Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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135
FXUS63 KTOP 060912
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A mid-level shortwave trough extended as far south as northeast
Kansas early this morning, resulting in a stratus cloud deck
skimming across far northern and far northeast Kansas. Some short-
range models are still suggesting some patchy fog may develop early
this morning near the KS/NE border as a result of the extra moisture
moving into the area with stratus deck.  This stratus deck combined
with some scattered mid-level clouds elsewhere across the region
will result in low temperatures in the 20s early this morning.
Models show this shortwave trough quickly exiting to the east this
morning with a weak ridge extending into the area this afternoon
into this evening. However, a weak embedded wave located over
Montana this morning should become a more well-defined trough over
the far Northern Plains this afternoon into this evening, deepening
and extending southward toward the area overnight into Sunday
morning. Model soundings show cloud cover scattering out later this
morning, with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. With
surface low pressure to the north and surface high pressure to the
south today, winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon. These
winds combined with mostly sunny skies should aid in some warm air
advection and afternoon highs reaching into the mid to upper 40s
(possibly even around 50 degrees), with the coolest conditions in
north central Kansas where some snow pack still exists.  As the mid-
level trough approaches the area overnight tonight, expect winds to
start shifting to the west and northwest with some mid-level clouds
possibly moving in before sunrise. As a result, expect low
temperatures tonight to be a few degrees warmer in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong clipper system will be moving into the Great Lakes region
on Sunday with a powerful cold front moving south across the Plains
and into Kansas by mid day Sunday. A secondary cold surge moves
through very early Monday morning. Expect a strong pressure gradient
at the surface and strong uni-directional northwesterly wind field
through the mid levels of the troposphere Sunday through Monday.
Also expect a deeply mixed boundary layer through this period, with
the exception being perhaps brief periods of reduced mixing on
Sunday night. Mean mixed layer winds on Sunday peak in the 30-40 kt
range and should be a good indicator of expected peak gusts although
could be briefly higher immediately behind the surface front
passage. RH will also be lower, probably approaching 30% or a bit
lower for a period on Sunday especially immediately behind the front
as temperatures will be initially warm but the airmass dry. This
could result in a tricky fire weather scenario with the wind shift,
increased gust speeds, and low RH...particularly for any early
weekend burns that may be left smoldering. Then, after the second
cold surge comes through early Monday morning, expected renewed
and even stronger wind gusts possibly on the order of 40-50 mph.
Also expect a chance for snow flurries to develop with a
relatively deep stratocu cloud layer likely to form at the top of
the boundary layer but below the inversion, and with lapse rates
supporting weak instability in this layer. Any flurries should end
by late in the day with winds also decreasing by sunset.

Temperatures warm for the remainder of the week as the cold airmass
shifts east. Will likely see a pretty strong gradient in
temperatures from west to east at least Tues/Wed as 850 T is
forecast to range a solid 10 degrees from SW to NE across the
forecast area on these days. Expect to climb well into the 40s and
approach the 50s by the end of the work week with dry weather likely
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A few models show stratus with MFVR ceilings moving southeast
from eastern NE across the KTOP and KFOE terminals. I do not have
confidence in this occurring but did keep SCT stratus with MVFR
ceilings in the TAF at KTOP and KFOE. IF skies clear out by
sunrise there may be some patchy ground fog at both KTOP and KMHK.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan



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