Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 170456
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The overall synoptic pattern is one of mid level ridging over much
of the Great Plains and the west while the mean westerlies remain
north along the Canadian boarder. A weak upper disturbance was noted
in the 19Z water vapor imagery across western KS and eastern CO. At
the surface, a broad ridge of high pressure stretching from the
upper Midwest to the southern high plains was gradually weakening
and a relatively moist boundary layer remained over central and
eastern KS.

The forecast for tonight and Monday continues with a dry weather.
The weak upper disturbance to the west of the forecast area will be
something to watch through the day Monday as it begins to phase with
the upper flow and moves east. All the guidance suggests the forcing
associated with the disturbance should remain just to the west of
the forecast area through the afternoon. And models tend to keep the
deeper moisture west of the area as well. Models develop a relative
minimum in dewpoints across northeast KS overnight. This may allow
for temps to cool into the upper 60s by Monday morning. Models don`t
show much change to the airmass for tomorrow with no significant low
level temp advection. So the forecast is calling for highs similar
of slightly warmer than todays with readings in the lower and mid
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The weather pattern for the upcoming week will be dominated by a
large upper level ridge across the central CONUS with the jet stream
shunted up into the northern states. A quasi-stationary zonal boundary
will oscillate N-S over the course of the week across the mid-
Missouri River valley, but looks to remain mostly north of the
TOP CWA. H850 temps will rise into the mid to upper 20s Celsius
with corresponding surface temps returning to the upper 90s to low
100s. Flow off the Gulf won`t be too strong, but this moisture
advection and evapotranspiration off the local vegetation will be
enough to keep dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s through the
week (likely higher is spots).

The current H500 cutoff low over the Front Range will migrate
northeastward as a shortwave and lead to the development of a
convective complex over western Nebraska/Kansas on Monday
afternoon and evening. The southern fringes of this system may
clip northern portions of the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning, though marginal mid-level lapse rates and weak shear
would not bode well for any sustained convection in NE Kansas. An
additional round of convection over eastern Nebraska on Tuesday
evening may push the front close to KS, but the EC/NAM/GFS differ
on how far south the boundary will sag. The longer range guidance,
however, remains in good agreement in keeping this hot and
stagnant pattern into next weekend and have extended the excessive
heat watch another 24 hours through 8 pm Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the 06Z TAFs, no significant changes to the going forecast.
Expecting southerly winds to remain with some stronger winds above
10kts around the KMHK vicinity.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Drake



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