025
FXUS63 KTOP 300245
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
945 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue into Monday, mainly late tonight
  to early Monday morning. Some may be severe producing strong
  winds along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Hot conditions return around Independence Day though not
  looking extreme.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Not planning any making any big changes to the overnight and
Monday morning forecast. The 00Z CAMs still show a potential MCS
diving south late tonight from the convection that is currently
ongoing across the NEB panhandle. However some variations in the
track of the potential MCS has lessened confidence in the
forecast.

Current mesoanalysis shows the theta-e ridge axis across
central KS and the models tend to keep the surface based
instability axis across central KS through the night. This looks
to be a result of the rain cooled airmass that never really
mixed out across eastern KS from earlier today. So am a little
leery of the NAM and FV3 solutions that want to track the
storms into northeast KS. But most if not all solutions
continues to bring precip into at least the western half of the
forecast area by 12Z. Perhaps the bigger signal from the 00Z
runs is the greater inhibition over the eastern half of the
forecast area due to the early day convection. And the HRRR is
starting to show a weakening trend to the convection as it moves
southeast. So I may make some tweaks to the wind grids and back
off on the gusts some as well as the POP grids. Higher
probabilities still look to be over north central KS, but these
may gradually decrease towards east central KS.

Overall still think that showers and storms will move into parts
of north central KS. Whether they hold together to move through
the entire forecast area is in question.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Thunderstorms continue to develop along an outflow boundary south of
Interstate 35 early this afternoon. This outflow boundary has
stabilized much of the remainder of the area with temperatures in
the lower 70s to mid 80s and cirrus blowoff overhead. Rich surface
moisture remains in place over/near northwest Kansas long the
synoptic front.

Will keep small thunderstorm chances in place into the early evening
with a weak upper wave nearby and late June insolation returning,
but expect most of the activity to from well west and move east
across Kansas overnight. This is seen in recent HRRR runs and the
12Z NSSL-MPAS runs that had a decent handle on the early-day
convection. MUCAPE values vary, but a few thousand J/kg seem likely
with modest a modest low level jet upstream and precipitable water
values around 1.75 inches supporting a severe and heavy rain threat.
Recent HRRR runs also suggest some locally-developing storms in
apparent warm-air advection over the stable boundary layer after
sunset. The isolated heavy rainfall areas from today will need to be
monitored for flooding, but a more progressive system overall seems
favored to limit flooding concerns. An upper wave to the north
should shove the effective boundary and higher PW airmass south
through the day Monday for decreasing precipitation chances.

Somewhat cooler and drier air works in for the next few periods.
Southerly low-level flow returns in the middle to late week as an
upper ridge builds east from the Rockies for warmer and more humid
conditions around Thursday. Storm chances may return though capping
may again be present.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Reasonable consistency in the last several runs of the HRRR
provides some confidence to include a tempo group for TSRA as a
potential linear MCS moves through. Timing and intensity of the
storms may still be adjusted through the evening. Until then
expect VFR conditions this evening. CIGS are forecast to improve
by mid-day as SHRA moves east. There are indications for some
isolated SHRA redeveloping in the afternoon Monday. Coverage on
the CAMs is to isolated to mention in the forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Wolters