Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 131732
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1132 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Mid level low pressure is beginning to lift out of the southwest
US. A band of east-west orientated mid level frontogenesis is
currently moving over southern KS. Despite the moisture and lift
spreading over the area the low levels remain fairly dry therefore
precip is struggling to reach the ground. High res models move
this band through the forecast area late this morning and into the
afternoon. Given the depth of the low level dry air a decent
amount of lift would be needed to saturate this layer. Also, there
would need to be some residence time to allow saturation to take
place. The best chances for this to come together and for light
precip to reach the ground will be locations along and north of
I-70. Return flow at the surface should allow surface temperatures
to warm into the mid to upper 30s so expect rain would be the
main precip type. Highs today are forecasted to reach the upper
40s to lower 50s. The area of lift will begin to progress eastward
this evening and should exit the area by midnight. Skies will
clear from north to south tonight, which could set up a gradient
in the low temperatures. Across northern KS lows will drop into
the upper 20s, while clouds over east central KS should keep temps
in the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The area remains under northwest flow for Tuesday and into
Wednesday, which keeps daytime highs generally in the 50s - which
is still above normal for this time of year. Overnight lows in the
20s Tuesday night rise back toward the low 30s for Wednesday
night. Flow aloft flattens somewhat for Thursday and also brings
in drier air from the southwest at the surface for the mid to late
work week. Have highs in the upper 60s for Thursday and could
still be a few degrees too cool. Slight cooling in the mid levels
for Friday and Saturday as an upper low moves across the southern
plains and wraps slightly cooler air into its northern periphery.
Think sensible weather will not see much impact from this
however, and continued highs in the 60s for both days and into
Sunday. Sunday also brings the approach of the next upper longwave
trof, with possible afternoon showers or thunder.

Main concerns in the extended likely to be the drier air for the
Thursday Friday timeframe, which could exacerbate fire weather
concerns - although at this time winds are not all that strong
for this forecast period. Worth keeping an eye on as week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light rain
showers currently along a line from CNK to MKC will persist into
the afternoon and gradually dissipate. Winds will back from the S to
the NW overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Skow



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