are expected to remain above freezing. Have spread frost
wording further south across the rest of the CWA for tonight, but
rather dry airmass and warm ground temperatures may keep frost from
becoming widespread.

Return flow on the back side of the surface high on Wednesday will
bring the winds around to the southeast and south through the day.
Temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Next northwest flow shortwave trough will traverse the mid Missouri
Valley Wednesday night and early Thursday. Although can`t totally
rule out a sprinkle in the far northeast corner...model trends
remain keeping better precipitation chances east of the county
warning area (CWA). Cooler air however will continue to sink
southward into the area into Friday. Therefore...following highs
in the 60s on Thursday...highs Friday will only be primarily in
the middle 50s...which is about 10 degrees below average for late
October. This will set the stage Friday night/Saturday morning for
most areas to see a freeze as temperatures fall into the upper 20s
to lower 30s in all but the far western counties.

Southerly winds will then develop by midday Saturday across the
entire area and increase through the afternoon as the upper ridge in
the Rockies translates eastward. Will continue with a dry forecast
Saturday...Saturday night and even into most of Sunday as the
western trough is slower on its eastward progression. As a
result...appears the low level jet will increase ahead of the front
with elevated convection possible in the evening/overnight. Better
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms arrive Monday into
Monday Night...especially ahead of the front across the southeast
half of the CWA. As the upper trough shears and become more
positively tilted...expect an gradual decrease in rain chances
northwest to southeast across the area on Tuesday as the front
pushes well to the south and east of the area.

Highs Sunday through Tuesday should commonly be in the low to middle
60s...with some upper 50s by Tuesday behind the front. Lows will
generally be in the 40s...although some upper 30s are forecast
across the northern counties by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist with a dry surface ridge
building in.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ026-034-
035-037-039-040.

FREEZE WARNING from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-036-038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters







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