Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 192333
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Shortwave trough axis was centered across west central Kansas
this afternoon per water vapor imagery. Two lobes of vorticity
were providing the lift associated with the swath of light showers
continuing to develop and lift northward towards northeast Kansas.
High temperatures initially in the middle 60s have held steady or
fell back a few degrees as lower clouds and bands of precip have
begun to enter the Council Grove and Emporia areas. Short term
guidance has been consistent with the current forecast thinking
for this evening, weakening the current precip bands while the
secondary lobe of vorticity provides additional warm advection
precipitation to develop over southern Kansas, lifting back into
the area throughout the evening. QPF amounts are generally light
and less than a quarter of an inch given the shallow moisture
profiles initially present. Best chances for seeing the most
rainfall is generally south of Interstate 70 or east of highway 75
through Friday morning.

Could see some residual showers on Friday, but should mainly focus
over far eastern Kansas. Temporary subsidence builds in behind
the wave, resulting in a dry yet mostly cloudy afternoon. Readings
peak near 70 degrees in north central areas, while thicker cloud
cover holds temps to the middle 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

For Friday night through Sunday, the models show a persistent warm
air advection pattern within the low levels with some degree of
elevated instability. The NAM tends to favor elevated storms
Saturday morning while the GFS develops storms Sunday morning.
The only thing that seems to differ in the two solutions is the
GFS showing a little more inhibition Saturday morning. With models
in fairly good agreement with the overall pattern and the
development of isentropic lift and theta-e advection, feel like a
chance POP seems reasonable in spite of the inconsistent QPF
forecasts from the various solutions. Overall, deep layer shear
appears to be rather marginal for supercell storms, although mid
level lapse rates between 6 and 7 C/km may be enough to pose a
potential for some isolated hail. The temp forecast will be
conditional on how much precip and cloud cover stick around
through the day. Although 850 temps continue to support a gradual
warming trend through the weekend. Additionally increasing low
level moisture should lead to more mild overnight temps by Sunday
morning.

For Sunday night and Monday...The ECMWF and GFS continue to
suggest that convection off the high plains could congeal into an
MCS and move across northeast KS. Because of this have continued
with likely POPs across north central KS Sunday night and eastern
KS Monday. Have temps a little cooler across eastern KS for
Monday given the possible clouds and precip through the first half
of the day. Highs may be warmer across north central KS if the sun
is able to break out by the afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday continues to look like a active weather
pattern as models maintain a moist and conditionally unstable
airmass with southwest flow aloft. Because of this it is
difficult to rule out precip chances for any period. Therefore
have gone with the model consensus through the extended. There
doesn`t appear to be any big temp swings through next week so lows
should continue to be around 60s and in the lower 60s while highs
reach the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Chances for showers for the 00Z TAFs remains off and on this
evening into the overnight hours. Main question will be how low
the CIG/VIS actually will go. Have tried to pick out the most
likely timing of weak areas of lift which would help enhance a
few areas of broad showers overnight as the atmosphere saturates
further down. CIGS are likely to lower possibly into the IFR
category and with light to moderate showers, expect VIS reductions
as well. By mid morning tomorrow, expect that conditions will
improve to MVFR for much of the day.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake



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