Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 271142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Modest squall line initiated from upper trough moving through the
Central Plains was making its way east across north central Kansas
early this morning with wind gusts around 35 mph. Other isolated
convection ahead of it appears to be the result of modest isentropic
upglide near the 305K surface in a still rather moist atmosphere
with 850mb dewpoints around 15C and PW around 1.7 inches. Weak winds
and moisture pooled near the old front has allowed low stratus and
fog to form in northern areas.

0Z NMM, ARW, and recent runs of the HRRR have been consistent with
the line gradually diminishing in the next several hours though it
appears to be faster and more robust than these solutions suggest.
Will keep some small chances in eastern areas early this morning,
but forcing for convection continues to look less apparent with time
as isentropic lift weakens and the wave passes. Will maintain some
mention of fog in the north this morning but enough wind and
convection should keep widespread development from occurring. ML CAPE
values will likely rise to around 1500 J/kg this afternoon with
little CIN where decent insolation occurs and there could be
additional weak waves move through the upper southwest flow, so will
keep some small pops this afternoon and evening, with enough low
level jet to support slight chances through the night, but these
values are below the bulk of guidance. Expect more sunshine and the
lack of early precip to allow for much warmer temps in the north and
west today. Fog chances tonight look lower than today with 925mb
winds in the 15-25kt range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Eastern Kansas will be on the western side of an upper level high
over the mid atlantic states Sunday and Monday. The models hint at a
couple of short waves moving through the area and the subtropical
moisture will remain in place. So will keep chances of showers and
thunderstorms going through the forecast. Through the rest of the
week the upper high moves westward, then an upper level ridge build
across the Plains at the end of the week. Models differ with timing
of energy moving out across the area. The subtropical moisture will
continue to be present across the area through the week. Will
continue with low end chances of precipitation through the week as
diurnally driven convection in the afternoon and evening is
possible. Shear will weaken through the week decreasing the severe
potential with the storms. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s are
expected Sunday through next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VFR conditions anticipated. Weak convection will likely linger in
FOE and TOP areas to start but as outflow moves off, lift will
diminish. Winds aloft appear to be strong enough to prevent BR/FG
formation after 06Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65



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