Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 141950
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A modified cold front gradually pushes through the area into this
evening and overnight with dry air moving in.

- A few spotty sprinkles or a light shower may be possible through
this evening (about 14% chance or less).

- Pleasant conditions in place for several days with no
  significant weather changes expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Across the CONUS, a broad low amplitude ridge is in place from the
Mid Atlantic and southeastern CONUS into the lower MS Valley.
Northern stream energy is situated across the Great Lakes. A deep
trough remains over the southwestern CONUS and forecast to become a
cutoff low. Southwest flow aloft remains just south of the area with
subtropical moisture into the Southern Plains. An Omega block
appears to be in place just off the west coast into the Pacific
northwest region.

Across the forecast area, a modified cold front is very slow to
progress through the area with a prefrontal trough just exiting to
the southeast in advance of the trailing cold front. Due to lack of
upper air movement, expect this process to take another 12 or so hrs
before the front fully clears the area. Any meaningful forcing for
ascent appears situated southeast of the area with a shortwave
displaced into the southern Plains. With dry air spilling into the
region gradually, and a lack of forcing this far north, appears to
be little reason to support anything more than a spotty shower or
two which may only cause a few sprinkles. Most likely a deck of low
level stratus will continue to build within the cooler air
especially into this evening and last through part of the overnight
or possibly early tomorrow morning. Expecting clearing to take
place more fully into tomorrow as dry air fully builds into the
area. Return flow doesn`t develop until mid to late next week. Thus,
have maintained a dry forecast until the end of the period. Even
then, most solutions in the long range periods suggest best forcing
mechanisms to be south of the area. In the meantime, highs remain
mostly in the 50s and 60s with lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A low level stratus deck continues to spread into the region
through this evening and at least part of the overnight period.
Still not expecting lower than marginal VFR conditions. Could
develop a few areas of sprinkles but no hazardous weather is
anticipated. Cigs improve into the morning hours tomorrow with
clearing conditions as dry air continues to spill into the
region.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake


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