Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 242328

528 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Large scale upper trof continues to move eastward across the US, as
embedded shortwave lifts into the Great Lakes today.  Cool advection
in northwest flow has kept highs in the 40s, as clearing moves in
from west to east.

Little sensible weather changes tonight into tomorrow.  Despite
passing shortwave trof in the flow bringing a few clouds toward
morning, still anticipate lows to drop near 20.  Weak mid level
ridging behind this wave and mid level warm air advection combined
with a swing around to southerly winds at the surface should bring
highs back into the middle and upper 40s for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A progressive shortwave trough traverses southeast through the
central plains Tuesday evening. Upper ridging amplifies east over
the western CONUS at that time, allowing the main precip axis to
skirt just north and east of the area. However, latest operational
and ensemble guidance is trending slightly further south with the
main area of lift coinciding with a short period of saturation in
the ice growth layer by 06Z. Expanded slight chances for a light
rain and snow mix during the early evening over far northeast
Kansas, transitioning to light snow after midnight. Little to no
accumulation is expected as the wave quickly exits near sunrise.
Winds increase and veer back to the northwest Wednesday afternoon as
speeds increase between 15 and 20 mph sustained. Decent CAA followed
by a modified sfc high pressure into Thursday gives way to temps
falling back into the low 40s for highs and lows in the 20s.
Thanksgiving Day remains on track to be mostly sunny and cool with
light winds around 10 mph.

Cooler temperatures do not last long as mid level flow becomes
quasi-zonal in advance of a shortwave trough building to the north
and west, allowing for warm air and southerly flow to return to
the area. Temps Friday and Saturday boost into the 50s and 60s with
overnight lows mild from the upper 20s to near 40 degrees Saturday
morning. Northern stream upper trough crosses the northern plains
and surges a strong cold front through on Sunday, as temps fall back
into the 30s and low 40s for highs Sunday and Monday. Cold front
passes through dry as gulf moisture spreads north into the southern
CONUS Sunday evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at showers
developing along and just north of the cold front, perhaps impacting
far east central areas Monday evening. Temps at this time hover in
the upper 30s with higher confidence in precip occurring further south
and east.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will be the dominate trend through the TAF period.
Winds will back by mid-day on Tuesday out of the southwest.




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