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000
FXUS63 KTOP 250527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

With hit and miss light rain showers near terminals will continue
with VCSH for the first half of the forecast period. Winds pick up
gusts in the next few hours and continue through the morning into
the afternoon, before diminishing toward sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...67