000
FXUS63 KTOP 111139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND
UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS AT 730Z SAT...AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BY 15Z SAT. THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DIGGINGS H5 TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND LAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A BROAD SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND WESTERN MO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SOME AREAS COULD REACH AS LOW AS THE MID 30S...GENERALLY
EAST OF US HIGHWAY 75. IF DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S...THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN LOW-LYING AREAS TO THE EAST OF
US HIGHWAY 75.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS A WEAK H5 TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY REACH AROUND 40 BY 200 AM
BUT COULD HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

THE 6Z NAM MODEL SHOWED ENOUGH ASCENT AND WEAK WAA LATE TONIGHT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. I KEPT THE 15 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE
EXTREME WESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS KEPT THE QPF WEST OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
NORTHWEST FLOW PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON
SUNDAY...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT ALL FURTHER
EAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA. A COMPROMISE OF THE
SOLUTIONS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS...BASICALLY A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN EARLIER AND A SLIGHT SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS IN HIGH
TEMPS FOR THE AREA WAS MADE.

IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE ALOFT ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND MIDDLE 80S WILL RISE FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY.

AS THE SYSTEM IN BAJA ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MR WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THESE
READINGS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AS INITIAL WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
EXITS THE AREA...BUT MORE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXIST FOR FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT TERMINALS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. FROPA IN VCNTY
OF KMHK APPROACHING KTOP/KFOE NEAR 14Z WILL VEER WINDS TO THE
NORTH INCREASING AOA 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON PERIOD. INCLUDED A TEMPO AT KMHK UNTIL 13Z AS LIGHT
WINDS AROUND SUNRISE SLOWLY LIFT VISIBILITY FROM 3 SM.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...BOWEN