Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 301124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Early Monday morning, surface high pressure was centered over
southern KS and building east, with a light south breeze starting to
pick up across the area. Morning temperatures were highly dependent
upon the wind, with calm areas in valleys were experiencing plenty
of cold air drainage and falling into the lower 30s while breezy
higher elevation areas were in the low to middle 40s. Regardless of
the starting temperature, the whole area should warm quickly into
the 60s by noon and low to middle 70s for afternoon highs. The south
to southwest breeze will increase through the day with gusts of
20-25 mph expected in north central KS, but a bit lighter at 15-20
in east central KS. Dewpoints will start out in the upper 20s to low
30s this morning, and with much drier air above the boundary layer
can expect daytime mixing to promote continued dry air at the
surface. The minimum RH today is likely to range from 17-23% across
the entire area with the lowest values likely in areas of east
central KS. From a fire weather perspective, the lowest RH is likely
to align with the lighter winds so do not expect to meet red flag
conditions, although it looks to be quite close and the fire danger
will certainly be very high. Winds will decrease quickly around
sunset, with a weak front forecast to move through the area
overnight with a shift from the north. See some potential to end up
a bit cooler tonight if winds can go calm for a few hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Models continue to show a mid-level trough moving into the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday and advancing eastward into the Northern Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Surface high pressure will be in
place over the region on Tuesday and will shift southeast of the
area Tuesday night with southwesterly surface winds on Wednesday
ahead of the approaching system. Should have decent enough mixing on
Tuesday to boost temperatures into the mid/upper 70s and possibly
near 80 degrees. With the cold front not expected to move into north
central Kansas until early evening on Wednesday, the southwesterly
surface winds will provide warm-air advection and decent moisture
advection through the entire day, resulting in the warmest
temperatures of the week. Have continued to trend toward the
high-end of guidance with Wednesday highs soaring into the low/mid
80s and dewpoints reaching into the mid/upper 50s to near 60. With
the slight delay in the frontal passage, expect most of the CWA to
remain dry on Wednesday with only slight chance PoPs in for far
northern Kansas. Models seem to be coming into better agreement with
the speed of the front as it tracks over the CWA with the front
exiting the area Thursday morning. Models continue to show a chance
for decent QPF Wednesday night, so have likely to definite PoPs
CWA-wide. There looks to be only a small window of time in which
storms may be surface-based across northern and north central Kansas
early in the evening before becoming more elevated as temperatures
drop off through the evening hours. Mid-level lapse rates look
decent with MUCAPE values initially upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg with
30-35kts of 0-6km bulk shear. While storms will likely become
elevated as they track southeastward across the CWA, the low-level
jet also looks to increase through the evening hours, so could
initially see a threat for large hail and then large hail and some
strong winds later through the evening with that increasing
low-level jet. The model trend has been toward a more progressive
exit on Thursday, with a chance for some lingering showers and
isolated thunderstorms Thursday. This cold front looks to get hung
up near or just north of the KS/OK and MO/AR state lines, keeping
precipitation ongoing along and north of the boundary Thursday into
Friday. With the ECMWF being a bit further north with this
stationary boundary, it keeps light precipitation lingering across
east central Kansas Thursday night into Friday. In addition to this
lingering boundary, models show another mid-level trough sweeping
eastward across the central U.S. in which another wave of moisture
may try to merge with the moisture from the lingering boundary. Due
to model differences in the location of the boundary and the
strength of the next wave, there is some uncertainty with PoPs for
Thursday through Friday, but they all agree that conditions should
be dry by Friday night and remain dry through the weekend as surface
high pressure shifts over the area.

As for temperatures, they will begin to trend cooler on Thursday
with highs in the 60s and Friday/Friday night continues to look the
coolest with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. As winds shift
back to the southwest with the passing surface high, expect highs to
moderate back into the 60s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with the
exception of a possible brief period of 5-7SM visibility at MHK
through 13Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






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