Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 110412
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1112 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Sfc boundary now moving south into KS out of Nebraska will combine
with daytime heating to produce scattered convection this evening
mainly north of I-70.  Meanwhile a second area of convection may
also develop nearer to the instability axis from Salina southeast
toward Emporia this evening as the wave now across north central KS
and associated convection moves SE.  CAPE and shear combination
would support some hail and wind threat despite meager mid lvl lapse
rates.  The stronger 850mb wind fields and associated WAA/moisture
convergence will shift into OK after 00z so expect greatest coverage
in the 00z to 06z time frame before most of the precip shifts south.
 On Friday it would appear that there may be a break in the
organized convection as sfc high pressure tries to nose into the
region from the northeast.  Forcing should remain NW of the area so
would expect mainly dry weather during the day on Friday with below
avg temps.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Elongated upper trough drops southward across Canada into the
western high plains region Friday night into Saturday. Convection
develops across the higher elevations towards western KS. There is a
slight chance these storms may impact north central KS after
midnight, however more likely chances occur Saturday afternoon
evening as the upper trough axis shifts southeast. Warm front
position still varies somewhat between the operational GFS, NAM, and
ECMWF. GFS is furthest north and east into our CWA with ample
instability and effective developing along and south of the
boundary. An MCS is forecast to develop across central NE in the
evening hours, diving southeast into northeast KS overnight. Decent
low level jet and effective shear throughout the evening may produce
a few strong wind gusts, especially over north central areas.

Scattered storms remain possible through Sunday as the base of the
trough axis slows eastward over the Dakotas. Through the week,
several waves within the mean westerly flow aloft will keep rain
chances off and on over the CWA. By Monday, GFS is the outlier in
storms reorganizing along the frontal boundary near the KS/OK
border. There is a slight chance mention that scattered activity may
form north of the front into our southern areas during the afternoon
Monday. Models are more consistent than previous runs with the
shortwave ridge bringing temporary relief from rain chances on
Tuesday before a progressive, small upper trough brings another
potential round of precip Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Cloud cover
and weak wind flow keep temps below normal in the low 80s for highs
and lows in the mid 60s. By Thursday, sfc troughing develops towards
the panhandles region, inducing much southerly warm advection.
Indications are we may be back in the 90s by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

04Z satellite shows mid clouds stretching back to northwest KS and
the models persist in keeping these clouds over much of the area
through the night. Meanwhile low level dry air should continue
advecting south. So chances for fog continue to look small. Some
shower activity continues to persist across east central KS and I
expect this to continue to slowly shift south through the night as
the 850MB front pushes south. So VFR conditions are forecast to
continue Through Friday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters



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