Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 230805

National Weather Service Topeka KS
305 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A minor upper level trough was rounding the upper level ridge axis
across the southern plains. The upper trough was moving into western
MN and will dig and amplify as it moves into New England Tonight.
The upper level ridge axis will amplify across the plains tonight as
a more amplified upper trough moves onshore across the western US
late Tonight.

Weak low-level CAA across the northern and central plains was
pushing a surface front southeast across central NE early this
morning. The front should move into the northwest counties of the
CWA during the mid morning hours then push southeast across the CWA
during the day. Winds will switch from the south ahead of the front
to the north behind the surface front. The front will come through
dry as the broad upper ridge will continue across the southern and
central plains. Highs should warm into the mid 70s across the
southern half of the CWA and will be a bit cooler across the
northern counties with highs in the lower 70s.

Tonight, the northeast winds will diminish as a broad surface ridge
expands south and southwest across the upper midwest into the
eastern plains. Lows will be a bit cooler but still remain above
seasonal norms, with lower to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

No sensible weather for a majority of the extended period, with the
exception of one system that moves through Tuesday night exiting
northeast Kansas by Wednesday afternoon.  Mid-level ridging over the
central CONUS holds until Tuesday before a shortwave trough moves
across the area bringing chances for thunderstorms.  Another mid-
level ridge builds in from the southwest keeping conditions dry
through the end of the period.  A front is progged to move through
eastern Kansas Saturday.  As for temperatures, Monday looks to be
the coolest of the period, followed by a quick warm up into the mid
and upper 70s Tuesday.  Temperatures in the lower to mid 70s remain
for the rest of the period after the passing system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Short-range models continue to highlight LLWS concerns through
the overnight hours with winds between 1000-2000ft approaching
40kts. A wind shift is expected Sunday morning as a weak cold
front tracks southeastward across the area.




LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.