Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 221727

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Convection that formed along the Palmer Divide late this afternoon
has been weakening as it moves into northwest Kansas. This is
despite their being a weak trough from east central Nebraska to west
central Kansas. Upper ridge otherwise remains in control with 597dam
500mb heights in its center.

Models remain consistent with a slight nudge up in low level temps
today. Recent trends for dewpoints to be above most guidance lead to
a slightly more humid day as well, bringing apparent temps well into
the 105-115 range. Upper heights weaken a bit tonight with weak
surface convergence remaining to the west. GFS ensembles in
particular suggest some potential for precip there to make its way
into north central Kansas late tonight with better low level jet
support than early this morning, though would expect any precip to
be light and spotty.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Heat continues to be a concern going forward through the weekend.
Models differ somewhat with how far the frontal boundary may move
into north central and northeast Kansas on Sunday. Current blend
would place the front from NW Missouri into north central Kansas.
This will favor areas from near Interstate 70 and south for another
day of excessive heat on Sunday and will extend the excessive heat
warning into Sunday for roughly areas along and slightly north of
Interstate 70. Saturday looks to be extremely hot with highs around
100 to 105 with heat indices peaking in the 105 to 111 degree range
in the afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dew
points in the mid 60s to lower 70s will produce heat indices around
105 on Sunday for areas near and south of I-70. The frontal boundary
looks to stall across northern Kansas on Sunday. A shortwave moving
across Canada and the Northern Plains Sunday and Sunday night will
flatten the upper high. By early next week the upper flow will
become northwest across the Plains as the upper high retrogrades to
the west over the Rockies. The slow moving cold front will linger
across northern Kansas for much of next week. Weak waves move
through off and on through the week across the Central Plains. The
low level jet and isentropic lift along and north of the frontal
boundary will keep chances of thunderstorms in the forecast through
the end of next week. Expect to see nocturnal convection that
develops across Nebraska and northern Kansas progress east and
southeast across northeast Kansas. Ample deep layer moisture will
keep heavy rainfall possible through much of the week. Cooler
temperatures are expected Monday through Thursday with readings near
seasonal values or slightly cooler and will vary depending on the
amount of clouds and precipitation across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. A very isolated
shower or thunderstorm is possible overnight. However, confidence
is much to low to introduce any mention at this time.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ021>024-026-

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-



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