Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 122339
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
539 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Surface high pressure will continue to build south and southeast
tonight across eastern Kansas then move off to the east allowing for
return southeast flow during the day on Saturday. Dry cold advection
will continue through the night. Aloft a northwest flow pattern will
persist across the Central Plains through Saturday. Models show mid
level frontogenesis on the west side of the surface ridge initially
across north central Kansas then shifting eastward through northeast
Kansas on Saturday. Forecast soundings along with layer omega
forecasts suggest that the lift will be shallow and weak and will
mainly result in a mid level cloud deck across the area. Better
saturation is to the north of the forecast area and models continue
to keep the area dry so will maintain a dry forecast. Temperatures
tonight should fall off into the single digits in the far northeast
under the surface ridge to the teens in central Kansas. Highs on
Saturday will struggle to reach the freezing mark across the area
due to clouds and easterly winds off the arctic surface high.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Northwest flow pattern aloft persists through early next week as a
series of nuisance embedded shortwave troughs impacts the region
beginning early Sunday. Latest model guidance is still in agreement
with the isentropic lift increasing by 12Z Sunday as the primary
area of moisture resides over MO through eastern Oklahoma. The NAM
is still the outlier with a higher aerial coverage of precip while
the GFS, ECMWF, and SREF runs have been more consistent and similar.
However, did increases pops especially over east central Kansas
where forecast soundings still show light freezing drizzle perhaps
switching to drizzle as temps warm above freezing mid morning.
Across north central KS, winds become light enough with high sfc
saturation to insert patchy fog just before sunrise. As the warm
front pushes northward through the day, highs Sunday are actually
mild in upper 40s to lower 50s. The next much weaker wave comes
through central Kansas Monday morning with a brief mention of
sprinkles for central KS.

On Monday evening into Tuesday, ECMWF is still advertising a decent
shortwave trough tracking southeast through Missouri, perhaps
clipping far northeast Kansas. Added a slight chance for showers
given the GFS is similar with the wave but slightly slower and
further east. Otherwise major weather story for the week is spring
like temperatures broad upper ridging brings sunny skies through
Friday. 850 mb temps get a huge boost between 13C and 17C.
Coordinated with surrounding offices to raise highs into the lower
70s with more temp uncertainty as a cold front is progged to arrive

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Expecting CIGS to remain above 3kft during the entire period at
all terminals. Expect to see mid level clouds to build in over the
terminals and last much of the forecast period. Winds will slowly
veer to the ESE by morning and strengthen a bit into the day as a
weak low develops to the north over NE/SD region.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake


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