Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252044
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

A mid-level wave traverses the area tonight, although with high
pressure in place will see little more than some clouds this
afternoon moving eastward tonight. Clear skies will lead to
temperatures dropping into the 20s across northeast Kansas. The
clear skies and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as the
high shifts east of the area. On the lee sides of the Rockies in
Colorado, a deepening low pressure will increase the pressure
gradient over central Kansas. Gusty winds up to 30 mph will be
seen across the western half of the CWA, along with minimum RH
values in the low 20s. With this combination, very high fire
danger is expected in the afternoon hours. Southerly flow and
clear skies will aid in bringing temperatures into the upper 50s
and low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

The aforementioned surface low in Colorado continues to deepen
Monday night into Tuesday.  This will bring another fairly gusty day
to the area with the GFS keen on precipitation in east central
Kansas during the afternoon.  The ECMWF keeps the bulk of energy
more south and east of the area, however went with chance PoPs for
Tuesday afternoon into the evening.  Have also included a slight
chance for thunder during the afternoon as a surface front looks to
set up across the CWA. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday
with, what looks like, to be the better chances for some
precipitation.

The models seem to be in decent agreement with the overall pattern
of a closed low over southern California lifting as an open wave and
working its way across the central Plains Wednesday and Wednesday
night.  Besides the NAM, which lags the surface low, models indicate
this low will be located across southeastern Kansas by Wednesday
evening, and over Indiana by Thursday morning.  The GFS has
consistently indicated sufficient instability reaching east central
Kansas Wednesday afternoon, so have included the mention of
thunderstorms during this timeframe.  Whether or not any storms
would be severe is still a bit uncertain with other models lagging
in the amount of CAPE available.

The ECMWF is a bit quicker on ending precipitation in the area while
the GFS indicates some lagging precipitation in very eastern Kansas
by sunrise Thursday.  If this precipitation does last into the
morning, temperatures would allow for a chance for some snow.  From
Thursday through Saturday, another stretch of dry weather is
forecast as an upper ridge builds into the central US.  Some small
chances for rain return Sunday, although there is much model
disagreement that far out.  Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s
the ladder half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds
becoming light after 00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Heller


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