Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 242328

628 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830z shows building upper ridge across the
intermountain west with high clouds spilling over the top of the
ridge and into the county warning area (cwa). This area of high
clouds will shift off to the southeast this evening leaving mostly
clear skies with light west southwest winds. A front now moving
into far northern NE will slowly progress southward into the far
northwest cwa by midnight and near the I 35 corridor by 12z Saturday.
In advance of the front...the light winds...clear skies and moisture
pooling ahead of the boundary could help to enhance areas of
fog...especially ahead of the front in low lying areas and near
rivers and lakes. This would primarily apply to the southeast 2/3 of
the cwa. Any fog/stratus that does develop should dissipate by mid
morning leaving mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.
With the boundary then stalling across the southern cwa and
gradually washing appreciable cooling of temperatures
should be noted. In fact...with more sunshine than
today...temperatures in many locations will warmer than today.
Highs should range from the upper 70s near the Nebraska border to
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Upper ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday into the
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft by Sunday night. Warm
advection and deeper mixing on Sunday should see highs in the lower
to middle 80s. The upper trough and associated jet will move
eastward across the Rockies Monday and into the Central Plains
Monday night and exiting on Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to
move through north central and northeast Kansas Monday and Monday
night. Deeper moisture and instability will be shunted off to the
southeast and east. Will maintain the highest pops in east central
Kansas and lower to the northwest. Atmosphere still appears to be
capped during the daytime on Monday so the front is expected to move
through dry most areas. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will be Monday night and Tuesday. Models have sped up
a little and move the upper trough east of Kansas Tuesday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. Cooler seasonal temperatures
are then expected in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday and will
continue through Thursday. Another wave will move through the
northwest flow Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited and any
chance will be across the far eastern counties of northeast and east
central Kansas. Cool high pressure builds into the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday with highs on Friday in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR to begin forecast period as weak boundary approaches from the
north. Drier air settles in behind the boundary where short term
guidance is indicating should stay north of terminals overnight.
This scenario would provide adequate surface moisture to develop
areas of fog between 09Z and 12Z. MVFR visibilities begin as early
as 06Z and fall between IFR and LIFR from 09Z onward. Visibility
clears to VFR around 15Z as light northeast winds veer towards the
east in the afternoon.




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