Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 170916
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
316 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Temperatures overnight have remained in the 50s as warm advection
and stratus have spread across the forecast area. Dewpoints are also
on the rise with 40s near the NE border and low 50s coming into our
southern counties. Winds have stayed mixed overnight generally south
of I70, with EMP sustained near 20 mph at this hour and Abilene
gusting near 25. 850 LLJ is moving overhead and moves eastward
through sunrise, and have increase wind speeds into the early
morning hours generally along and south of I70 where speed max at
850 traverses into early morning.  Next consideration is cloud
cover, with slightly better model agreement in keeping clouds
through the morning and into early afternoon, and possibly getting a
break late afternoon. This also allows western areas to mix into
warmer temperatures into the middle 70s, with the eastern counties
getting to near 70 before the better mixing declines later in the
afternoon. In terms of rain chances, NAM depicting very little lift
in the boundary layer with GFS more generous, and have carried some
low chances for drizzle ending west to east late this morning.

Anticipate a lull in wind speeds this evening before the front comes
in late tonight and switches back to breezy northwesterly winds,
increasing near 30-35mph toward sunrise and keeping lows mixed in
the upper 30s to middle 40s. Chance for showers with the front as
well but amounts are light and generally along and north of I70
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

The main weather of the period may be the lingering showers
associated with a frontal passage moving through the area Saturday
morning.  Behind this front, winds are expected to be gusty as a
tight pressure gradient sets up across the area for the morning and
afternoon hours.  Sustained northwest winds up to 25 mph are
expected with gusts between 35-40 mph possible through the early
afternoon.  Temperatures will be slightly cooler this day with CAA
funneling into the area, with highs in the low 50s.

From here, dry conditions are expected for the entire week as
northwest flow sets up aloft.  A shortwave moves over the area
Monday, but brings little more than breezy winds.  By Tuesday, a
deep mid-level trough resides near the Great Lakes, while a surface
ridge begins to move into the southwestern US with that pattern
generally staying stagnant through the period.  Temperatures for the
week look to remain in the 50s, with Wednesday being the coldest day
with highs in the 40s.  Thanksgiving Day still looks on track to be
dry and mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

MVFR to IFR stratus will persist throughout the night with
conditions lowering to LIFR in many spots late tonight. Light
drizzle is possible around sunrise, with the stratus clearing
around midday from west to east. Southerly winds will increase in
the wake of these clouds at 10 to 20 kts on Friday afternoon. A
front moves in Friday evening and will switch winds to the NW.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Skow



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