Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 292015
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

A large surface ridge of high pressure was slowly and steadily
building east this afternoon, dominating the region with pleasant
fall-like temperatures and generally light northeast winds. A few
clouds have developed this afternoon at the top of the mixed layer
but should dissipate rapidly by early evening. Tonight will be clear
and likely becoming calm across much of the area, especially in
valleys. There may be enough residual surface moisture from rain
last weekend that it could support fog...mainly shallow and
patchy...across parts of the area with a focus in valleys. There is
probably a better chance for this to develop in north central KS
closer to the center of the high while there may be enough light
wind just off the surface to mitigate fog potential farther east.
Friday will be almost identical to Thursday with little to no
airmass change expected, although temperatures should warm 1-3
degrees under mostly sunny skies and with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Persistent closed upper low across the Mid Atlantic region begins to
retrograde to the west Friday night and Saturday. Forecast soundings
throughout the CWA indicate a very dry profile while lapse rates are
fairly weak through Saturday evening. Do believe though that some
cloudiness will increase over far eastern areas during the day on
Saturday, however believe most of northeast KS will remain mostly
sunny. Highs during the afternoon are persistent with previous
trends with readings in the lower 70s Saturday and upper 70s on
Sunday as sfc winds veer to the southeast as the upper system lifts
towards the Great Lakes region.

Upper pattern change commences on Monday as a deepening mid level
trough dips towards the southwest CONUS before slowly lifting into
our region beginning Tuesday into Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF,
while persistent with their previous runs, are not consistent with
each other on the track and speed. Ecmwf is a bit faster and not as
poignant with the upper dynamics while the GFS is stronger and poses
the potential for a few strong storms across central KS Tuesday
afternoon and evening a decent dry line sets up. Will continue to
monitor trends, but overall a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms will likely impact the area Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. Thereafter, cooler airmass downstream of the wave
cools temps back into the lower 70s for highs with lows falling back
into the 50s once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period although there
will be a period of FEW to BKN clouds in the 030 to 040 through
23Z but most likely will be VFR. There is a very small chance for
reduced vis at TOP/MHK between 06Z-12Z as winds become light but
at this time appears more likely to be VFR.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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