000
FXUS63 KTOP 050547
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds north 10 kts
or less will gradually back to the southeast to south in the
17Z-21Z time period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...53