Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 150505
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1105 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Upper level ridging will build over the western CONUS today and
tomorrow. Cirrus blow off from a cutoff low over the Southern
Plains will decay this afternoon and evening as subsidence deepens
through the column. Winds will remain from the north to northwest
upstream of a surface ridge axis, which will slide southeast
through the area midday tomorrow. A thermal ridge will build in
its wake with H850 temps rising 5 C on Wednesday afternoon. As a
result, have raised highs by a couple of degrees in the west to
better account for this airmass. This regime change will set the
stage for a warm end of the week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Split upper level flow will continue across the conus. An upper
ridge will amplify across the northern branch of the upper jet
across the northern plains, while an upper level trough embedded
within the southern stream of the the upper jet will slowly move
northeast out of Mexico into TX.

The warm and dry weather will continue across the CWA through
Sunday. Westerly 850mb winds will gradually back to the south by
Sunday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s on Thursday with upper
60s to lower 70s on Friday. There may be some residual moisture
advection through the weekend, which may keep highs slightly
cooler in the mid to upper 60s.

A more amplified upper level trough will move into the the
southwestern US on Sunday, then shift east across the plains
Monday through Tuesday night. There may be enough moisture return,
instability and ascent for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms on Monday. A weak cold front will move through the
CWA late Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. The GFS is a
bit slower moving the upper trough east and keeps the chances for
post frontal showers through Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be a bit
cooler with upper 50s to lower 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Northwest flow with little or no forcing and dry air in place
will allow VFR conditions to persist.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Thursday, a lee surface trough will deepen across the high plains
which will increase the surface pressure gradient across eastern
KS. The pressure trough will extend from northeast NE, southwest
into eastern CO and northeast NM, therefore winds will be from the
southwest and may increase to 15 to 20 MPH with some gusts above
25 MPH. A few locations across the CWA may briefly reach extreme
fire danger during the afternoon hours. Minimum RHs will range
from 25-30 percent with steep lapse rates up to 900mb.

Friday, The surface pressure gradient across the CWA will decrease,
so wind gusts may not reach above 25 MPH. However, the mixing depth
increases to 850mb. Weak moisture advection may keep RHs near or
above 30 percent. The range land fire index will be in the high to
very high category.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan



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