Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260451

1151 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Fcst focus on evolution of convection this evening/overnight. Two
main features of note include upper low across western Nebraska and
upper wave and associated bow echo racing northeast into OK.  19Z
sfc map showed a weak low east of DDC helping to maximize
mass/moisture convergence from ICT north toward SLN. Vis sat loop
shows convection already developing under the cirrus canopy across
southern KS while the CU field across central KS near SLN is
becoming more agitated.  Early morning outflow boundary is still
visible across southern MO/northern OK while the wind fields across
our area have become more uniform out of the S with dewpoints in the
mid 60s yielding MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/KG.  6KM shear is
decreasing with time however as main mid lvl jet moves northeast
away from the area.  That said modest 6KM shear of 20-30KTs will
persist overnight.

Convective models have been consistent in showing storms developing
near SLN next few hours and moving NE across parts of the area.
Would expect hail/dmg wind to be main hazards though tornado risk
cannot be completely ruled out given low level profile for a time
this afternoon. Expect a cluster of storms to form and impact the
area from 4pm through 12a with some additional storms expected to
move north out of southern KS on the northern side of that upper
wave. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy rains however LLJ
weakens and veers by 06z so don`t see a persistent training/flood
risk overnight but will need to be cautious with any rains that fall
where flooding is ongoing.

Storm chcs should diminish between 6z
and 12z Tues with most of Tues expected to be dry.  A weak cold
front will attempt to sag into the area later Tues and could spark
convection along it mainly north of I-70 Tues but support and shear
don`t look too impressive so will keep chcs low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

For the period Tuesday night through Thursday, the central plains
will be southwest flow aloft as the upper trough over the desert
southwest slowly moves east. At the surface, a weak surface
boundary over southern Kansas Tuesday night should slowly lift
north Wednesday and Thursday across the plains. Southerly flow
across Kansas should increase precipitable water values to above
1.5 inches by Friday. There should be weak shortwaves in the flow
coupled with a moist unstable airmass and a boundary in the area
will yield modest POPs through this period. The models are
uncertain about the timing of precipitation and associated QPF,
but the pattern favors precipitation. Temperatures should be

The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF continue the trend of moving the western US
upper trough into the plains by Saturday. At the same time, a
strong northern stream shortwave over the great lakes drives a
Canadian airmass into the northern and eventually the central
plains late this week and this weekend. The GFS has been showing this
for several runs and ECMWF is as well. This airmass will likely
interact with shortwave energy coming out of the southwest to
produce more showers and storms across the central plains. Higher
POPS are the result along with clouds and cooler temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Showers and thunderstorms should continue at TOP and FOE until
about 09Z with things slowly drying out after that. MVFR
conditions expected in the precipitation. MHK should have just
some light rain until about 09Z, with VFR conditions throughout.
After that, expect dry conditions and VFR for the day into the
evening. There is a small chance of evening thunderstorms in east
central KS this evening, but not enough confidence to put in TAF.




LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...GDP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.